Discuss the implications of the new generation. ^_-
What does this say about the state of affairs in westernized nations?
TOP 10 TRENDS OF THE NEW DECADE:
2010-2020
As we move into the second decade of the 21st Century, Social Researcher and
Futurist Mark McCrindle outlines 10 key trends that will define this next decade.
-
THE RISE AND RISE OF AUSTRALIA’S POPULATION
In 2000 Australia had a population of 19 million and the population growth rate had
slowed to 1.2%. However over the last decade it has defied the predictions and
rather than slowing, the population increase has accelerated, finishing the decade
breaking 22 million with a population growth rate twice what was expected, hitting
2% per annum. This decade will see Australia’s population hit 27 million.
“The highest ever birth numbers, combined with the lowest ever death rate, and
record net migration have combined to provide the perfect storm of population
growth over the last few years” states Mark McCrindle. “A decade ago it was
predicted that Australia’s population by mid-century would hit 27 million however at
our current record breaking growth, with our population growing by an extra million
people every two years, it is likely that it will hit this mark in 2020.” -
AUSTRALIA’S MINI BABY BOOM
Australia began the last decade with the lowest birth rate on record with a total
fertility rate (babies per woman) of 1.7 (2001). It was thought that the birth rate
would drop to 1.5 by the end of the decade but the reverse occurred. Australia
finished 2009 with the highest total fertility rate for 32 years (now at 1.97 it is close
to 2.01 of 1977) and the highest number of births ever (296,261). Also the women
having the most babies today are those in their 30’s rather than those in their
20’s of a decade ago. The highest fertility continues to belong to females aged
30-34 years (127.8 babies per 1,000 women) – the highest for this cohort since -
Similarly, women aged 35-39 years reached the highest rate for this cohort
since 1948! This baby boom will continue with annual births exceeding 300,000
throughout the decade ahead. The number of women having no children in their
lifetime is rising- currently it is 1 in 4 yet the Total Fertility Rate is also rising –
caused by the women who are having children having slightly larger families than
those of a decade ago. Indeed the average number of children per household (of
those who are having children) is now back up to 3. -
FROM XERS & Y’S TO ZEDS & GENERATION ALPHA
The last decade began with us analysing Generation X and welcoming Generation
Y. Born since 1980, Gen Y in 2000 were children and teenagers while in 2010 the
oldest of them turn 30 and become parents (30 is the average age of an Australian
woman having a child). While the last decade saw the birth of Generation Z - born
Mark McCrindle
Senior Researcher
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from 1995 to 2009, it will be in the decade ahead that most in this generation move
through their teenage years and move towards independence. A generation today
spans 15 years which means that 2010 marks the start of the next generation:
Generation Alpha. They will be the most formally-educated generation in history –
starting education younger than ever and projected to stay in education for longer
than ever. As the children of older, wealthier parents, in two-income households
and with more entertainment and technological options, it is likely that they will be
the most materially-supplied generation of children ever. -
THE AGEING POPULATION
The last decade began with the Baby Boomers ranging in age from the mid 30’s
to early 50’s and it concludes with some of the Boomers entering retirement and
becoming pensioners. This is the start of the age wave hitting Australia. By the end
of this decade (2020) there will be more 65 year olds than 1 year olds. In 2020 life
expectancy at birth will exceed 81 for a male and 86 for a female, and almost 1 in 5
Australians will be aged over 60. Over the next 4 decades while the total population
will increase by just over half, the 65 and over population will more than double and
the 85 and over population will triple. This ageing population will affect everything
from the national accounts, to demands on health and housing, to the workforce.
In 2020 the never-grow-old Baby Boomers will be in their 60’s and 70’s, and the
oldest Gen Xers will be in their 50’s- and themselves beginning to exit from the
labour force. -
REDEFINED LIFESTAGES: TWITS, NETTELS AND THE DOWNAGERS
The last decade saw the emergence of the TWITS (Teenage Women in Their
Thirties). This emerging segment provides a real comment on our times. Once
adulthood was marked by marriage, getting a mortgage and starting a family but
today for many, these milestones have been delayed. Indeed many women have
extended their adolescence, and others, after starting a family and reaching their
30’s have entered a second teenage lifestage. The poster girls might be Pink,
Victoria Beckham or Gwen Stefani, however the segment is alive and growing in the
Australian suburbs too.
NETTELS (Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life) are the very busy couples and families,
usually found in the capital cities burdened with a large mortgage, a relatively
expensive lifestyle, and a long working week- often with a long commute as well.
The NETTELS are a fast-growing segment increasing by 7% per year.
