Going to Alpha Centauri: Is it really worth it?

12.06.06.1757

Okay, let’s assume that we one day achieve the means to travel at the speed of light, which is a feat in its own right and just as likely improbable of us to accomplish. Well for the moment let’s forget about that improbability and consider that we did it, we achieved the means of traveling at light speed; yay!

Okay, now what? We desire to colonize, right? Because by the time we probably would have achieved light speed travel, our planet would be having problems (population, ecology, etc.); problems so bad that we would have to put forth the effort to colonize. We could make a massive effort to colonize on Mars, and let’s assume for the moment that we did, but it’s going to take a shit-load of time to make the planet habitable for mass human colonization. We can’t wait that long, even though we already started. No, we need a ready-made planet at our fingertips that we can begin settling on and raping its resources of. Answer: Alpha Centauri!

Ahh, but here’s where it becomes crazy…

Alpha Centauri is 4.39 light years away (although Proxima Centauri is closer, it’s a red dwarf star and doesn’t pose a good prospect for having a stable planet for human colonization). Thus, we can do one of two things. We could send a probe out to Alpha Centauri in search for a habitable planet in its solar system, or we could build a ship to go look ourselves with.

The first option, while less risky, would take more time. We would have to wait for it to get there and then wait some more time for it to search the entire system for a habitable planet, or planets. Then, we would have to wait for the radio transmission to come back to us to let us know either we’ve struck gold or we’ve hit a wall. In any case, it would take about 12-15 years; maybe longer to find out the truth about Alpha Centauri.

The second option, is more risky, but under the assumption that we find a planet, we would already have a first colony ready to set up upon discovery. However, let’s consider that for a moment…
Could you imagine how big of a spacecraft we would have to construct to sustain a crew for four-some years and even then, have the equipment and even more supplies for the time it would take to search for a habitable planet, set up a base on that planet, and finally begin growing crops and what not for future survival? Of course, in the event that we would not find a habitable planet orbiting Alpha Centauri, we would need to supply that crew for the trip back home. Even upon discovering a planet, setting up a preliminary colony, and growing crops to test the survivability of the planet, we would still have to either send a probe back home or send the ship with a skeleton crew back. So, for good measure, we would need a ship capable of sustaining a crew for at least 12-15 years tops (assuming the discovery of a planet to colonize).

The 12-15 year suggestion is a variable (although we would definitely need 9 years for traveling there and back again)… who knows how many years it would take to search the system for a habitable planet. Could be 10 or 15 years… it’s impossible to calculate for sure to sustain the crew.

And yet, assuming we find a planet, what if it’s already inhabited by intelligent beings? We would then need a delegation of representatives able to come to some means of communication with the beings so that we could negotiate the colonizing of our people. The beings might either let us stay on their planet or direct us to another planet in the system. If we were denied colonization though, then it’s likely we would go to war.
Assuming we would go to war, our ship would need to return to Earth, explain the dilemma, and then prepare a fleet of warships and landing craft for mass extermination and annihilation of the species on the other planet. Either we wipe them out or force them to accept our control of their planet (occupation).

[size=150]So… is it really worth it?[/size]

I think that before we begin searching for other inhabitable planets, we need a self sustaining space-craft, or at least one that will last for hundreds of years. Such a craft would need an highly efficient and sustainable source of power and propulsion, and a full ecosystem including human beings (self sustaining colonies of humans, livestock, plants, etc.). It could only receive energy in the form of radiation (and the intensity and energy of that radiation would not be reliable), and from interplanetary, interstellar, and intergallactic debris. This vessel would essentially have to be a city in space, because all amenities of a city would need to be accounted for.
The reason I think such a complex vessel is called for is that it hardly makes sense to send out one ship at a time on a journey that takes nearly half a decade one-way, and to wait for their return, and then send out anothing if they are unssucessful. There needs to be flexibility involved, because the variables and unknowns are magnified with distance and time)
As to whether it is worth it, that depends on the state of the earth. If the earth is dying, such a voyage would be necessary. If the trip is for the sole purpose of exploration and information, it would depend on the resources available on earth, and the expected value of the information to be gained (for instance, finding life might be worth it, while finding another venus might not be.

I’m sorry, I’m sorry, I have to:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sid_Meier% … a_Centauri

One of two 98%'ers.

Let’s say we could go 99.9% the speed of light, since we could do that without running afoul of General Relativity. You have to take time dilation into account in your plans- I don’t think you’d need 4 years worth of food for the flight because less time would pass on the ship than outside of it in the rest of the universe.

Excellent point!

