Resource Scarcity Myth and JHK
JHK - Kunstler is a great writer and has very interesting ideas and concepts, but I see a subtle thread of a resource scarcity myth that is present everywhere today with environmentalists and is totally false.
Check out his blog kunstler.com
and these last 2 blogs:
kunstler.com/blog/2010/04/false-spring.html
kunstler.com/blog/2010/04/my-hom … -fate.html
especially this response that gives a deep insight to how exactly things are today:
"This is part of a large family of ideologies and assumptions that rotate around resource scarcity. Peak oil, population explosion, energy is finishing, land is finishing, food is finishing, etc. are all false beliefs: there has never been so much of the above available and there will be increasingly so as time goes by. But these resource scarcities ideologies feed on the idea that you all have to “compete” for resources, “there is not enough around for everyone”, competition and fighting over resources because there are too little, and this ideology does a great favor to private businesses and corporations that can squeeze out money from poor people through the myth of resource scarcity. So then privatize health care, then housing, then water and eventually food, etc. Cut it off from everyone and make everyone pay for a very scarce resource like health care, housing, water etc.
Never has there been a greater lie: there are no resource scarcities, JHK concentrates himself on oil, but oil is only a small part of the equation of modern civilization, 80 % of that equation is technology, and technology can overcome all and any resource scarcities. Like I said above, we haven’t even begun tapping the potential of simple BUSES, let alone skyscrapers where even BUSES and transportation in general is not even needed ! substitute cars with elevators.
Oil is just carbon chemistry, there are many ways to create a substitute through genetic engineered bacteria, or ethanol as in Brazil, natural gas can be used, methane, biomasses, etc.
Population probably won’t ever reach 10 billion:
check out:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population … rowth_rate
So the excuse that there are too many people is BS. The real problem is that a group of people want to cut off the resources that should go to everyone, they want competition, fighting for resources, war, etc. They want racism, etc.
Since what we have is constant increase of wealth, free wealth through technology, societies don’t know how to deal with it psychologically, it goes against the real resource scarcities that mankind has had since up until about a hundred years ago when technology took over and solved all these problems.
There are even more extreme theories of our infinite resource society, like the technological singularity (computers becoming so smart that they themselves design ever smarter computers until they become no longer understandable by humans), or that medical advances will cross the point where the average lifetime exceeds more than one year every year, so no one will die anymore even if they wanted to because medicine has achieved immortality (but this would eventually increase the population ,hmmm…).
What I think is operating is that the worldwide economy generates so much wealth that societies don’t know how to deal with it, and that wealth generates even more in an endless cycle up to the point of an infinite resource society. I mean the economy goes in crisis mode if we decide to just consume 2 or 3 percent less of our normal consumption…
And maybe the Chinese and arabs in Dubai are building all those skyscrapers because they realize just how hugely energy efficient they are. An investment for the future.
The US builds McMansions, they build skyscrpapers…"
JHK thinks we will be going back to agriculture, others think we will be going back to manufacturing, others think we will be going back to services. Well, we won’t be going back to any of these things: and in fact agriculture will become even more large scale, even more optimized and will employ even less people worldwide then today. It will become even more chemical intensive. Manufacturing also will become more automated with robots and microprocessors, even more optimized and even fewer people will work in manufacturing worldwide. Services is and has always been a farse, they are not needed.
What we have is the result of applied science to production, technology has and will increasingly eliminate most work and labor as we know it. This is an automatic process, no one can do anything about it, the forces to eliminate work are just too many and too strong worldwide. What will happen is most people will not have any work anymore and will not need to work. We will simply get free salaries, and will buy baby, buy instead of drill baby, drill. The first countries that will understadn this and simply payy people to live, give them a basic guaranteed salary, and a high salary at that, something like 3,000 dollars a month will have finally understoos how the real economy works and will work in the future. We have huge excess capacity in all productive endeavors worldwide that don’t know how and whre to discharge, we don’t need more work, we need less.
