Growth is Over !

Growth is Over !

Look at all the homes and buildings and stuff built in the USA, EU and JAPAN in the last 100 years. Are we going to build all the stuff all over again from now until 2100 ? No way jose’, so how are these economies actually going to “Grow” anymore ? (you would have to demolish all structures, buildings, houses, cars, etc. and build them all over again, look at the google street views of JAPAN for example or the USA or any other place in the Developed World) Are the populations of these places going to go up as they did in the last 100 years ? No way jose’ (as population going up means building more houses, more stuff to buy and throw away etc.) so growth will never come back again.

All the markets are saturated, can easily be saturated by goods and need little labor to produce all these goods, so growth can’t come back again anymore no matter what. We can grow alot of BS and “Information” (which is mostly useless crap, just like this post), financial BS and “Services” (another word to say, lets play status and power games and break each others chops over who is going to be an impediment to who else according to who is stronger and so forth, nothing real and useful being produced here by a long shot, just like real estate prices going up and hosing everyone and health care and education costs going up and hosing everyone and so forth, everone becomes a problem to everyone else).

And especially are we going to enter a period of Technological Progress like the last 100 years that allowed to hire millions building Cars and TVs and Computers and all such NEW things all over again when technology is over and done with ? everything that could have been done has been done and anyways most things are built in poorer countries due to their low salaries and such. I don’t see any new technologies or inventions needing huge Industry hiring millions of new workers worldwide in sight here for the future. I see a lot of layoffs and restructuring and robots and technology taking away those few jobs left.

BUt the economists keep on chanting this myth of Economic Growth (dont’t believe the numbers they say, like the USA has grown 3 % in 2012 and such, they have to make up the numbers or else admit that the economies are all failed now), they have to, the debts that the USA, EU and JAPAN have are trillions upon trillions of dollars and with essentially ZERO ECONOMIC GROWTH (if not NEGATIVE) there is no way on earth that those debts will ever be paid back no matter what. These places are essentially bankrupt, failed entities are over and done with. Just look at reality:

1. is it easier to find a job now ? NO, never been harder in fact;

2. even if you find a job, is it paid better ? NO! often it is paid way lower than in the past

and ESPECIAllY

3. EVEN IF YOU FIND A JOB (IMPOSSIBLE) AND GET THAT PUNY PAY CAN YOU RENT OR BUY A HOUSE THAT ISN’T MORE THAN 80 % YOUR PUNY SALARY ? DOES HOUSING COST A DECENT PRICE COMPARED TO THE PUNY SALARY ? no way jose’, houses either to rent or buy always cost you your entire monthly salary whether in the USA, or EU or JAPAN, (in the areas where the “JOBS” are, since if you go live in Detroit they cost peanuts but you starve) go figure, the economists never say that in order to have growth housing costs must go way, way down compared to the puny salaries being dealt to all the losers, but they have to hope that “prices recover” which means they are hoping that the rents or costs of houses increase even more compared to the puny salaries.

But then again according to the economists, the puny salaries are all the workers fault: they didn’t get enough “Training”, they don’t have the right “Skill Sets”, they don’t “Innovate enough”, they are not “Competitive enough”, they are not “Flexible enough”, they didn’t create that brand new “Startup” making billions and “hiring thousands”, and so forth and so on, a never ending list of execuses hiding the fact that relations between people is just a power struggle, a war, a fight where no common good or economy will blossom anymore.

TARD

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From:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irreducible_complexity

“Biochemistry professor Michael Behe, the originator of the term irreducible complexity, defines an irreducibly complex system as one “composed of several well-matched, interacting parts that contribute to the basic function, wherein the removal of any one of the parts causes the system to effectively cease functioning””

"Thomas H. Frazzetta. “A complex adaptation is one constructed of several components that must blend together operationally to make the adaptation “work””

To understand why the “Economic Growth” cycle is over and done with, consider that the economy is an example of a system that is simply of “Irreducible Compexity”: all of the well matched, interlocking and interacting forces and parts and conditions and configurations and combinations that made the 20th century economy develop so fast and for so many decades was a one time quirk, a one time lucky break composed of so many parts, so many one time parts (like the introduction of Cars and Airplanes and TVs and all other kinds of technology increasing the standard of living), many factories paying first world salaries to workers in the USA, EU and JAPAN (no cheap competition from outsourcing, 3rd world workers), more natural resources left to exploit (more and cheaper oil), less pollution and constraints on the environment, a more open and optimistic psychological culture - social expectations - younger population, no health care prices going sky high or college costs going sky high or home rents going sky high and so forth, a never ending stream of interlocking parts and conditions creating a very fragile and delicate system of Irreducible Complexity whereas just a slight change of one of the parts creates all kinds of feedback loops that change the system into something else forever and no chance of ever going back again.

