There appear to be older threads on this matter (this site goes back many years) but lm interested in a new 3-5 year projection for the USD.
The US dollar is a foreign currency reserve for many countries beside USA, in fact over 58% of world currency reserves are USD.
Therefore l’m not just talking about USA e,g, I hear Trump is coaxing countries to give up their USD reserves, so as to make them less viable as cheap exporters to the USA. How will this affect the USD value?
I also heard that whilst this might be good for USA in the short term, real estate eventually takes a hit because people are squirrelling away less money into that, and so eventually Trump becomes a victim of his own success. I don’t fully undestand it or how that too will affect USD.
The Gold standard is meaningless.
It’s just a commodity and it is stupid the base a currency upon a real thing. Just never made sense. Makes your country vulnerable to the opening up of a new mine.
A metal standard. Gold or Silver would just make Australia or South Africa the most powerufl nations.
As it is OIL is the starndard for Petro-dollars and this has made Arabia superrich since 1974 when OPEC ringed the market.
Crypto is the new Idiocy. But until seriousl moves are made to control and tax profits in Crypto is going to lead to the ruin of our economies the world over.
It’s all part of the same psychosis.
Money not backed by commodities, by anything tangible, and words not referring to anything tangible, anything experienced…produce minds floating in limbo.
Hate to do this but…
Isn’t this what I explained, concerning how they’ve defined the words in the concept ‘free-will’?
Fiat money.
Fiat ideas.
Abstractions with no reference to anything in the experienced world.
The American dollar replaced Messiah… the saviour.
The dollar could take upon itself the sins of its holder.
It could “correct” the holder’s genetic failures. His physical and psychological flaws.
It is backed by the economical health of the nation.
Sadly, in a system where money can be created by the press of a button, we can never rely on the relationship between the money and the economic health to be trustworthy.
But that is different from what you are saying and does not validate a system based arbitrarily on some metal or other.
You might as well base in on seashells,
BRICS might produce its own commodity based currency… or simply establish and grow an alternate exchange and credit system, leaving the dollar outside…
A US without a dominant dollar, is a dead empire.
How will it impose sanctions?
How will it print money, at will, to deal with the deficits its endless wars produce?
The greatest threat to US hegemony is BRICS.
And Trump knows it…and Trump was elected, by his handlers, his donors, to deal with this looming disaster, by trying to bribe Russia, rather than threaten her…to break up with China.
But who trusts the US these days…the Empire of Lies?
US has zero credibility in the world outside tis vassal states… where trump is finishing the job
His anti-woke agenda deals with the other threat, created by the other faction of America’s elite class…
An empire that cannot replenish its human resources as efficiently as another, is handicapped.
It hurts, so you want to hurt me back.
Canada goes the way of the empire…along with what remains of America’s dominion: Australia, Britain, New Zealand, Canada…Scotland, Wales, and most of what remains of tis western European vassal states…those that adopted the American model, by force…
Now, they are being forced by the empire to pay for the empire’s upkeep, because it cannot.
The days of pillaging the wealth of other nations, via its corporations, is all but done.
What will happen to these nations.
Europe may choose to establish its United states of Europe, with tis own army and external affairs policy…
The fate of the anlgosphere is uncertain.
They have the natural resources but not the culture nor an ethnic foundation…like the US they are based on an idea with no tangible references…nothing in the experienced world. They are founded on a concepts.
Definitely no.
US has lost all credibility.
Nobody trusts anything its leaders say. Empire of Lies.
US presidents are not in charge, any way… and the US is immersed in an internal struggle, at the moment.
To be a “To be an enemy of the US is dangerous; to be a friend of the US is deadly”…Kissinger
America has been indoctrinated in the chosen one’s methods.
Putin is too clever to abandon China, because Trump is trying to bribe him with promises.
Trump will be gone… then what?
The dollar will rise to a degree but Trump actually wants to devalue the dollar for economic reasons. And the dollar is already on the trajectory to serious devaluation under inflation anyway. BRICS and other efforts to dedollarize will lead to much more inflation, as will continued Fed money printing. Some smarter economists have noted that the dollar is the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry; therefore it might go up or appear stronger than other currencies but this is only relative to how poorly everything else is doing.
And the dollar is the main reason why other currencies are doing poorly, because America exports its debt to other countries and causes other currencies to inflate and lose value. That is an inevitable effect of 1) the dollar as world reserve currency, 2) America being the mass global importer of goods and services that it is, and 3) the Fed abusing the printing press and creating countless trillions of dollars out of thin air that were not actually earned as real world value-creation (which is what money is supposed to symbolize and represent).
Fiat currencies all go to zero in the end, and the dollar has been pure fiat for over 50 years now. Not that long perhaps in terms of the age of the country itself, so we are not quite there yet. And the world reserve status thing also helps to delay and kick the can down the road some more. But be assured, the dollar IS losing value every day and this will continue to accelerate. One dollar has already lost more than 99% of its purchasing power compared to what it used to buy in real terms of goods and services. With debts on exponentially increasing trajectories and the clueless autocrats at the Fed and federal government in charge and ready to try and print their way out of economic hardship and debt interest payments, you can be sure it’s going parabolic. In fact it already is going parabolic.