There will be even more sprawl and even more skyscrapers built worlwide. Peak oil is a fantasy of JHK, he does not know that the chevy volt is a breakthrough that will kill his fantasy of peak oil, because it is uses the engine as a generator to produce electricity for the elctric motors, and this engine can be fed ehtanol or methane or gas, or biodiesel or french fried oil. And huge BUSES, mass trasit with SIMPLE BUSES will also kill his peak oil fantasy.
JHK has a fundamentalist, religious - fundamentalist approach to society, in the sense that pleasure must be punished, we shouldn’t have McMansions and consume and go around in cars, etc. But this view is false and distorted because the automatic economy through applied science to production has eliminated work and labor and imposes us to simply enjoy, consume and sprawl as much as possible. This is the truth not his punishing view of going back to the past and everyone becoming farmers again.
Worldwide economy globalization will impose a basic pay rate that goes from 100 to 800 dollars a month. This is the average, about 300 to 400 dollars a month, the real average salary that will become standard. Everything else will become free, health care, homes, food, etc. There is simply no way to stop the huge excess capacity and production machine worldwide, it is and will generate a huge amount of wealth, that we don’t know how to deal with psychologically.
JHK thinks we will be going back to agriculture, others think we will be going back to manufacturing, others think we will be going back to services. Well, we won’t be going back to any of these things: and in fact agriculture will become even more large scale, even more optimized and will employ even less people worldwide than today. It will become even more chemical intensive. Manufacturing also will become more automated with robots and microprocessors, even more optimized and even fewer people will work in manufacturing worldwide. Services is and has always been a farse, they are not needed.
What we have is the result of applied science to production, technology has and will increasingly eliminate most work and labor as we know it. This is an automatic process, no one can do anything about it, the forces to eliminate work are just too many and too strong worldwide. What will happen is most people will not have any work anymore and will not need to work. We will simply get free salaries, and will buy baby, buy instead of drill baby, drill. The first countries that will understand this and simply pay people to live, give them a basic guaranteed salary, and a high salary at that, something like 3,000 dollars a month will have finally understood how the real economy works and will function properly in the future. We have huge excess capacity in all productive endeavors worldwide that doesn’t know how and where to discharge, we don’t need more work, we need less.
There will be even more sprawl and even more skyscrapers built worlwide. Peak oil is a fantasy of JHK, he does not know that the chevy volt is a breakthrough that will kill his fantasy of peak oil, because it is uses the engine as a generator to produce electricity for the electric motors, and this engine can be fed ethanol or methane or gas, or biodiesel or french fried oil. And huge BUS trasnsit networks, mass transit with SIMPLE BUSES will also kill his peak oil fantasy.
JHK has a fundamentalist, religious - fundamentalist approach to society, in the sense that pleasure must be punished, we shouldn’t have McMansions and consume and go around in cars, etc. But this view is false and distorted because the automatic economy through applied science to production has eliminated work and labor and imposes us to simply enjoy, consume and sprawl as much as possible. This is the truth not his punishing view of going back to the past and everyone becoming farmers again.
Worldwide economy globalization will impose a basic pay rate that goes from 100 to 800 dollars a month. This is the average, about 300 to 400 dollars a month, the real average salary that will become standard. Everything else will become free, health care, homes, food, etc. There is simply no way to stop the huge excess capacity and production machine worldwide, it is and will generate a huge amount of wealth, that we don’t know how to deal with psychologically. There are 100 million manufacturing workers from Pakistan to Indonesia and in Latin America and you guys think manufacturing will be coming back ? Insane …
People here have no idea how much EXCESS CAPACITY is available worldwide: there are millions of workers in the world, millions of scientists working in technology and you guys think that just looking at a McMansion defines how society will evolve ? Worldwide economy has TOO MUCH MONEY on its hands, it seems to be around 100 trillion dollars available that DOESN’T EVEN KNOW WHAT TO DO ?!?!?? WHY ? because technology has automated manufacturing and agriculture, we can harness as much energy as we want from many sources, we can optimize energy uses with SIMPLE BUS networks controlled by internet scheduling, or by teleworking from the internet, etc. Are you guys crazy or what ? are you kidding me ? We now live in automated societies where work has been (should be) abolished and is no longer needed, we need free salaries, 3,000 dollars a month, FREE FOOD, FREE HEALTH CARE AND FREE HOMES! Wake up people, don’t buy knstler’s fundamentalist doom, it is all false.
