We are now 15 days from the next election and here is what we know.
Most places suggest the GOP will retain the house and most places suggest the GOP
will win the senate with around 50 to 55 seats. There are a couple of variables that
might change this, ONE is polling. There are less polls this year than in the last
couple of elections cycle. This means the polls are telling those who forecast these
things much less information. forecasting really only works if you have a lot of
polls and they really don’t have as many. because of the election cycle and where
the senate is being voted on, which states, this means the GOP is in position to
gain seats and the DEMO’s to lose seats. Now at more local level, the DEMO’S seem
to be in a good position to claim a lot of governor races. This suggest that the demographic
wave that is coming for the DEMO’s is starting to take effect. this will really become
apparent in 2016 and beyond. Unless something drastic happens in the next two years,
the GOP will be swept out of power starting in 2016. The strength of the GOP is
in its hold over the old people and they are dying off and the strength of the DEMO’S is
in minorities, young and women. All of whom will gain in numbers in the coming years,
especially minorities. The social issues which are dominated by the DEMO’S will be gaining
strength in the coming years. The economic issues which have been DEMO’S weakness in the
past will become another strength in the coming years. The economy improves during
the DEMO’S time and weakens during the GOP time and the DEMO’s will finally start
to highlight this fact. Now the country itself may or may not become more liberal,
but the policies of the left are far more favorable to the middle and lower class and
that will start paying dividends in the years to come.
My guess this is the last hurrah of the GOP unless something dramatic happens.
After the upcoming blowout of 2016 over the GOP, then that party will self destruct
and one or more new parties will emerge. A social party focus on social issues and
a economic party, focused on small government and less taxes. This division will
lead to the GOP being a small regional party for a while until they get their act together,
maybe by 2020 or 2024 and then the whole battle will begin again.
It is not true that only increased polling gives a clear message, even less polling also tells something.
[b]As a thumb rule, if voting percentage remains stagnant or decreases, odds are in the favor that the incumbent party would would win, unless the last election was not an unusual one.
Every demography use to have its own general poll percentage. It increases only in extraordinary circumstances, either in more hope or fear than a voter can digest. [/b]
Ok, 6 days out from the and there is a lot of uncertainty out there.
This is probably the most wide open election in over 10 years.
No one really knows what is going to happen. The best guess right
now is the GOP takes the senate somewhere around 52 or 53 to 47 to 45 with
a couple of independents out there that could caucus with either side.
The DEMO’S seem ready to take a majority of governorships and other local
elections. Given that 2016 is right now looking bad for the GOP, I would take
winning the majority of local elections because it spells out the coming
demographic swing that is about to take out the GOP. States that haven’t been blue
in a long while are slowly turning blue such as Texas, North Carolina, even Georgia.
Or said another way, states that have increased immigration are turning blue.
So given the current state of things, I would be happy with a senate of
GOP with 52 or so and the DEMO’S with 48. I would prefer a democratic senate but
that will occur in 2016 and with a little luck we might take the house also along with
the presidency because frankly, the GOP got no one worth electing for president in 2016.
If your best candidate is Jeb bush, you are in a lot of trouble.
Peter, the Democrats and Republicans change power on purpose. It keeps any upstart movement from catching on. Those hidden behind the curtains keep control. Republicans are not going anywhere, they will modify stances as the Democrats will.
They’ve got a long way to go from racist, sexist, classist, and selfish to get to anything that’s going to be sustainably electable. The problem is that as more and more people become politically aware as a result of the increase in technology and information available to the general public, less and less people think that elections are about abortion and gun rights and gay marriage and more people start to understand that economics is the means by which most people are truly oppressed. Only old people still worship the rich. “I’m glad my boss throws me the bone that he does when I’m done slaving for him, without him I’d be nothing”, or “I’m glad we have a billionaire class because in America I can become a billionaire”, or “If we don’t let the rich get richer then who will give us slave jobs for peanuts? How will we live? Poor people never gave me a job”. It’s just ridiculous when you really think it through and most people understand these things nowadays. It’s that pesky notion that majority should rule that’s working against republicans, which is why they celebrate citizens united, and spend so much money trying to make sure that less people can vote. Same shit that was happening then the KKK had a bit of power. People are wising up and starting to realize it and it wont last another generation.
Don’t count them out, they are recruiting more and more liberal young Republicans. Look at what they have already done. They developed the utter right wing Tea party and proceeded to ostracize them. That right wing tumor is almost removed, just as the Democrats are removing their ultra leftwing tumor.
I am glad people are beginning to see the oppression/tyranny is the economic
just as good old Karl Marx said it was. This economic is driving the political and
social agenda of the U.S and by driving, I mean paying for such as the KOCK brothers
and Anderson of Nevada casino’s. I agree with the whole two party is really just fronts
for the wealthy and their agenda, however the party with the better platform of
justice and equality is the democrats, and so I shall continue to fight for them until
a better choice comes along. a better choice being a true liberal party, not the shame
that is the democratic party which is the only slightly to the left of the current
GOP party almost but not quite which is enough to recommend the democratic party.
Tell that to the millions of practically illiterate small business owners who think that Ayn Rand is a philosopher. You think Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney are close enough to the center?
Anything out of any politician’s mouth is filled with lies and decorated with small pretty truths. To believe any is to be hypnotized by small pretty truths. I don’t follow particular politicians, just party lies… err, lines…
I’m not talking about over the whole course of history. I’m talking about citizen’s united and the koch brothers “think tanks” that are used to spread right wing propaganda to people who don’t know how to sort shit from fact.
Ok.
Ever notice young bright eyed slay the dragon politicians in either party generally preach middle then if elected and reelected go down the paths of left or right? The ones not reelected did not stray left or right or they really screwed up. The Koch and others are selectors or directors. They still are not Oz behind the curtain.