Greetings, Everyone

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Greetings!

Having been gone for five days shy of six months, I decided that I would just create a thread to update everyone on what is going on in the Life and Times of PavlovianModel146 rather than have anyone ask me questions in other threads that could cause potential derailment.

Okay, so I am an Administrator at a Message Board unrelated to Philosophy, (Carleas put a non-compete clause in my contract when I first Moderated here, and I’d have to pay $4,750,000 if I were to violate the terms of the contract, so that’s not happening) and I am one of three Administrators with one, “Secret Administrator,” also working the site.

With no disrespect intended towards this site, when you combine the fact that the gambling Forum has three times the active Members and four times the traffic of this site, with fewer Administrators/Moderators, I really have a lot to do there. In addition to that, I also work on Reviews, Articles, am writing an on-going gambling novel (fan fiction) and do quite a bit of behind the scenes stuff.

Combined with a job change in April of last year, there were three days per week that I was simply unable to be on here, at all. However, I’m back at the hotel again, (more money + two days off per week) so I should be able to be on more often.

In terms of my life, not much has changed:

1.) With respect to gambling, I am a low-level Advantage Player and am working on building a bankroll to make gambling at least a part-time steady source of income when I move to Nevada in two years. I’m going to accomplish that by focusing more of my energies on advantage play, maintaining a separate bankroll for that purpose, and finally by devoting more time to the purpose of advantage play than in recent years. I will also devote less money to negative-expectation gambling.

2.) In addition to opportunities I will have on an individual basis, there is also a professional gambler who I will be able to work for directly once I move out to Nevada. While the obvious goal would be to make advantage play my only source of income (i.e. become a professional gambler) it is highly doubtful that will be successful and I will probably have to settle for half of my income via gambling and half via traditional employment.

3.) My wife is in nursing school, presently, and Nevada is going to be an excellent state in which to move with respect to job market, once she gets her RN. In two years, my household income will go from very slightly above average to we’re kicking friggin’ ass, so that’s a positive. We’ll probably go from a household income of just about 40k to a household income of about 105k-120k as soon as we move out there, so that’s fortunate.

4.) Anyway, I’m going to cast all pretenses aside and say that, when I switched jobs, I chose to continue to Administrate there rather than continue to Moderate here. I’m not going to lie to you guys about that. The main reason is because (while I am interested in Philosophy) I have a much greater interest in gambling, am better at gambling, and am better at Gambling Math than I am at Philosophy. I also Moderated Social Sciences here, and other than those occasions when threads would be based in Economics, I wasn’t terribly interested in many of the conversations, though I felt compelled to read every post in my assigned Forums.

In any event, I simply have more free time now than I did before, so I’ll have more time to spend on this website, which I intend to do. That’s mainly because I am back at the hotel. I can’t say what will happen when I move to Nevada in two years, but I certainly won’t be completely gone for six months again because that is obviously inexcusable.

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I’m not that far from Las Vegas, I think you’ll be happy to have left Ohio. Not to worry about leaving, Uccisore is doing a fine job in the sociology section and is liked by all.

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Stuart,

Cool, I was just in Vegas on a six-day vacation for the first time last month. I’m going to be coming around again either this December or next January for another six-day vacation, so I’ll make sure to shoot you a PM when that happens and I’ll buy you dinner if you want to meet up.

I will be happy when I leave Ohio, it sucks. Kansas City, Missouri sucks too, but living out there gave me the false impression that Ohio does not suck as bad as it actually does. I really wanted to move to Nevada this year, but my wife would have to switch schools and everything else, so might as well do it the slow and deliberate way. It’s how I’ve done everything else I’ve ever done and it hasn’t failed me yet.

Uccisore kicks ass, so that comes as no surprise.

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Pav it’s good to hear you’re making money gambling. Stuff like that just warms me up inside.

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Thanks!!!

Not much money, for the time being, but that will change in Nevada.