Most economical interpretations that have been attempted have totally failed to predict the future: kunstler’s is just as useless and failed as it is biased towards what he would like happens and not what actually happens. What actually happens is that there are 100 million manufacturing workers across the world and he thinks “we should go back to making something of value”. There are probably just as many if not even more farmers across the world and he thinks “we should grow our own food in our backyard”. At least he dismisses services as the jokes that they are: financial jobs are just there to rip off people, banks just do the same, the whole health care fiasco is an arena of cruelty and squeezing out money from people when they are in pain. Nice “progress”, nice “services”. Well these services are not needed.
What is needed is a huge BUS transportation system, simple BUSES that can connect cities and suburbs, managed by public or private companies, doesn’t matter. Mass transit is what is needed to improve energy efficiency and kill the peak oil fantasy and lie-deception. Also cheap rents, the idea of owning a home is retarded and old fashioned, homes should be for rent, and should be very cheap. There is excess real estate capacity all across the world, look at the skyscrapers in China, Dubai, all the buldings in Spain, etc.
The world is now a globalized economy, get over it, it must be measured globally, it is now one unit.
Read the link:
gsd.harvard.edu/research/pub … jones.html
Notice EXCESS CAPACITY, overproduction are not concepts I discovered: they have been present for many decades, and get worse each year. Just robots and microprocessors automating jobs will create ever more free wealth, that societies don’t know how to deal with psychologically. Therefore the end mathematical solution to this is free salaries, mass transit, elimination of most work as no longer necessary. Or war and extreme conflict amongst many different sets of people over many resources and for many reasons.
If even a small percentage of production work in all sectors (primary, secondary and services) is serial and accumulative, there is absolutely no way that work will be available for future generations. By serial I mean for example how many buildings can you keep on building worldwide ? how many computer programs can you keep on writing worldwide ? how much further can you optimize production ? how many more new discoveries can possibly be made by thousands of scientists ? How many more consumer items can be produced and destroeyed yearly, etc.
From the link:
" Post-industrialism can be defined as the convergence of the “Information Age” and the “Service Economy.” Beginning in the 1970s, increasing competition from the recovered economies of Japan and Germany, as well as market saturation and stagflation, led American corporations to shift from strategies of high-volume mass production (Fordism) to strategies of high-quality, consumer-responsive, flexible production (post-Fordism).(4) Speed of innovation and changeable product lines have become key strategies for inducing demand, but require retoolable and increasingly computerized equipment and coordination.
This has occurred simultaneously with the development and mass production of computers and telecommunication networks. The availability of digital technologies and the need to better coordinate supply and demand (after the overproduction and recessions of the ’70s) has led to new corporate reliance on information about markets and inventories. New jobs were created in information services such as market research, advertising, and financial services, while telecommunications networks allowed corporations to shift manufacturing jobs to cheaper labor pools overseas or in suburbia, or to replace them through automation. While manufacturing is still an important function of the post-industrial economy, it has lost its dominant position to the production of images and information. Indeed, the hardware and software required for information management epitomizes the temporariness of post-industrialism. Even yearly upgrades do not keep pace with the speed of obsolescence. "
and also:
" Feverish construction through the ’80s produced nearly 4.6 billion square feet of total store space in the U.S. — about twenty square feet for every person in the country, the addition of a 34,000-square-foot store every hour.(22) Population grew 10% in the ’80s, retail floor space 80%.22"
This is called EXCESS CAPACITY, more labor executed than is necessary.
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Has JHK ever seen other cities worldwide ? like Seoul, Tokyo, Bangkok, Sao Paolo, Shanghai, etc. ? So does he think that all of those city dwellers, with all of their skyscrapers, and the many new ones they are building, are all so stupid, that they don’t see the “impending collapse”, that they don’t see that energy is “finishing”, and they are doomed ? So does that mean JHK and other greens here, know the truth and future and all of those city dwellers and engineers, economists, etc. are all dumb and not knowledgable ? Very humble …
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The crisis of today is a crisis of labor - work, and excess capacity, not energy. There is not enough labor, not enough new jobs or kinds of jobs possible in the future since technology automates and optimizes away labor. In fact JHK gave a perfect example of how technology killed more work than created new work by showing how going from coal to gas automated the labor process completely. Now what are all those thousands of office workers in those big buildings, WORLDWIDE, now remember not only NYC but also cities like those listed above, going to actually do 8 hours a day in those buildings ? how are they going to “generate profit” ? how are they going to justify the price of renting those office spaces with what they actually do ? What information manipulations are they performing that are worth so much ?