It is not just younger Australians that are reinventing themselves. Our research has
identified the Downagers. These are Australians aged over 60 for whom age is just
a number. They comprise 24% of this demographic and feel and act far younger
than their age would suggest. They are the fastest growing segment of the 60+
demographic and they value travel, lifestyle, social connection, and they adapt
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quite easily to new technology. -
RETURN OF THE MULTI-GENERATIONAL HOUSEHOLD
The last decade brought us the stay-at-home twenty-somethings who were labelled
the KIPPERS (Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings) Nearly 1 in 4
(23%) people aged 20-34 continue to live in the parental home. And it’s not just
those in their 20’s. In Australia there are 117,547 people in their early 30’s still living
at home with their parents (8% of Australians aged 30-34).
Generation Y have also been labelled the Boomerang Kids because it is
increasingly likely that once they have moved out of home they will move back
there again. Of Australians aged 25-29 who live in their parental home, more than
half of these (54%) have moved out, and returned again. Most (52%) last less than
2 years before moving back to the parental home with 20% lasting less than 1 year.
16% last more than 4 years before returning home. Indeed many Gen Xers and Yers
are returning to the parental home with their own young children in tow. All of this
has given rise to the Sandwich Generation. This describes those Baby Boomers
sandwiched between the need to care for their dependent children and the
responsibility of caring for their older parents. This sandwich generation arises from
the combined trends of delayed childbirth, the delayed financial independence of
children, and the increasing life expectancy of the older generation. Consequently
we have seen this decade the emergence of the multi-generational household with
the parents housing their adult children (sometimes with their own young children in
tow) along with their own ageing parents. This multi-generational household, while
new in our era, is simply a return to what was the norm a century ago.
“Generation Y are the world’s first digital generation, the world’s first global
generation, and the most entertained and materially endowed generation Australia
has ever seen.” stated Mark McCrindle. “This was the generation that expected to
start their economic life in the manner in which they saw their parents finish their
economic life, and when hit with the financial reality of independent living, many
are reflecting on the good deal they had living with their parents and so they are
boomeranging back home”. -
WEB 3.0
The last decade brought us Web 2.0 defined by social networking (think Facebook
and MySpace), user-generated content (from YouTube to Flickr) and new ways
of communicating (from the blogosphere to Twitter). However while it has been
fascinating, the novelty for many has faded and the next decade will bring demands
for useful applications and usable online tools. Like any new technology the first
wave of fun and entertainment is replaced by a focus on utility and practicality and
this is what the decade ahead will bring.
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com.au -
SHOPPING GETS RESPONSIBLE, SAVING IS BACK
After a decade of aspirational purchasing, and the growth of luxury brands, the
combined effects of the Global Financial Crisis and environmental sustainability
have delivered a slowdown to rampant materialism. With the Gen Yers entering
their parenting years and the Boomers heading towards retirement this decade
will bring a new era of austerity for many. Saving is becoming the new spending
and conspicuous consumption will fade due to the growing pressures of an ageing
population, continued global financial uncertainty, high indebtedness in Australia,
and the rising costs of transport, energy, petrol and housing. -
WORK CHANGES- FROM INCREASING DEMANDS TO CAREER DEVELOPMENT
While the last decade saw the growth of portfolio careers, work-life balance, and
“sea-change” lifestyle jobs, this new decade is bringing back some new stability.
With the ageing population will come an ageing workforce, mass retirements, a
skills shortage, and a succession planning challenge. Over the next decade 40%
of today’s senior leaders will reach retirement age. Already the average age of an
employed person in the education sector is 44, and in the health sector it is 45.
Therefore there will be a premium paid to employees who can gain experience in a
career, climb the ranks within an organisation, and move into leadership positions.
While flexibility, job variety, collaborative leadership models, and work-life balance
will remain part of employment, there will be a return to training, skills development,
longer job tenure and stability. -
AUSTRALIA REDEFINED
Australia today is loved for more than the outback, the iconic beaches, sporting
success and “no worries” attitude. Certainly the old affections run deep however
the 21st Century has brought a new sophistication and a view of our nation as
an innovative, technologically savvy, world-leading cultural hub and lifestyle
destination. The last decade has showed an Australia with a self-assuredness of
our place globally and a move from the old “cultural cringe” to an acceptance of
our traditions, history and interests beyond clichés. Much of this has come through
our diverse and growing cultural mix. Currently 1 in 4 Australians weren’t born
here but of those aged under 30’s it is closer to 1 in 3. Of the population growth in
the decade ahead, only one-third will be through natural increase and two-thirds
through net migration. The decade ahead will continue to redefine the Australian
identity as a sophisticated, urban, hard working, cosmopolitan, culturally diverse
and globally connected nation.