Pav's Picks

I understand that it is now Week 4 in the NFL, and I should have started this sooner, but this is going to give you a great money-making opportunity before Vegas sends out Vinnie-Blue-Eyes to put me in a shallow grave.

Either that, or you’ll lose money by taking my advice. I offer no guarantees or promises of any kind whether express or implied.

Here’s how this works, I’m going to give you four NFL Picks + MANDATORY MONDAY* each week just to see how I do against the spread. This week’s spread is based on the odds available at 10:23p.m. EST on October, 1, 2011 at bodog.net/sports/odds/nfl

You guys feel free to make some picks, as well, but if you do, please include the source of your points spread.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals Sun. 1:00p.m.

-This is a no-brainer if there ever was one. The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 and coming off a victory against the New England Patriots, they forced Tom Brady, a.k.a. God, to throw four Interceptions. The Cincinnati Bungles, however, are 1-2 and are actually starting my Mother as the quarterback this week. I hope Buffalo doesn’t Blitz, I have a good relationship with Mom. I will grant that the Bengals have a +3 points differential, but Buffalo’s is +40 and they have scored fifty-six more points.

Here’s a little Math, people:

(Buffalo Point Differential - Cincinnati Point differential) / 3 (games) = Expectation

40 - 3 /3 + = Expectation

37/3 = Expectation

ANSWER: A fuck of a lot more than three.

Pav’s Pick: The smart money says BUFFALO, (-3) ladies.

Detroit Lions (+1) vs. Dallas Cowgirls (Sun 1:00p.m.)

Listen, ladies, there is one thing that has held true this entire season, and that is that Matthew Stafford has emerged as something greater than a human being. He’s thrown 9 touchdowns against two interceptions for 900-something yards. He has a better QB Rating this year than Tom Brady. He has great hair! I mean, what do you want?

…OK, so maybe he doesn’t have great hair.

Anyway, the abject failure Cowgirls haven’t scored nine touchdowns this year…as a team, and Tony Romo is going to be spending more time on his back than Stafford’s prom date when that Lions rush gets to him. Dallas is 2-1 and wins by luck with a +2 points differential while the LIons are 3-0 and a league-leading +55.

Dallas wants to give the Lions a point!?

I’d pick the LIONS to win by ten.

Pav’s Pick: Lions +1

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (Sun 1:00p.m.)

Oh boy, two kids with Down Syndrome in a spelling bee. It’s 0-3 versus 0-3, here, and the first one that manages to spell, “T-D,” right is today’s big winner. The main difference between these teams is that Minnesota has a player in Donovan McNabb that can at least impersonate an NFL Quarterback while Matt Cassel is Nothing without Belichick and the New England Patriots. I saw Matty last weekend working part-time down at Fiorella’s Jack Stack in Overland Park, KS (Great place) because he knows his game isn’t going to keep paying the bills forever.

Either way, the numbers here are really simple. Minnesota has scored sixty points this season (twenty per game) and they have allowed 74 points (24.66-/game) while the Chiefs have scored 27 points—snicker—(9 per game) and have allowed 109 points (36.3 per game). The difference in points per game for Minnesota is 4.66/game and for KC and the Sunshine girls it has been 27.3/game.

Unless basic Math fails me, that means Minnesota should win this one by 1,245 points.

Of course, I only have to give KC three, so that’s what I’m doing.

Pav’s Pick: Sound the Gjallarhorn, Scandinavians -3

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) vs. Houston Texans (Sun 1:00p.m.)

I’ll take the Steelers and the points. I will admit that I’m not confident about this pick, and I could actually see the Texans completely blowing Pittsburgh out in this one. I like the Steelers for the outright win, so I’ll take the four points, but if they lose, it’ll probably be by more than that.

PAV’s PICK: Squealers (+4)

MANDATORY MONDAY:

Indianapolis Colts (+10.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday 8:30p.m.)

-SHIT!!! Whose idea is Mandatory Monday!? What a dumb idea! Look at this points spread!!!

OK, the Colts have the third-worst points Differential in the league at -38, but that’s still only -12.6/game against this ridiculous points spread. On the other hand, to compliment a 2-1 Record, Tampa Bay has a point Differential of zero (Sixty scored, sixty allowed). That means, in six games, the average points Differential between the two teams is Tampa Bay + 6.33.

The Math says to take he Colts, who are starting Curtis Painter. Ironic, because his blood is going to paint the field when the Bucs’ pass rush gets to him at least six times this game.

…who to pick…who to pick…

I HAVE IT!!!

The Over/Under in this game is 40.5.

They won’t score that much.

Pav’s Pick: UNDER

*MANDATORY MONDAY- Pav must pick Monday Night’s game against the spread,[size=50] or over-under,[/size] or at least one Monday night game, should there ever be more than one.

**NOT EDITED FOR CONTENT, INTENTIONALLY OFFENSIVE, JUST DOING WHAT I THINK SOUNDS FUNNY

Things have not went well for my picks, thus far.

Fortunately, there’s still Monday night and thirteen weeks left in the NFL Season, plenty of time to get it back. I think I’ll be keeping the trash-talking to a minimum when it comes to the teams against whom I am picking…from now on.

Now, where’s that Edit button?

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals Sun. 1:00p.m.

Pav’s Pick: Bills

Score: Cincinnati: 23 Buffalo: 20

Result: Loss 0-1

Detroit Lions (+1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (Sun 1:00p.m.)