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The crisis of NYC and other cities worldwide is excess real estate capacity, more real estate than can be occupied. Now consider this: London or Mexico City are flat cities, absolutely NO highrises at all, NOT EVEN BULDINGS WITH 4 LEVELS OF MORE (or very few at least), and they host a similar population as NYC. So what gives ? And if compared to Sao Paolo or Seoul, the difference is even more staggering, since these two cities have thousands of buildings with 10 or more stories. It means that London or Mexico city don’t have as much extra real state as compared to NYC, Seoul or Sao Paolo or Shanghai. And how much extra real estate do these cities have ? maybe to host combined, another 10 million people easily. More real estate available worldwide than can be occupied. Again, EXCESS CAPACITY.
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Solution ? tear down thousands of buildings, demolish them worldwide, and build them all up again in a continuous cycle. Skyscrapers should last 5 years then, down they go again and build a new one.
Look at Dubai, they have office space if you need it, and then figure out what the office workers will “produce”…
- In fact the way to use the present highway and road infrastructure in the USA is through a simple BUS SYSTEM. Is the word BUS a dirty word ? A bus that uses the chevy volt system, say diesel electric could easily kill any energy problems instantly.
Anyways BUSES, SIMPLE BUSES could greatly increase energy efficiency, each BUS could get rid of 20 cars from the road in the USA, imagine how much money that would save. And the BUSES could be made luxury, silent, well designed, with internet scheduling and calling all through the suburbs, there are untold hundreds of ways of optimizing SIMPLE BUS networks in the USA. Where are all the Silicon Valley Start ups when you need them ? Why don’t they figure out a technology that makes BUS usage in suburbia efficient ?
No, BUSES is a dirty word in the USA…
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I would also say that there is no “normal economy”, there is no normal , end of story. There are just instantaneous combinations of forces interacting constantly and creating ever changing new configurations and combinations, none of which are normal or better or worse, except to a given person according to where he finds himself in that quirky combination of millions of decisions and will powers and energy configurations called the economy.
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Having said that, the fact that there is no way millions of jobs needed worldwide can be invented, and since the “automatic market” certainly can’t create them out of thin air, they must simply be subsidized, millions of people worldwide must be paid 3,000 dollars a month just to keep that small part of the economic machine that actually does do concrete work (manufacturing and agriculture) working. There is this moralistic - ideological refrain from giving free salaries because it goes against an imagined meritocracy, or doesn’t allow the economy to grow, etc. But those who think like this don’t see the enormous amount of money that is given as free salaries anyways thanks to technology creating free wealth. This money is given in the form of paying fake jobs and bonuses at wall street and similar, in the from of hundreds of billions to the defense industry, in the 100 trillion dollars worldwide that play that giant poker game called the stock market, in the super bloated health care system in the USA that has way too many parasites and way to many people getting six figure salaries they don’t deserve, etc.
So just be honest about it and say: the era of working is essentially over, technology has automated - optimized work and you shall now get 3,000 dollars a month for living.
Also the scare of population explosion and resource scarcity is another myth: population is not growing so fast anymore, probably will never hit 15 billion and even if it does, the technology we have can host them easily in towers - skyscrapers, high class luxury ones at that, etc.
Another myth is the idea that research, technology and innovation will create “new jobs”. Now aside from the fact that the industries that are high tech like Microsoft, Google, Nokia, IBM etc don’t really need so many workers, and in fact have laid off workers often, these companies make loads of money because they become almost monopolies, they use some intellectual creation and make money over and over again with that one creation that pays itself back millions of times. This is exactly how they get rich. And in the process eliminate thousands of jobs in other sectors using the technology.