I think sending a probe is our best bet. First of all, it would cost a hell of a lot less. It may take longer but when fuel and food and all the necesities of life are taken into account, it gets fairly expensive. If we end up searching the system and discovering that it is inhabitable, we wasted precious time and money. In the case that we send a probe, we can just abadon it.

I think we should send a supcom, which, upon its arrival, will recreate us from the mass of the planet itself.

That’s a bit beyond our capability, Zeus. So is near-light travel, of course, but it’s probably somewhat more plausible as there are less issues to work out.

What’s a supcom?

I don’t think near light travel is entirley out of our capability. There’s warp drives, worm holes, and we still have yet to harness the incredible power of anti-matter.

Supreme Commander. I’m going off topic.

No, near light speed travel is probably near inevitable, provided we as a species have some time. I think it’s impractical at our current level of technology, but our knowledge grows exponentially. It’s hard to put any sort of timetable out there, but I wouldn’t be shocked if we have craft that attain near light speed capabilitie within a few centuries.

What, no hyperspace believers here?

I prefer the Traveller RPG, where it only takes a week travelling in “jump-space” between systems.

I wonder how the UFO folks do it?

Well, obviously if we reach the Babylon 5 tech level we’ll just use jumpgates. :smiley:

Wouldn’t you have to actually go to the place of the proposed second jumpgate to create the gate to which you’d be jumping?
How would you get there the first time – and for repairs?

I guess the Centauri & Minbari would have to help out.

No, that’s where we’re at NOW. Setting aside physical impossibilities like traveling at the speed of light, by the time we gain the practical ability to colonize other planets, we will have SOLVED those problems. Otherwise, we’ll never get there, because civilization will implode and collapse, and either we or our successor species will start over from scratch.

Actually, getting to the planet is only part of the difficulty. What do we do with it when we find it? The biggest part of the reason why the earth is habitable by humans is due to the presence of life here. Life makes breatheable air, potable water, food, manageable climate, all the basic life-support stuff we take for granted. We could, somewhat precariously and at great expense, live away from the rest of the biosphere for a while, but it would take constant effort and energy to keep ourselves alive, as it does currently with astronauts in space.

Long-term, the only way we can settle another planet is by reproducing, not just ourselves and our civilization, but the entire biosphere of the earth on another world. Our own settlement of it, other than the technicians and biologists responsible for doing the terraforming, would be the last act. The entire process would take years, probably decades.

So don’t think of space colonization as a solution to population pressure and resource shortages on earth. Think of space colonization as a reward for solving those problems other ways. We must learn to live within our limits here. If we do, then the limits will, in time, expand literally to the skies.

12.07.06.1761

I decided against going that far in the original post. Seriously, it would be nuts: What are the odds of finding a planet at Alpha Centauri that has the same levels of breathable air, drinkable water, edible natural foods, and gravity stability comparable to Earth? Even the slightest difference would cause a fundamental shift in the long term evolution of people living on that planet. Maybe after 1,000 years we would see a difference between Terrans and Alpha Centaurians. Of course, there’s also the high chance of discovering new diseases; bacterias and viruses to which our immune systems have absolutely no defense to and we would all die. Colonization would become a grim story.

I would say the probe would have to be the best way to go.

As for problems here on Earth, I was thinking something more serious like “we’ll run out of food in 20 years” or something similarly that grim.

We can’t run out of food unless we destroy the whole biosphere. We can fail to produce enough food to feed everyone, though, and there are at least two ways we probably DO face that within the next 20 years: oil shortages and overpopulation.

The odds of finding a planet we can just immediately colonize are indeed so long we might as well forget about that. I still think that it would be feasible to terraform a planet with about the right mass and distance from its star, though. A longer-term project but considering that it would allow growth beyond the earth’s limits, well worth doing.

12.07.06.1762

Good point. However, can you provide some evidence to support the idea that the planet will run out or have extremely low shortages of oil? I’ve looked and found nothing more than speculation on when the world will be forced to resort to other sources of fuel. The overpopulation I can believe, but oil shortages in 20 years?

How many years would it take to terraform Mars?? Well… the Mars Trilogy seems to make a good case for it. Somewhere around 200 years. Is that plausible, assuming rapid advancements in technology within the next 20 years (the first novel starts in 2026).

Here’s a link that got me started:

lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Here’s a huge thread that I started on a different forum:

forums.philosophyforums.com/thread/6249/

Basically when oil hits $200 a barrel (and it will eventually), bread will cost $10 a loaf, gas $20 a gallon, and aspirations of space travel will disappear. The starvation of billions of people will take front and center.

The only speculation is how soon. There is no doubt that oil production will peak and decline.