Pav’s Pick: Lions

Score: Detroit Lions: 34 Dallas Cowboys: 30

Result: Win 1-1

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (Sun 1:00p.m.)

Pav’s Pick: Vikings

Score: Kansas City: 22 Minnesota Vikings: 17

Result: Loss 1-2

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) vs. Houston Texans (Sun 1:00p.m.)

Pav’s Pick: Steelers

Score: Pittsburgh Steelers: 10 Houston Texans: 17

Result: Loss 1-3

***There’s still Monday Night!!!

Notes:

-It looked like I’d lose all four, then it looked like I’d win one and lose three, then it looked like 2-2, and then it looked like 3-1, then 2-2, then 0-4 again. It was a mess all day long, but the Points Spread is a fickle mistress, one day she treats you nice, bakes you cookies, then the next day you’re sleeping on the couch.

-Rumor has it that Cassel found out what I said about him working at Jack Stack, so he responded with 18/29 for 260 yards, one touchdown and no picks.

-The Detroit Lions game looked like a sure loss all day long. They rallied from being down 24 to eventually win that one.

-The Steelers game should have been a blow-out. There was a blocked field goal to end the half that Houston took back for a TD, except the TD was called back due to an illegal block in the back of Sepulveda from the Steelers. Interestingly enough, the returner had a four-yard lead on Sepulveda…and Sepulveda’s also the Punter, so he never would have caught him anyway. Instead of being up 17-0 at the Half, Houston led 10-0. In all fairness, I did mention not being confident with that pick.

-I don’t know what to say about the Bills losing, except my Mother QB’d an okay game.

***Okay, so we’re 1-3, but if you want to get it back, double your bet on under-40.5 in tomorrow night’s game.

[size=85]You’re crazy if you listen to that. I’m 1-3, I suck, we’ll try it again next week.[/size]

Okay…so my Over/Under pick was also wrong. The Bucs/Colts scored a combined 41, which means I lost that bet by 1, technically 1/2 since the line was 40 and a half, but since you can’t score half a point.

Pav’s Record Last Week: 1-4

Pav’s Overall Record: 1-4

This week’s picks based on odds as of 20:13 EST on 10/8/2011 @

bodog.net/sports/odds/nfl

—Last week was a test. I intended to start off poorly to separate the righteous from the sanctimonious. Those of you who so choose to continue to follow the path of light, which is the divine luminescence of the picks of PavlovianModel146 will reap Rewards reserved only for the truly devout…financially.

Those of you who mock and ridicule he who so selflessly delivers winning picks so that you may profit will be cast into the fires of financial mediocrity.

Prepare for my ascension into divineness:

Kansas City Chiefs +3 @ Indianapolis Colts Sun 1:00p.m.

Indianapolis has scored an average of 15.75 points per game and have allowed an average of 27. The Chiefs have scored an average of 12.25 points per game and have allowed an average of 31.5.

This means that the Colts have (in terms of average) lost all of their games by 11.25 points (average differential) and the Chiefs have lost by an average of 18.75 points.

I’ll take the Chiefs and the points.

Going against my usual statistical breakdown, I will cite that the Chiefs have won this year and the Colts have not.

PAV’s PICK: Chiefs +3

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 @ Pittsburgh Steelers Sun 1:00p.m.

Tennessee has scored 32 more points than they have allowed, Pittsburgh has allowed eight more than they have scored. Tennessee has one loss, Pittsburgh has two.

I don’t really have to delve too deep into this one. I just hope Hasselbeck can hold up for the whole game.

PAV’s PICK: Titans + 3 and 1/2

Green Bay Packers -6 @ Atlanta Falcons Sun 8:20p.m.

We keep hearing about Detroit, but the defending Super Bowl Champs are still unbeaten. They’ve scored 58 more and have allowed 7 less than the Falcons. The average difference is 16.25/game.

I’ll take the Pack, Atlanta can have the points.

PAV’s PICK: Packers -6

New York Jets -8 @ New England Patriots Sun 4:15p.m.

I’m a Patriots fan, not a Patriots homer. The Pats have no D, they’ll win, but not by that much.

PAV’s PICK: J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS +8

MANDATORY MONDAY:

Chicago Bears +6 @ Detroit Lions MON 8:30p.m.

The Lions are 4-0, but all good things must come to an end…

…Unless you’re playing the Bears.

PAV’s PICK: Lions -6

SUMMARY:

Chiefs + 3
Titans + 3 and 1/2
Packers -6
Jets + 8
Lions -6

My ascension wasn’t divine, but it was all right, at least I had a winning record this week. If you went with my picks, you made money, 'nuff said.

Pav’s Record (NFL WEEK 4) 1-4

Pav’s Record Last Week 3-2

OVERALL: 4-6

OK, so we’re still in the red, or black, whichever fuck one of those colors you’re not supposed to be, but we made money last week, so we’re on our way back.

[b]
Kansas City Chiefs +3 @ Indianapolis Colts Sun 1:00p.m.

PAV’s PICK: Chiefs +3

Score: Kansas City: 28 Inidanapolis: 24[/b]

RESULT: WIN

[b]Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 @ Pittsburgh Steelers Sun 1:00p.m.

PAV’s PICK: Titans + 3 1/2

Score: Pittsburgh: 38 Tenessee: 17[/b]

RESULT: Epic Fail.

[b]Green Bay Packers -6 @ Atlanta Falcons Sun 8:20p.m.

PAV’s PICK: Packers -6

Score: Green Bay: 25 Atlanta: 14[/b]

RESULT: WIN

[b]New York Jets +8 @ New England Patriots Sun 4:15p.m.