Technology kills jobs: the Z80 CPU in the 70s was completely designed and produced in 11 man years (11 men working a year). Imagine that kind of productivity if all tech workers could do the same. But that was a one time quirk in a given period of time, that will never repeat again. And high tech in the end is really based on a few thousand really smart, capable and productive engineers and scientists.
So an industry that really needs only 10,000 top notch technicians is not going to create “millions of new jobs”.
Doom and gloom, peak oil myth, energy and resource scarcity are myths and ghosts that cover up the real issues at hand: housing and work.
There is no reason on earth why housing should cost so much any place on earth, why people should all be forced to “buy houses”, why they have this need “to protect their investment”, etc. It is all a deception: what is needed is cheap rents for high quality homes, the resources are all there, the builders worldwide would build millions of homes in a month if they could get payed.
There is a precise will power, a precise intention to create a false scarcity in housing thereby robbing billions of dollars from normal workers who have normal pays. This is real class warfare that has been going on for decades, home ownership is a deception, myth and is retarded. But people have all been brainwashed: they should all demand cheap rents, the resources are there to build millions if not billions of homes, don’t buy into the deception of peak oil, we are all going to be poor, energy is finishing, etc. It only serves to compress the wealth of millions of normal working families worldwide.
While the rich and property owners laugh and get richer and richer…
Companies and economists have always been praising flexibility, the right to hire and fire and change geographical locations of companies from anywhere to anywhere, etc. Innovation, always change, you have to be willing to move where “the jobs are”, etc. Then why are people so retarded and brainwashed by these same ideologies that they “must buy a home”, etc ? Why don’t the same entities demand cheap rents for the flexibility of the market ? why don’t they themselves furnish the low rent HIGH QUALITY housing for their workers so they can get on with the new jobs and change where and when appropriate ? Why do they all always forget this small detail ?
Because it is a deception, because the same entities that want freedom to hire and fire and constantly change all the rules on the table, want you to buy a home, get stuck with it, and then undergo a great loss when you have to change to the new job, in the new “hot market”.
Lies and deceptions that have been brainwashing people for decades.
[b]There is a precise intentionality in the USA and Worldwide not to ever mention BUSES. When you mention BUSES on this blog or other blogs/forums people always say, “oh you mean that crap I rode in Detroit”, or “that horrible experience I had in that monkey of Austin Texas (less mass transit than in Bangladesh)”, etc. They can’t even imagine that BUSES can be made luxury, high quality, silent inside and out, with private compartments, with scheduling through internet, with a Rolls Royce type suspension system, etc. They can’t imagine how much can be achieved by simple BUSES.
There is an intentionality to not mention BUSES but instead talk about subways, high speed rail, railroads, etc. because rail transit is full of conflict and politics, costs alot of money and will never be done. But since BUSES can be deployed tomorrow morning all through the USA suburbs, the solution would be too easy, we couldn’t believe that the peak oil boogeyman can disappear so easily.
Also, skyscrapers are hugely energy efficient, you wouldn’t believe how much can be achieved with skyscrapers, in Asia they use the same mega building for residence, offices and Malls, you don’t even need BUSES you just need elevators. Wow, talk about saving on gasoline!!!
But you have these greens that criticize skyscrapers, don’t mention BUSES, but all want to grow their own food in their backyards. It is not going to happen, you wouldn’t believe how much excess manufacturing capacity is available worldwide, there are 100 million farmers in the world, let alone using chemical intensive - high tech farming that needs very few farmers to operate.
JHK is living in his own novel, is confusing his imagination with reality, it is like lets make believe energy is finishing, how are we going to deal ? He doesn’t get it that societies can adapt rapidly, can change how they operate very quickly if they want to, they can build a few thousand high quality - luxury skyscrapers, and you don’t even need transportation anymore.[/b]
How much does it cost to rent a home in LA or NYC, where all the jobs are ? alot, so people buy instead of renting. Why were so many people buying into a housing market that was always going up ? they were all brainwashed that they were going to get rich by just waiting that their house triples in value, etc. All this housing deception has brought on foreclosures, the subprime mess, the economic crisis, etc.
Why did the US government want everyone to become homeowners instead of renting ? for ideological reasons, to make banks get rich with the loans, etc.
