A fun little probability puzzle for you.

[Motor_Daddy]

@Flannel Jesus

I feel like you’re so close, you’re so very close.

There’s a 98% chance, once we’ve seen the first blue ball, that the bag we chose is full of blue balls. You agree with that.

There’s a 2% chance, then, that the bag we chose is full of red balls. If that is the case, we’ve taken the only blue ball out of that bag and the rest are all red.

It’s really as simple as that. That’s all there is to it, and it doesn’t produce any contradictions like the ones you’re experiencing.

But I’m not sure you’ve really seen the contradiction in your view yet. Have you? Or should I go into more detail?

Do you agree that the 98% came from dividing 50 by 51?