PAV’s PICK: Jets + 8

SCORE: New England: 30 New York (JETS): 21[/b]

Result: LOSS

[b]Chicago Bears +6 @ Detroit Lions MON 8:30p.m.

PAV’s PICK: Lions -6

Score: Detroit: 24 Chicago: 13[/b]

Result: Win

NOTES:

-Do not read #1 unless you like Math. If you really like Math and would like a more detailed example, just let me know.

[b]1.) The first thing I want to explain is why I pick games on Saturday. The reason why is because, in the public’s view, Saturday’s picks are as close as it gets to 50-50 with the exception being just before kick-off on Sunday.

For those of you unfamiliar, let me explain how odds-making works:

Vegas gets a piece of every win, so Vegas’ general goal is to have 50% of the money on one side and 50% of the money on the other side, that way Vegas can’t lose money because they get a piece of every win. Therefore, the perfect line is a line that doesn’t move, because if it doesn’t move, that means that roughly 50% has been bet on both sides of that line. (Read: On each outcome)

When too much money is on one side of the line, Vegas risks sustaining a loss on that game. Some indvidual gaming operations will leave the line in the same place (or not skew it too much) if they believe they have an edge, but again, they are risking losing money. To avoid risking its own money, Vegas has to move the line.

For instance, with a line such as:

New York Jets +8 @ New England Patriots Sun 4:15p.m.

If a booking establishment sees that $70,000 has been wagered on the Patriots against $30,000 wagered for the Jets, then the booking establishment will generally give the Jets more points to try to get people to put more money on the Jets. Ultimately, the establishment seeks to work these odds back-and-forth until they reach a point where around 50% of the money is paid out regardless of the result. In the scenario above, assuming Vegas gets around 2% of all of the winnings, they still have to cover all bets, so let’s say that the Patriots win or by x>8:

x = Vegas’ Money

(70,000 * .02 (Commission) + 30,000) - 70000 = x

(1,400 + 30,000) - 70,000 = x

31,400 - 70,000 = x

-38,600 = x

Vegas loses $38,600.

Vegas now needs to get some money on the Jets’ side, in fact, they need to get a shitload of money on the Jets’ side because they stand to lose a ton of money if the above result happens.

Imagine if Vegas now makes the odds NY Jets +10. $40,000 gets put on the Jets while $10000 gets put on the Patriots, now if the Patriots win by x>10

[(10000 + 70000 * .02) + 70000] - 80000 = x

[1,600 + 70000] -80000 = x

71,600 - 80000 = x

x = -8,400

Vegas loses $8,400, which is a Hell of a lot better than $38,600.

***These are extremely simple examples. You could perhaps have 20+ more possible results that would change Vegas’ wins/losses, but the ultimte goal for Vegas is to get it to where the payout is around 50/50 regardless of the result, because then Vegas can’t lose.

NOW: The reason why I play Saturday is because it is the hardest day to play, and the theoretical odds are going to be closest to 50/50 becase John Q. Public has been pushing this line one way and back the other way for six days. For instance, you’ll almost never see the same line from Monday Night to Sunday Morning (before kickoff), but you’ll often see the same exact line Saturday night as Sunday morning. It’s already moved![/b]

2.) I had the utmost confidence in the Chiefs/Colts game. I would have picked the Chiefs to win outright.

3.) Picking Tennessee was a horrendous idea. They say numbers never lie, and they don’t, just look at Blitzburgh’s record at home the last few years.

4.) No doubt about GB/ATL.

5.) The Patriots won by NINE points! That was so close to being a great pick. Two less points and I’m a genius…

6.) I almost had a loss on the Lions points. The Chigago Bears, for no apparent reason, almost executed a heroic touchdown on the last play of the game Chigago would have went for two, so Detroit would have won by three or five. It was the most nonsense play I have seen recently because time would have expired making the TD pointless, anyhow.

7.) See you Saturday.

Last week did not go bad at all. I reiterate that, at 3-2, if you went with my picks, you won money. My overall record is still 4-6, and while that is something I would like to rectify, I’m afraid only one line really jumps out at me this week. We’ll see what happens:

Saturday, October 15, 2011 @ 9:21p.m. EST

contests.bodog.net/sports/odds/nfl

Carolina Panthers +4 @ Atlanta Falcons Sun. 1:00p.m.

Here’s the deal: The Carolina Panthers are 1-4 while the Atlanta Falcons are 2-3. However, the Carolina Panthers have an explosive Quarterback in Cam Newton and have scored 12 more points than the Falcons this year while only giving up two more points than the Falcons.

The difference there is ten points in favor of Carolina, while Carolina is also getting four points going into this game. Honestly, I kind of like Carolina to just win this game outright. In any case, it may come down to one or two big plays rather than a fundamental advantage, but if I have to pick either Cam Newton or Matt Ryan to make one or two big plays, my money’s on Newton.

Besides, the Panthers can lose by a Field Goal and I still win.

PAV’s PICK: Panthers + 4

San Francisco 49ers +4.5 @ Detroit Lions Sunday @ 1:00p.m.

The Lions have scored 17 more, but they have given up 11 more. There is really no fundamental difference between these two teams except that Matthew Stafford has been lights-out while Alex Smith has been merely consistent. This could be one of the tougher defenses that the Lions have faced this year, but I can’t bet against an unbeaten team only giving 4.5 points at home.