Why doesn’t anyone ever mention the fact that rents should be aligned to the average going pay rate ? Is that so hard to imagine ? No there is a precise intentionality to brainwash everyone that they are going to get rich by buying homes, by being a property owner, etc. Why doesn’t Obama say, “let the home prices go down as much as possible, so rents become aligned with average salaries” ? Because there is an intentionality to create an artificial scaricty in homes, to squeeze money out of people for housing.
Since most jobs in the future will be minimum wage, 800 dollars a month, an average home should rent for 100 to 200 dollars a month. Of course those working in health care will make 6 or 7 figure salaries because they can squeeze out as much money as possible when people need health care and are in pain.
The Chinese are paranoid and are creating excess real estate, just like the Spain, they are afraid of resource scarcity.
This is part of a large family of ideologies and assumptions that rotate around resource scarcity. Peak oil, population explosion, energy is finishing, land is finishing, food is finishing, etc. are all false beliefs: there has never been so much of the above available and there will be increasingly so as time goes by. But these resource scarcities ideologies feed on the idea that you all have to “compete” for resources, “there is not enough around for everyone”, competition and fighting over resources because there are too little, and this ideology does a great favor to private businesses and corporations that can squeeze out money from poor people through the myth of resource scarcity. So then privatize health care, then housing, then water and eventually food, etc. Cut it off from everyone and make everyone pay for a very scarce resource like health care, housing, water etc.
Never has there been a greater lie: there are no resource scarcities, JHK concentrates himself on oil, but oil is only a small part of the equation of modern civilization, 80 % of that equation is technology, and technology can overcome all and any resource scarcities. Like I said above, we haven’t even begun tapping the potential of simple BUSES, let alone skyscrapers where even BUSES and transportation in general is not even needed ! substitute cars with elevators.
Oil is just carbon chemistry, there are many ways to create a substitute through genetic engineered bacteria, or ethanol as in Brazil, natural gas can be used, methane, biomasses, etc.
Population probably won’t ever reach 10 billion:
check out:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population … rowth_rate
So the excuse that there are too many people is BS. The real problem is that a group of people want to cut off the resources that should go to everyone, they want competition, fighting for resources, war, etc. They want racism, etc.
Since what we have is constant increase of wealth, free wealth through technology, societies don’t know how to deal with it psychologically, it goes against the real resource scarcities that mankind has had since up until about a hundred years ago when technology took over and solved all these problems.
There are even more extreme theories of our infinite resource society, like the technological singularity (computers becoming so smart that they themselves design ever smarter computers until they become no longer understandable by humans), or that medical advances will cross the point where the average lifetime exceeds more than one year every year, so no one will die anymore even if they wanted to because medicine has achieved immortality (but this would eventually increase the population ,hmmm…).
What I think is operating is that the worldwide economy generates so much wealth that societies don’t know how to deal with it, and that wealth generates even more in an endless cycle up to the point of an infinite resource society. I mean the economy goes in crisis mode if we decide to just consume 2 or 3 percent less of our normal consumption…
And maybe the Chinese and arabs in Dubai are building all those skyscrapers because they realize just how hugely energy efficient they are. An investment for the future.
The US builds McMansions, they build skyscrpapers…
Another thing that doesn’t make sense is when kunstler says the suburbs are the greatest misallocation of resources in history. Now, I find this absurd: all of the suburbs in the USA can continue to be exactly as they are, you just need to add sidewalks and tear down a few homes or identify and area within each subdivision that can become a small retail - office center and some parks. It is easy as pie, there are hundreds of architects and creative people in the USA that could imagine and slightly modify the suburbs and eliminate all those things that are wrong with them according to JHK. It seems to me that it is either all or nothing, the dark ages and the world made by hand, or McMansion suburbs with no sidewalks, no buses etc. There is no in between, but this is absurd, there are hundreds of ways to slightly modify the suburbs and make them user friendly.
Maybe “health care” can create millions of jobs by inventing thousands of new sicknesses and selling thousands of “new drugs”, that will then create another set of new sicknesses, etc. If we are all sick health care can create millions of jobs that pay 6 figure incomes. Health Care = Insane …