You cited an article saying that says scientists earn so much. I was explaining that it’s not to fund their ‘lavish’ lifestyles. What these people are doing isn’t a business, they’re not looking to maximize returns on their investment. I really don’t believe, if as you have said you were invited to be a professor, you believe the myth of the ‘greedy academic’ who is looking to hoard cash. People become academics because it’s an easy going lifestyle and they’re their own boss. It’s not for the money. Financial reward is readily available in industry.
“Again, I’m going to reiterate that it’s not a ‘right to talk’, and that my field is not specifically global warming and am not an ‘expert’, but the right to issue authoritative statements.”
I have a professor who’s an advocate of nuclear energy. I’m sceptical about the cost/benefit of nuclear power plants. But I don’t go out and say “CHERNOBYL PROVES IT’S NOT SAFE”, I ask him questions, try to see things from his angle, the reports he refers to, and form an educated opinion. I might challenge some of his assumptions.
And correct information has huge value, whatever forum it’s in. This is how rumors start, this is how the public is confused, and this is how bad decisions are made on the individual as well as the national level (e.g. condoms are the cause of aids). This is how I’m affected, and everyone else. Misinformation is a scourge.
It’s not North America. It’s, as I said, the Northern Hemisphere. I’ve given you the link to the report, and the page number, you just have to click and scroll down a page. The Northern Hemisphere, for this report, includes samples from Northern Europe, Southern Europe, Siberia, Central Asia, China, and America. Statistical methods are meant to be representative of the population, but noone ever takes a sample that’s comparable to the population. I don’t know why you imply that you do. That would be a waste of the negligible part of your tax that goes to support a few dozen institutions doing work on the subject. That eliminates the point. Statistics take a small sample (not that thousands of trees, in various reports, from 3 continents is small), and represent a large population. I don’t know why you’re arguing against statistical methods. If Maine is letting you down on global warming, I suggest South East Asia.
They take average temperatures. The only response to that is that Maine isn’t the center of the world, although I don’t know Maine’s temperature change to tell you if you’re correct or not. But Europe, Siberia, China, America, indicate warming. The reason countries don’t take action is that economic growth is at risk here. Burn coal, make money now, or insure the next generation by making heavy investments and costly reductions? Russia has the world’s largest reserves of gas, and is actively seeking to improve supply chains, as witnessed by its planned pipeline bypassing troublesome Ukraine. It’s all straightforward economics.
As I’ve said before, if an engineer says “you’re 90% likely to die in this car if we don’t do x to fix y problem”, the person will let it be fixed. If a plane is said to have a so and so chance of crashing, it’s not going to be allowed to take off. The whole ‘send waste uranium into space’ issue was, other than cost, binned on safety grounds because spacecraft have only a 95% chance of success. 5% and the idea’s gone.
Statistical methods deal with uncertainty. I’ll state the obvious: x=1 does not need statistical methods (i.e. flat earth doesn’t need an uncertainty model because it’s a known matter). The next roll of the die on the other hand, does, because there’s a variable. There’s uncertainties in the models, hence the reason for probabilities. I don’t know why I have to deal with your attempts to mock simple concepts. You’ve become so entrenched in your opinions because you have been sceptical “for years”. People make many mistakes “for years”. Fourier was before you. Arhenius was before you. One would think they were more capable at scientific matters. There’s nothing wrong with changing opinions.
Global cooling was hardly a ‘crisis’. It never got the scientific or public attention that warming has got, and doesn’t have the historic scientific base. But that’s what happens anyway, science is not a finalist field. We work with the information that we have. The more time and money goes into something, as has gone into warming, the less likely that it’s going to be completely incorrect because it’s going to be subject to more tests. Xunzian had a very nice Isaac Asimov article addressing the whole “it was wrong before, therefore it’s bound to be wrong forever” argument, which I’ve just found again: chem.tufts.edu/answersinscience/ … fwrong.htm
Science changes when there’s better data. People should be less hardheaded and do so as well.