PAV’s PICK: Lions -4.5

Buffalo Bills +3 @ New York Giants Sunday @ 1:00p.m.

The Giants are 3-2 and have already lost at Home while the Bills are 4-1 overall. The Bills points differential is +44 while that of the Giants is +4. The Bills have scored the second most points in all of the AFC, only to the New England Patriots, a team that the Bills happened to beat this year! The Bills are right about average in points allowed as are the Giants.

The whole thing might come down to which version of Eli Manning we’ll see in this game. The carbon-copy of Peyton version, or the leading head-first on a run and fumbling and throwing with the wrong hand version. We’ll see. If Eli doesn’t try to make too much happen, then this will be a good game. If Eli does try to make too much happen, this could be a blowout.

The bottom line is that the Bills are getting three points and I could see them blowing out the Giants. I can’t see the Giants blowing out the Bills.

PAV’s PICK: Bills +3

New Orleans Saints -6 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun @ 4:15p.m.

Tampa Bay has produced the seventh fewest points in the league. The Saints have produced the fifth most points in the league. Both teams have allowed 125 points. The Saints score an average of fourteen per game better than the Bucs (+70).

Who do you think I should pick?

PAV’s PICK: Saints -6

I was going to make a pick on the Bears/Vikings game, but then I realized my pick against either team would be the Union Local High School Jets (OH) -10!*

[size=150]MANDATORY MONDAY[/size]

Miami Dolphins +7 @ New York Jets Monday @ 8:30p.m.

Don’t think I have forgotten how the Jets failed me in that New England game.

The failure of the Jets is water under the bridge, however. There have been five weeks played in the NFL Season and the only week in which the Guppies did not get outscored was their bye week. That makes the Dolphins 0-4.

The Jets are 2-3 right now, but they have had a rough schedule. The Jets opponents are a combined 14-10, and are a Jets game independent 11-8. The Dolphins opponents are a Dolphins game independent 9-6, which is slightly better than 11-8, but the difference is that the Jets have actually won two games.

The Dolphins score an average 17.25 points per game while the Jets score 24.2. The Dolphins allow an average 24.5 while the Jets allow an average 25. The only real difference is in the scoring, which is right around seven points in the Jets favor.

However, Miami’s season is already lost, it was lost from the word, ‘go.’ The Jets need this one to keep themselves in AFC East contention, and this game could also prove critical to their wildcard hopes if that is what it comes down to.

Finally, the Guppies have only come within seven points of an opponent once this year, the Cleveland Clowns.

Blowout, per the usual.

PAV’s PICK: J-E-T-S-JETS-JETS-JETS -7

RECAP:

Panthers +4
Lions -4.5
Bills +3
Saints -6
Jets -7

Geez, Pav, i was going to give my picks, but I agree with you on all games.

Funny how they can all look like locks on Saturday…

I appreciate your vote of confidence, Faust!

They don’t just look like locks on Saturday, they actually are locks on Saturday.

Except the Bills game. I’m kind of throwing up in my mouth a little bit about that one. My gut says, ‘take the Giants, lay the points,’ but I almost never go strictly with my gut. I usually find a justification to go with my gut, but no matter how I might search, I can’t justify picking any team except the Bills.

Pav’s Record Weeks 4 & 5: 4-6

Pav’s Record Last Week: 1-3-1

OVERALL: 5-9-1

Last week did not go well. The very fact that I am posting this, at least, indicates that I am not a quitter! Anyway, I’m going to try to come up with the week of my life tomorrow, and see if we can right this ship.

[b]Carolina Panthers +4 @ Atlanta Falcons Sun. 1:00p.m.

Carolina: 17 Atlanta: 31

Pav’s Pick: Carolina +4

Result: LOSS[/b]

[b]San Francisco 49ers +4.5 @ Detroit Lions Sunday @ 1:00p.m.

San Francisco: 25 Detroit: 19

Pav’s Pick: Detroit -4.5

Result: LOSS[/b]

[b]Buffalo Bills +3 @ New York Giants Sunday @ 1:00p.m.

Buffalo: 24 New York (Giants) 27

Pav’s Pick: Buffalo +3

Result: PUSH[/b]

[b]
New Orleans Saints -6 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun @ 4:15p.m.

New Orleans: 20 Tampa Bay: 26

Pav’s Pick: Saints -6

Result: LOSS[/b]

[b]Miami Dolphins +7 @ New York Jets Monday @ 8:30p.m.

New York (Jets): 24 Miami: 6

Pav’s Pick: Jets -7

Result: WIN[/b]

NOTES:

1.) That’s what happens when you pick on Saturday.

2.) I picked the wrong QB to make big plays in the Falcons/Panthers game. Although, I basically admitted that game could have went to anyone.

Actually, that’s not quite true. Cam Newton had more big plays, the problem was, they were Interceptions!

3.) I would make the same bet in the Lions/49ers game, but damn, the 49ers are for real this year! It’s a shame about the handshake incident because it took a lot of attention away from a phenomenal game. I admitted to there being no fundamental difference between the two teams, so I don’t feel too bad about this pick, and I still maintain you cannot go against a 5-0 team only giving up 4.5 at home.

4.) I’m almost tempted to give myself the win for the Bills/Giants game, but I won’t. I’m doing a little web-surfing pre-game Sunday, and I’m seeing a great many sites giving the Bills four points. I guess I just picked the wrong day to play it.

5.) I don’t feel bad about the Saints/Bucs game because that was just a fluke. You have one of the most anemic offenses going up against one of the best offenses and the defenses are about even…who do you want me to pick when I only needed the Saints to win by seven for me to win!?