That is what we have today: the end of that growth economy and the beginning of the stagnating economy that will end up becoming mostly poverty for 60 to 70 percent of the population worldwide including the developed world since there is absolutely no project or plan to change anything at all: no large scale projects hiring millions to go to Mars for example, no governments hiring millions to simply give people a salary when work is no longer needed anyways, no building millions of skyscrapers, no free salaries and cheap rents and so forth, none of the only things that could change the system back into a system capable of distributing some of the huge wealth a Technological Economy automatically generates.

What we will end up having is a very mediocre standard of living maybe 20 to 30, at most 40 % of what we have today, some 600 to 1000 dollars a month pay to all workers worldwide (those few that work) and a convergnce of very average living conditions between all countries: the USA won’t live much better than Indonesia and so forth.

But it will be gradual, no big jumps, just a slow decline and the end of the great leap forward the 20th century was. Most people will lead very average lives, no great wealth anymore, bar none, only the rich will be ever richer as usual.

TARD

Also:

From:

blogs.lse.ac.uk/eurocrisispress/ … -of-chaos/

"I find it amazing that probably the most important reason for so many problems in Italy is the cost of housing, the home prices and the rents, and nobody mentions or notices this!

This is the real crux of the problems in Italy: home prices tripled each decade from 1966 to 2006: a typical 80 square meter home in Rome (where the “jobs” are) went from costing 5000 dollars in 1966 to 15,000 in 1976 to 50,000 dollars in 1986 to 150,000 dollars in 1996 to almost 500,000 dollars in 2006. No one notices this or talks about this, this is incredible, but there is a reason: 80 percent of Italy are owners of homes and want to protect the “value” of their homes more than anything else, were all happy for this huge inflatiuon of home prices and so forth. All of the money saved went into buying homes, is crystallized in the home prices and this forced the rents to be sky high and effectively truly blocked the economy for many years and will keep on blocking it until these prices go way, way down.

A typical person in Rome or Milan can make 1,000 euros a month salary or 1,200, a typical small 50 square meter flat rents for 800 euros a month or more (usually more), now please tell me, what kind of economy can be based on this ? houses costing your entire salary ? The economy will never recover or even survive under these conditions of home prices, but everyone will keep on protecting their past wealth in the form of high home prices unitl the prices suddenly collpaes to zero, just like Detroit.

And notice, no one wants to build “new homes” for “ecological reasons”; in all truth they are hiding the fact that new homes could force the prices of the ones already built lower. And noticd no one wants to tax homes, they should be taxed one percent their market value, a 300,000 euro valued home in Rome or Milan should pay 3,000 euros a year of tax, finally the prices would collpase and maybe the economy could start going again."

This applies to most of the developed world anyways: in Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York City, Paris, London, Moscow and so forth Tokyo, Seoul and so on, it is always the same story, housing rents cost more than the average salary, hence growth is doomed no matter what, no forces want to change any of this, so this is the end of growth and it is happening very rapidly in China, Brazil etc. Shanghai prices are sky high, same for RIO de janeiro and so forth.

“Look at all the homes and buildings and stuff built in the USA, EU and JAPAN in the last 100 years. Are we going to build all the stuff all over again from now until 2100 ? No way jose’, so how are these economies actually going to “Grow” anymore ?”

Just one fast calulation: if the worldwide value of all buildings and houses is 100 trillion dollars, that means that you would have to build 1 trillion dollars a year of houses for 100 years to equal the amount of houses made in the 20th century. So that would add up to building some 10 million houses or apartments a year worldwide for the next 100 years. So 5 million single family homes and some 5 million apartments a year worldwide or some 100,000 apartment buildings a year worldwide or some 200 buildings a day.

I don’t see any of that huge amount of construction going on worldwide, not even by a long shot: I think China stopped building so many buildings in the last few years since they are now choking on empty apartments and they keep the prices sky high and way out of reach of any average salary in China (since apartments are “investments”, are “cash” made up of bricks, go figure, such an idiotic idea, use cash as a weapon to beat up those who have less), so how is the worldwide economy going to grow at all ? They won’t build the buildings if they can’t sell of rent them but at the same time they won’t give out salaries such that any average person can buy or rent them, hence growth is over and done with.

No way jose’, give it up, it is over, doomed, we are doomed…

TARDHEAD

Of course it would be funny if this prediction was all wrong and we had decades of hypergrowth in the near future, millions of jobs, high paying jobs, cheap homes and so forth: it could be since our minds are always wrong, any model or theory is always wrong no matter what and this is because of the nature of “Irreducible Complexity”: a system can undergo any phase transition and become something else without any possibility of knowing how or why, the reasons are intractable or probably more correctly, there are no reasons or theories or models for the way irreducibly complex systems evolve and change. Anything goes.

