Election prediction

Philosophy Forums Society, Government, and Economics
1

just before the 2020 election, I predicted a Biden victory
and I also predicted both Arizona and Georgia going blue…
here are my 2024 election predictions…

One: That Harris will get 10 to 15 million more votes
than IQ45… so, IQ45 had, roughly 71 million votes
and Biden got 81 million votes… I am suggesting that
IQ45 will get less votes, perhaps 70 million votes and
Harris will get around 84 or 85 million votes…

Two: I also predict that the blue wall of 2020, Pennsylvania,
Michigan, and Wisconsin, will also remain blue… IQ45 won’t
turn a single blue state red… but in a shocking twist,
two red states will go blue… North Carolina and perhaps
the biggest twist, Florida will go blue… now if that is true,
IQ45 has no path to winning the 2024 election, none whatsoever…

Three: that Harris will win in a blowout… perhaps 305 to 340
electoral votes… EV… The percentages will be around 52% for
Harris and 46% for IQ45…

Four: that third party candidates will have no impact on this
election…

Five: that this election will be driven by women voting,
not men… and the primary reason will be the loss of Roe
vs Wade… as I have been married for 28 years, I have
learned one thing, an angry woman is a vindicative woman…
and women are really, really angry this election and they
will take it out on the GOP/MAGA party…

Six: the polls are really, really wrong this year…
this is not a close race in any, way, shape or form…

that is my take on this election, what is your take?

Kropotkin

1 Like
2

here are secondary thoughts on the election…
One: Ted Cruz loses in Texas… and good riddance…

Two: Texas barely, and a I mean barely stays red…
I suspect the less then 100,000 votes keep Texas red…
and the reason… just like Florida, Texas has been badly
run for years… people keep moving there for the no taxes,
but they don’t move there for the culture, there isn’t any,
nor do they move there for the weather, which is really,
really crappy, outside of the no personal income tax,
there is actually no reason on earth to move to Texas…
and like I said, the government there sucks…
as it does in Florida… and the GOP/MAGA party will
suffer big losses in Florida for that reason…
Desantis just refused phone calls from both Biden and
Harris about FEMA relief in Florida… I think that will be
the final straw that sends the GOP/MAGA party into defeat…

Kropotkin

3

One of the things that win elections, is to expand the
coalition that supports one… as Harris as done,
she has expanded the groups that now support her…
but ask yourself, what has IQ45 done to expand those
who might vote for him? Has he reached out to women,
nope, or minorities, nope, the religious, only pretend
Christians, he certainly hasn’t reach out to the Jews or
any other religious group… so, who exactly has he
tried to reach? how has he expanded the number of
people to vote for him? He hasn’t… that is why I believe
that he will lose votes from the last election… from
71 million votes to 70 or even 69 million votes
IQ45 has a ceiling of voters, and that ceiling has been
pretty much 48% over both federal elections… I suspect
that this election, his numbers will drop down into 47 or
possibly even 46%… why, he has lost voters and hasn’t gained
any groups of voters…his apocalyptic vision of America is only
going to appeal to a certain group… those who live in fear…
and that group is dying off every single day…

So, one might think or believe that IQ45 will win, but
what group has he expanded to vote for him?

Kropotkin