6.) The Jets/Dolphins game was a lock to end all locks. I’d have given the Dolphins ten points without hesitation.

7.) This too shall pass, I hope. More picks tomorrow. I’m hoping to at least finish the year at .500+.

5-9-1

5-9-1

5-9-1

This too shall pass…

…I hope.

ODDS FROM: bodog.net/sports/odds/nfl
Saturday, October 22, 2011 7:23p.m. EST

Much like last week, I only have one pick that I am in love with, but if the last few weeks have been any indication, that means I’ll have at least one win. The way I see it, skill has to overcome bad luck at some point. I’m not whining, mind you, especially since I have not put a cent on any of these games, but there have just been too many SOLID picks with SOLID statistical support that have gone wrong.

Well, I guess there’s no more putting it off:

Atlanta Falcons +4 @ Detroit Lions -4 Sunday @ 1:00p.m.

I love my pick statistically and hate it in just about every other way. Although, I might as well start my week with a loss where I get to complain about the numbers not proving what they should prove, if that’s how it goes down.

First of all, the Lions are at home, they’re 5-1 and they’re only giving up four points. Secondly, the Falcons are 1-2 on the Road, to be sure, a very small sample size, but that’s what I have to work with.

I also contend that this win may be as important to the Lions as to the Falcons. The Lions were on quite a high prior to that 49ers loss, and I think a win here may just give that high back to them. If they lose, however, then they are just another 4-2 team, two losses away from .500.

Additionally, assuming a Packers win against the Vikings, (Like the Packers, not the spread, -10) the NFC North could come down to how the Packers/Lions compete head-to-head. However, if the Lions lose and the Packers win, then the Lions are two games out in the North.

The Lions have scored 43 more points this season than the Falcons and they have allowed 33 less. Actually, they’re tied with the Packers for third-best in points allowed in the NFC. The Lions are also second to the Packers in points scored.

Anyway, the average difference between the two teams is 12.67 points per game in favor of the Packers. 12.67 is a little over three times more than four. You have to take that.

PAV’s PICK: Lions -4

Washington Redskins +3 @ Carolina Panthers Sunday @ 1:00

Washington’s offense is completely pathetic. They are averaging just 19.2 points per game compared to Carolina’s 22.17. However, Washington’s Defense has only allowed 16.6 points per game compared to 27.2 for Carolina. Effectively, you have Washington giving up three points in terms of points scored, but getting a 10.5 point advantage in points allowed. Ultimately, that’s a 7.5 point advantage, based on averages.

Additionally, Washington is GETTING three points!

Washington is 3-2 with something to play for. The NFC East is wide open, especially considering the Cowboys only play the first three quarters of most games. In fact, the Giants lead the division only by virtue of the fact that the Redskins have already had their bye week, both teams have two losses.

The Panthers are 1-5, Newton is still developing, and they have no hope of reaching the playoffs. They are certainly doing their best to win every game, but one’s best often tends to be better when one is actually playing for a reason.

Washington is only getting points because they have an abyssmal offense. Nobody is thinking of anything else.

PAV’s PICK: Redskins +3

Denver Broncos +1 @ Miami Dolphins Sunday @ 1:00

I have decided just to keep picking whoever plays the Dolphins until it fails me. It could fail me this week.

QUICK SHOTS:

Points per Game Averages (Scored):

Ponies: 21
Guppies: 15

Points per Game Averages (Allowed):

Guppies 25.6
Ponies: 28

Average Difference: Broncos +3.6

Homefield advantage? There is no homefield advantage when you are 0-5. Remember, the Guppies have only come within seven of an opponent ONCE in five games.

PAV’s PICK: Ponies +1

LEAST CONFIDENT PICK OF THE WEEK TIME:

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 @ Arizona Cardinals Sunday @ 4:05

The Steelers offense is averaging 19.8 points per game, while the Cardinals offense is averaging 19.2 points per game. The Steel Curtain is stingy once again, allowing only 17 points per game while Arizona has allowed 24.2 points per game. However, Arizona, I believe, is 3-2 against the spread and has only lost one game by more than seven and only two out of five games by more than four.

I would need the Steelers to win by more than four.

The Minnesota Vikings have played six games and scored 28% (34 points) of their season’s total against Arizona.

Last week.

PAV’s PICK: Steelers -4

[size=150]MANDATORY MONDAY:[/size]

Baltimore Ravens -9 @ Jacksonville Jaguars Monday @ 8:30

I was going to take the under (40), but I just changed my mind.

Baltimore averages 29.6 points scored per game, the Jaguars average 12. Baltimore allows 14.2 points per game, Jacksonville allows 22. In total, that gives Baltimore an advantage of 25.4 points per game on average.

I hate picking games with huge spreads, but not so much this one.

PAV’s PICK: Baltimore -9

RECAP:

PAV’s PICK: Lions -4
PAV’s PICK: Redskins +3
PAV’s PICK: Ponies +1
PAV’s PICK: Steelers -4
PAV’s PICK: Baltimore -9

[b]Pav’s Record Weeks 4-6: 5-9-1

Pav’s Record Week 7: 2-3

Overall: 7-12-1[/b]

I’m down, but I’m not out. There are ten weeks let in the NFL Regular Season, so that gives me 50 picks to get this thing back. I must admit that this is probably my second worst showing ever after twenty games, although, if we could count the first three weeks (which I’m not counting because I didn’t post them here) I’d actually be 18-21-1 which is a little better.