One way they can save the system is to replace the dollar with something else. That is probably the digital dollar, although they might call it something else. The digital amero has been on the table for a while. I can see Trump being the one to bring that into fruition. First they inflate the dollar to such a huge extent, making it possible to actually keep making debt payments, but then using financial crisis and loss of confidence in the dollar as an excuse to create a new digital currency and revalue or peg this to gold at a much higher rate in terms of dollar units, as would reflect the super-inflated dollar of the near future. They can do this, I mean it’s not impossible. Once they super inflate the dollar, say 10x what it is today over a period of 5-10 years, that reduces their debt burden by almost a factor of 10. Especially if they inflate further or get this done in a shorter span of time. Then the economy collapses, they introduce a new currency that is pegged to gold at 40% thus ‘stable’ and people can trust it, and they make sure the revaluation is on par with the nominal value of gold to dollars just prior to the dollar’s collapse. One new amero = 10,000 dollars, for example. With prices already so high, a loaf of bread costing $50 or more, they can get away with this. 1/100 of an amero would now buy two loaves of bread, that seems reasonable. Meanwhile, the $50 trillion of federal debt can now be paid off since the 10x devaluation of the dollar has been transferred into the amero, and people have been made to trust it and keep using it because of muh gold backing and because the media says they should. Now we only owe $5 trillion in debt, because its going to be paid back in pre-inflated ameros. Also because it’s going to be digital and part of a much broader web 3+ immersive blockchain-based ubiquitous system that will also probably already be giving out UBI at this point and anyone who wants to keep getting their UBI will need to register for the new digital Fed ID and their digital Amero account.
In nominal dollar terms this becomes a pareto distribution effect resulting from reordering normality at the decimal point level. In other words, it takes a lot to move from 1 to 2, less to move from 2 to 3, and eventually to move from 9 to 10 occurs almost all at once. This doesn’t make sense unless you understand the COMPOUNDING effect in terms of relative value:
Going from 1 to 2 is a 100% increase, a 2x move
Going from 2 to 3 is a 50% increase, a 1.5 times move
Going from 9 to 10 is an 11% increase, a 1.111 times move
and,
Going from 99 to 100 is only an 1% increase, a 1.01 times move (occurs almost instantaneously, relative to previous sizes of moves)
Now consider the underlying pressure of increasing based upon the size of overall capital and debt in the system. We already see how it becomes easier and easier to increase in the same nominal terms over time, and that isn’t even factoring in the compounding nature of debt as interest on the debt. In terms of Pareto, it means the majority of all nominal debt-increase is going to occur at the far tail end of the distribution, i.e. at the far 10% you can end up seeing 90% or more of the total debt accumulation (dollar devaluation). And think about that, because we aren’t even there yet. We are just somewhere in the middle, or nearing the end of the middle phase. All the debt we already have, is a quite tiny amount compared to what will be generated only in the very far end of the end phase. THAT is parabolic and THAT is what collapse looks like. Just ask Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany if you doubt it.
In the short term, the US Dollar will quickly lower in value abroad and off-shore, but be propped-up by inflationary or deflationary pressure within the Domestic United States. The Trump Administration committed itself to Deflationary actions during the 2024 Election. He may in fact do this well, depending on his Energy policies and agenda. If he reinstitutes the Keystone Pipeline deal, gets it setup quickly, then cheaper oil will help alleviate a lot of economic pressure.
The “problem” is US Dollars overseas. The corrupt Democratic policies were quite genius and insidious. They spent billions and trillions of dollars overseas, which will lose their value the quickest, in the hands of foreign governments and investors. Those investors, like the Chinese have been doing, will attempt to “get their money back” by buying into US Commodities and Markets. The Chinese have done this with US Real Estate, and have played a big part in rising housing costs across the US. Because that’s the safest, long-term return on foreign dollars.
The gamble though, is that future US Administrations will not hamstring these foreign investors with new international trade laws.
What the US Bureaucracy under Democrats originally wanted was… Governmental bribes, foreign campaign investments, donations, and back-pocket money laundering deals. Trump cutting USAID is purported to destroy most of that Democrat-Leftist international money grifting. How successful it will be, is yet to be determined.
The Internationalists only need to wait another 4 years, before returning their foreign US Dollars back into the US political process.
As America’s dominion recedes so will its influence and control, over the institutions it established to maintain its dominance.
Pillaging the world’s natural and human resources, was the method used to maintain America’s wealth, and technological advantages.
Through corporations, and the lie that the US is a democracy, it imposed on the world its will…or the will of its elites.
Those behind these multinational corporations.
Globalization was the objective.
Americanism = Globalism.
But the project failed, and now the US is scrambling to reinvent itself.
Trump, representing his funders, is push-back to America’s policies.
An internal war is currently underway - a low grade Civil War.
A war between America’s ruling elites…mostly of one particular kind.
No longer WASP.
The short answer is that the USD have fallen agianst other currencies since Trump.
But too early to say what the consequences are.
It is doubtful, though that it will drop enough to balance the propsoed tariffs he has threatened.
What is more clear is that whilst the US people are already visibility poorer for his actions, there are those close to the Whitehouse that are making a packet from what is “uncertainty” to some and “known” to those profiteering.
Melania Trump has cashed in billions since January.
Voters need to be acquainted to the fact that health of shares and markets is not related to the economic health of the nation, nor to their families.
Unemployment caused by the chainsaw in DOGE will soon lead to homlessness. and dirt poverty.
Does anybody know why Gold is plummetting despite a poor USD?
The “experts” have uniformly b/s-ed the world about this, saying gold will go stratospheric this year.