But beware of all the politicians and economists blaming this or that for “low growth” or chanting that we need more competition or flexibility or education to “spark growth” and create jobs or that we need any other things like less taxes or any new laws or anything at all and all such BS: nothing further from the truth, they all have an agenda, they are all biased to obtain some gain against someone else, to change things in their favor (mostly in favor of the capitalists and owner class and rich) and so forth. And beware of all the morality BS, the corruption BS and so forth, always blaming some group or someone or something for some “Morally Wrong” behavior and such (too much tax evasion or too much corruption or Obama sucks or anything else), this has nothing to do with the economy: the econmy is independent of all of this and depends only on a chance configuration of interlocking forces and conditions…

TARDHEAD

We are the way the universe overcomes the “Laws of Physics”: we are the points of the universe where it relinquishes the Iron Fist Prison of the Laws of Physics, we are the singularities, the black holes, the volumes of Space and Time where these concepts and all other logical concepts are no longer valid. Our simple random choices and free will, what we do moment by moment follows no laws accept random laws we decide to make exist at the moment for any or no reasons at all, we are actually the points where “Free Physics” can actually instantiate itself, we are where all kinds of random, quirky, illogical and senseless “cause and effects” can be invented for obscure, intractable personal reasons or models or ideas a civilazation, the human race self programs itself to have and so forth.

I decided to write these symbols on this page: what logic could have ever predicted this, what equations, who could have guessed it ? and what other new sequence of symbols will be written where and for what reason any place in the universe ? and so forth and so on.

And so it is with all the actions and reactions, the interlocking interactions humans have between themselves, all the fights, thoughts, struggles, wars (who could have predicted, in that exact moment and place the explosion of an atomic bomb on Hiroshima if an alien race where looking at the planet from far away and noticing this effect ? how could they ever know why or how ? and so forth).

So if just one human, one Man Brain one person is a point of space time where physics is no longer valid thanks to that person’s free will, then imagine hundreds or billions of people interacting, the laws of physics are no longer operating at all if only as a background, a stage upon which the real events which are all arbitrary and random and a fluke are taking place, and where all the real events, exactly because they pertain to humans and the effect they have on their pain/pleasure circuits, the only ones that really define reality occur.

So being that the “Economy” is based on these “elementary particles” which follow no Laws of Physics, nothing can really ever be said about it, it is totally unpredictable, outside of the sphere of science, any science.

But then again, the laws of physics break down as soon as you try to predict the motion of three interacting particles, the three body problem has no solution, so the universe and reality is essentially lawless, has no laws, only some vague laws that we use to format reality according to our mental models, so that we can use it to speak to ourselves essentially, it is all a game of dependent and independent parts, surprises, and control, logical segments flung upon the world, but imagine how many new logical segments can be flung upon all you see, all that exists, according to all kinds of paths and according to all kinds of observers, the tree is an observer and the logical segment is a car tire to interact with a sun and so forth.

TARDHEAD 8

That was from :

instantsingularity3.blogspot.it/

instantsingularity1.blogspot.it/

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I have the impression that when the time comes, the powers that be can simply fabricate growth, can impose it, can make it happen anyways since it is mostly a man made construction : they have access to trillions of dollars worldwide (and even more since the money can be printed) and when they get together and “decide” that a country or region will become the new “superstar” the new growth economy, the new boom economy, they will all pour in and “invest” (which really means hundreds of these large corpartions open offices, hire thousands and hundreds of thousands, and so forth) all giving the impression of being independent and being a natural state of affairs when in all truth it was decided and fabricated and constructed in stealth mode, underground without anyone noticing and so forth.

And so it was with China and Brazil, and so it was with JAPAN and Korea and Western Europe from the 1950s to 2000 and so it will be with Indonesia, Vietnam, Turkey, Peru, Mexico and so forth and when they get tired of these (since the game is all about change and creating inequalities, even worldwide regional inequalities to create movements of money and activity and so forth) all of a sudden Southern Europe and Spain, Greece and Italy will “boom” again, they will become once again the New Superstars and so forth and so on.

It is all just a game, a make believe…remember Argentina 10 years ago (they crashed and were in default, depression), now they are booming again or so it seems…

TARDHEAD 79999

 But wouldn't the effect of at par standards worldwide create a possibility for the complexity to be reduced to overcome the effects of apparent  differences, to the point where the pivotal  points may be neutralised?  And wouldn't this process go toward reducing the inflationary effects that such pressure points create, whereby relieving some of the anxiety about the value of basic needs, including housing?