[b]Atlanta Falcons 23 @ Detroit Lions 16

Pav’s Pick: Lions -4

RESULT: LOSS[/b]

[b]Washington Redskins: 20 @ Carolina Panthers: 33

Pav’s Pick: Washington +3

RESULT: LOSS[/b]

[b]Denver Broncos: 18 @ Miami Dolphins: 15 (OT)

Pav’s Pick: Denver +1

RESULT: WIN[/b]

[b]Pittsburgh Steelers: 32 @ Arizona Cardinals: 20

Pav’s Pick: Steelers -4

RESULT: WIN[/b]

[b]Baltimore Ravens: 7 @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 12

Pav’s Pick: Ravens -9

RESULT: EMBARASSING[/b]

NOTES:

1.) I am officially off the Detroit bandwagon.

2.) The Panthers are too unpredictable. I don’t plan on picking another Panthers game this year.

3.) That was my most confident pick, and it took them overtime to do it!

4.) That was my least confident pick, and the most decisive result in my favor.

5.) I should have taken the under, but I got cocky.

Week 8 Picks momentarily.

I have a piece of advice for any of you still following this thread, if you want to win money, just do the opposite of whatever do, and I can still take some of the credit because you’ll still be basing your plays on my picks.

In the meantime, I’ve thought up a new strategy that I want to go with starting this week, and my strategy is to win more games than I lose.

This will be a tough week for that, though, I’m not in love with any of these lines.

bodog.net/sports/odds/nfl
Saturday, October 29, 2011 @ 8:28p.m.

Arizona Cardinals +13 @ Baltimore Ravens Sun. 1:00p.m.

Principle alone, the statistics don’t even favor my pick in this one, but that’s just a shitload of points to give up.

Pav’s Pick: Arizona +13

Jacksonville Jaguars + 10 @ Houston Texans: Sun. 1:00p.m.

The Kitty-Cats and the Texans have both played seven games this year. In those seven games, the Texans offense has scored 98 more points than the Kitties while allowing eight fewer points. That’s an average points differential of 15.14 in favor of the Texans.

Pav’s Pick: Texans -10

Miami Dolphins +10 @ New York Giants Sun. 1:00p.m.

I don’t need any stats. I told you I was going to keep picking against the Guppies until it fails me and it has not failed me yet. Statistically, this line really gives no advantage one way or the other.

Pav’s Pick: Giants -10

Detroit Lions -3 @ Denver Broncos Sun. 4:05p.m.

I told you that I am off the Lions’ bandwagon, but this is a must-take spread against the Ponies.

QUICK HITS:

Points Scored Average:

Lions: 27.7
Broncos: 20.5
Difference: Lions +7.2

Points Against Average:

Lions: 19.6
Broncos: 25.8
Difference: Lions -6.2

Point Spread Average:

Lions: +8.1
Broncos: -5.3
Difference: Lions +13.4

I think the line is so favorable because the Lions have dropped two in a row. The Broncos also won last week, but remember, it took them OT to beat a winless team.

Pav’s Pick: Lions -3

[size=150]MANDATORY MONDAY[/size]

San Diego Chargers -3.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs Mon. 8:30p.m.

San Diego beat Kansas City once this year, but it was only by three and San Diego was at home. Oakland (4-2) is the best team Kansas City (3-3) has beaten this year, and Kansas City is the best team San Diego has beaten this year. Kansas City beat Oakland 28-0 and will be in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC West with a win on Monday. Actually, I kind of like the KC & SD series to be a split this year.

I’ll take KC and the points, unofficially, I also pickKC to win outright.

Pav’s Pick: Chefs +3.5

RECAP:

Pav’s Pick: Arizona +13
Pav’s Pick: Texans -10
Pav’s Pick: Giants -10
Pav’s Pick: Lions -3
Pav’s Pick: Chefs +3.5

[b]Pav’s Record Weeks 4-7: 7-12-1

Pav’s Record Week 8: 3-1-1

OVERALL: 10-13-2[/b]

The only thing better than a winning week is a decisively winning week. I would consider a decisively winning week any week where you have two more wins than you have losses. There are nine weeks left in the NFL Regular Season which means I have forty-five more games to pick.

Unfortunately, I must admit that I hate almost all of this week’s lines, but they still have two days to move.

[b]Arizona Cardinals: 27 @ Baltimore Ravens: 30

PAV’s PICK: Arizona +13

Result: WIN[/b]

[b]Jacksonville Jaguars: 14 @ Houston Texans: 24

PAV’s PICK: Houston -10

Result: PUSH[/b]

[b]
Miami Dolphins 17 @ New York Giants 20

PAV’s PICK: NYG - 10

RESULT: LOSS[/b]

[b]Detroit Lions: 45 @ Denver Broncos: 10

PAV’s PICK: Detroit -3

RESULT: WIN[/b]

[b]San Diego Chargers 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 23

PAV’s PICK: Chiefs +3.5 (Unofficial Pick, Kansas City-Outright Win)

RESULT: WIN (WIN) [/b]

NOTES:

1.) Arizona almost won their game outright, which I wouldn’t have picked in a million years. If there is one thing that game taught me, there are times for a breakdown of statistics and there are times that one should rely on principle alone. In principle, thirteen points is too much for a less-than-explosive offense to give up. Although, if you had told me going in, “The Ravens will score thirty points in this game,” I probably would have had a hard time taking Arizona and the points.

2./3.) The blemishes on this week’s record, a push and a loss. A wise friend of mine named Jeff once said, “Never pick a favorite that is giving up more than ten points.” Twice I picked teams favored by 10+ this week, and twice it bit me in the ass. I’ll probably do it again, sooner or later. There’s really no reason Dolphins/Giants should have been that close, but I knew I was rolling the dice with Houston/Jacksonville. I thought about picking the other way on Houston/Jacksonville, actually, but the result would still have been a push.

4.) There was no doubt about the Detroit game. I’ll admit I wasn’t expecting a thirty-five point ass-whipping, but Detroit(-3)? Come on…

5.)

At least I get to feel like a genius once this year.

More Picks and More Wins on Saturday, or not. I can at least guarantee there will be more Picks Saturday.

Last week I advised you to do the opposite of what I did in order to win money, and I was wrong. Apparently, self-deprecation causes me to pick really well, so I’m going to advise, once again, that you do the exact opposite of what I do.

We’re going into this week 10-13-2

bodog.net/sports/odds/nfl
Sunday, November 6th, 2011 @ 00:03 EST

New York Jets +3 @ Buffalo Bills Sunday @ 1:00p.m. (Toronto, Canada)
Buffalo is 5-2 while the Jets are 4-3, so that’s pretty close. Both Buffalo and the Jets are unbeaten at home, but Buffalo is 1-2 on the road to the Jets 0-3 on the road. Toronto is a neutral site, but if I had to pick a team to call the, ‘home team,’ it would be Buffalo.

Buffalo has a stingy defense, thus the Bills have scored 64 more points than they have given up. Buffalo’s offense also leads the AFC in points scored. In the meantime, while the Jets have only allowed five more points than the Bills, their offense has only scored 172 points which is 39 less than the Bills. That’s a point differential of 44 per game in favor of the Bills, if you divide that by seven games played, the result is 6.29.

6.29 is a little more than three times two, so:

PAV’s PICK: Bills -3

Atlanta Falcons (-7) @ Indianapolis Colts Sun. @ 1:00p.m.

This line actually makes sense even though the Falcons are 4-3 and the Colts are 0-7. Atlanta has scored 158 points versus 163 points allowed, for a points differential of -5. On the other hand, the Colts have scored 121 and allowed 252 for a points differential of -131. The overall points differential is 126 points in Atlanta’s favor, divided by 7.5 (Atlanta has played seven games, the Colts is 16.8.

Both teams are anemic on offense, but the Colts REALLY suck defensively.

PAV’s PICK: Atlanta -7

St. Louis Rams (+0) @ Arizona Cardinals Sun. @ 4:15p

Both teams are 1-6, St. Louis points differential is -105, while that of the Cardinals is -40.

The Cardinals suck, but the Rams suck worse.

PAV’s PICK: Cardinals (Pick 'Em)

Cincinnati Bengals +3 @ Tennessee Titans Sun. @ 4:15p.m.

I do not understand this line, but I’m playing it. The Titans are 4-3, have scored 139 points and have allowed 145. The Bengals are 5-2 and have scored 171 points while allowing 123. The Titans are 3-1 at home and the Bengals are 3-1 on the road.

The Titans’ points differential is -6, while that of the Bengals is +48.

Want to give the Bengals points?

I’ll take the points.

PAV’s PICK: Bengals +3

[size=150]MANDATORY MONDAY:[/size]

Oakland Raiders (+0) @ San Diego Chargers Monday @ 8:20p.m.

Granted, both teams are 4-3, but the Raiders points differential is -18 to the Bolts +2. Oakland Raiders QB’s also threw a combined six interceptions in their last game, and I think Phillip Rivers will only throw five.

PAV’s PICK: Chargers (Pick 'Em)

RECAP:
PAV’s PICK: Bills -3
PAV’s PICK: Atlanta -7
PAV’s PICK: Cardinals (Pick 'Em)
PAV’s PICK: Bengals +3
PAV’s PICK: Chargers (Pick 'Em)

[b]Pav’s Record Weeks 4-8: 10-13-2

Pav’s Record Week 9: 4-1-0

OVERALL: 14-14-2[/b]

This was exactly the kind of week we were looking for. I’m back to even par after getting off to a poor start, so we have eight weeks left in the regular season, (40 Picks) and it’s basically equivalent to being 0-0-0.

It’s money time.

One odd thing, I typically don’t see more than one push in a seventeen week season, and I’ve had two in six weeks.

RESULTS:

[b]New York Jets: 27 @ Buffalo Bills: 11

Pav’s Pick: Bills (-3)

Result: LOSS[/b]

[b]Atlanta Falcons: 31 @ Indianapolis Colts: 7

Pav’s Pick: Falcons -7

Result: WIN[/b]

[b]St. Louis Rams: 13 @ Arizona Cardinals: 19

Pav’s Pick: Arizona (Pick 'Em)

Result: WIN[/b]

[b]
Cincinnati Bengals: 24 @ Tennessee Titans: 17

Pav’s Pick: Bengals +3

Result: WIN[/b]

[b]Green Bay Packer: 45 @ San Diego Chargers: 38

Pav’s Pick: San Diego (+8.5)******

Result: WIN******[/b]

NOTES:

1.) I thought Jets/Bills would be much closer. I’ll admit that I wasn’t in love with the pick because, “Sexy Rexy,” and the Jet are unpredictable as Hell, but I didn’t expect it to be a complete shutdown of the Bills’ offense.

2.) There are few guarantees in the world of picks. However, I can name sixteen: Any game involving the Indianapolis Colts.

3.) The Cardinals suck, but the Rams suck worse.

4.) Nobody believes in the Bengals, and maybe they shouldn’t. Maybe I just got lucky, we’ll see whether or not we should believe in the Bengals/Steelers game Sunday.

5.)****** Here’s the deal. I picked San Diego in the San Diego/Oakland game which I thought to be the Monday Night game. However, that’s actually the Thursday game which Bodog.net mistakenly put for Week 9, even though it’s a Week 10 game. In any event, I make all my picks on Saturday, so I can’t pick a Thursday game.

The way this works is: If you are actually at a betting station you fill in the circle with the team you want for that week and the line is posted. Basically, in the equivalent, I filled in San Diego for Week 9. That was an error. However, when you fill in the line, you play that Team’s line (+8.5), whether or not it is a screw-up.

It sucks because, as a result, there was no Mandatory Monday last week. I almost feel like I am cheating because I did not actually, and would not have, picked that line. The only thing that makes me feel better is, had you held a gun to my head to make me pick that game, (and you would have had to) I would have taken SD and the points.******

Anyway, Bodog.net posts the Thursday games in a strange way, but I’ll know that for the future now.

I’ll be back tomorrow, hopefully with another set of 4-1 picks. I’d ask for 5-0, but after my start this year, I’m not going to get greedy.

Just keep doing the opposite of what I do. Ignore all of these picks completely. I suck in the worst possible manner. I am horrible at picking NFL games. My record of 7-2-1 in the last two weeks is nothing short of a fluke.

(Maybe enough self-deprecation will get me a 5-0 week!)

bodog.net/sports/odds/nfl
Saturday, November 12, 2011 @ 11:14p.m.

Arizona Cardinals (Pick 'Em) @ Philadelphia Eagles Sunday @ 1:00p.m.

The Eagles suck at home, but the Birdies are winless away from home. Philadelphia is also fifth in scoring in the NFC and has a points differential of +21 to the Cardinals -34. The Eagles are 3-5 and the Cardinals 2-6.

I really don’t know why this is a Pick 'Em, but I’ll take the bird of prey.

PAV’s PICK: Eagles (Pick 'Em)

Baltimore Ravens -7 @ Seattle Seahawks Sunday @ 4:05p.m.

The Seachickens have won two games, and one of them happened to be in the State of Washington, so nothing special about home turf. They’ve also lost two at home whereas Baltimore is 2-2 away from home.

In the meantime, Baltimore has scored 208 against 130 given up for a +78 differential. I should also mention that Baltimore is not going to be fucking around because in a tight division, and probably tight AFC WildCard race, they can’t afford to piss away what should be an easy win. In the meantime, the SeaChickens have scored an NFL 4th worst 122 against 185 allowed for a differential of -63.

The overall differential is 141 in favor of Baltimore over 16 total games for an average of 8.81. Therefore, a line of -7 is about right, but that’s where the intangible of, “Something to play for,” comes into play I think. If Baltimore pissed this easy opportunity away, they could come to regret it in January.

Pav’s Pick: Baltimore -7

Detroit Lions +3 @ Chicago Bears Sunday @ 4:15p.m.

I haven’t been drinking, that’s actually the line.

First of all, Detroit is unbeaten, 4-0, in Away games, whereas the Cub Scouts have already lost one at home.

Secondly, Detroit has scored 239 against 147 given up for a points differential of +92. Chicago has scored 200 against 174 allowed for a points differential of +26. That gives Detroit a points differential advantage of 66 over sixteen combined games for an average of +4.125 over Chicago.

Did I mention Detroit is the third highest scoring team in the NFC?

Shit, I’d give three points, but if you’re giving, I’m taking.

Pav’s Pick: Detroit +3

New England Patriots +1 @ New York Jets Sunday @ 8:20p.m.

The stats are even, except the Jets are unbeaten at home. I’m still picking the Pats. I admit to having no real reason for that, except I think they’ll win.

Pav’s Pick: New England +1

[size=150]MANDATORY MONDAY[/size]

Minnesota Vikings +14 @ Green Bay Packers Monday @ 8:30p.m.

Green Bay has scored 275 against 179 allowed for a differential of +96. They’ve also played eight games making their average margin of victory (8-0) 12.

The Vikings have scored 172 and allowed 199 for a differential of -27.

Green Bay’s differential advantage is 123 overall, but combined is only 7.69 on average. For that reason, I’d love to make a, “Principle alone,” Vikings pick, but, my God do they suck.

At the same time, the Vikings have only lost one game by more than seven. In fact, they’ve already played the Packers and only lost by six.

Fuck it, let’s do this.

PAV’s PICK: Vikings +14

RECAP:
PAV’s PICK: Eagles (Pick 'Em)
Pav’s Pick: Baltimore -7
Pav’s Pick: Detroit +3
Pav’s Pick: New England +1
PAV’s PICK: Vikings +14

Being a strictly philosophical being, I will Ponder Hume’s Inductive Fallacy.

If Green Bay has eight wins and no losses, then they will lose tonight. I think that is a direct consequence – not sure.

Ed

Nope, we’re going 9 - 0 tonight. We’re gonna do it, I KNOW IT!!!

Go 9-0 all you want, just do it by 13 points or less…lol

I need to finish at least 2-3 this week.

Sorry Pav, but ya know, not too sorry cuz…

[size=200]9 - 0!!![/size]

It happens. My first week on here was 1-4, I bounced back then…