I mostly vulture Bonuses and Wilds left behind on slot machines, because it is very low-risk, but the flip side is low return. I should have an engagement working for someone in Atlantic City once in a while which will be a fixed amount of money for me with zero risk as I will be compensated a fixed amount and reimbursed expenses. I also chase Progressives, but only ones on multiple Progressive machines that are not long shots. It’s basically just about getting a theoretical return over 100%, but for the time being, I want to do that with very little risk. I’m in the beginning stages of building a bankroll.

There are seven casinos within two hours of me, but those are really spread out in relation to one another, so there just aren’t many opportunities in this area. Fortunately, there’s one casino that is pretty close to me and I can find a few decent little plays there pretty often, and then another one thirty miles from that, though I don’t go there as much…but when I do, there are a few plays.

So, pretty much strictly going after the low-hanging fruit right now, but I’ll improve as time goes on and so will the availability of plays for me to hit in two years. Vegas can be a veritable goldmine if you go after some of the stuff that nobody else really looks for and not too many other people know about, and I have a friend out there who has already taught me some stuff I didn’t know about and he’ll probably teach me more.

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I found a casino in Blackhawk, CO called, “lady luck” and on weekdays they have $2 minimums at the crap tables.

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Craps is not a game that is beatable in the long run, under any circumstances, but $2.00 is a very low minimum for line bets. Do you recall what the Odds multiples were at that casino?

Joker’s Wild in Vegas has $1.00 Craps, not that you’d want to go there, from what I’ve heard…never been there. El Cortez and Fremont are both Downtown and have $3 minimums, at times, so that’s a good deal. El Cortez also has 10x Odds, but I forget the Odds at Fremont.

Railroad Pass has $1.00 Craps, don’t know the Odds, and it’s a nice little place, but it’s kind of out there.

There are some who believe dice setting is effective at Craps to yield a player advantage, I don’t believe that but do it anyway when I play, Pascal’s Wager and all.

Craps is my favorite table game, but due to its negative expectation, will be less than 1% of my total action this year.

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Two other things, but same place:

A casino in New Mexico called The Santa Ana Star pays true (2:1) Odds on a Buy Four or Buy Ten bet, Odds bets behind a line bet also pay true odds, but you can make these buys without making a line bet. The Field Bet also triples 2 and 12 at Santa Ana Star for 0.00% House Edge, and they are the only casino in the world to do that, aside from rare promotions at others.

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No poker?

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I don’t remember the payout odds.

I did go to a place called, “taos mountain casino” in New Mexico. 2 dollar blackjack, and a shit load of slot machines, and that’s it. Tiny little place.

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Hi pavlov! Just an anecdote: if I was absolutely free in the Sartrian sense, I would high tale it there tomorrow. Simply love the place, but for me, at least it’s a combination of heartbreak hotel, and suicide capitol of the world , leaving vegas, and a host of other cliche cellulose impressions which I gathered over the years.

A person in my family whose name I will omit for reasons of privacy and consequent action to sue for libel, is a diamond member of all places, put twenty dollars into a machine and amid all the ringing and attention learned she just won $5,000. The next day she took 2M hoping to live up to a reputation of basic greed, only to have her purse swiped by a staying in vegas type part her with it.  

 On another front, if you may not know strategies of playing,  after unsuccessful attempts,  after last call, to capture someone's imagination:  the thing to do is go over to a table to some table, where interest has piqued inversely  to the diminishing chip returns there,, providing interest is mutual.

 In no time will a silent  agreement be  reached with  certain kinds of  compensation, but beware of merely kibitz, that can not only break hearts, but forever  sustain a  despairing regret, which in turn may cause one to talk loudly in one's sleep: a dangerous thing with sleepless partners interpreting every syllable.

By and large, with all things considered, it is a grand place to live, as long as the double entendre is observed of not chasing either.

 Good luck when the time comes, and I am grateful the Academy has been de constructed, for I'd be tempted to post  this in there.
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Moreno,

Poker is beatable in the long-run if you play a strong enough game, but there’s a ton of Variance, especially if you are a no-limit poker player. I play Limit games sometimes, but the amount of money a player with my skill level can expect to pull from the table after the rake and tipping the dealer doesn’t result in very much per hour and is not worth my time…unless I’m mainly playing for fun.

I’m not very good at No-Limit Hold 'Em cash games, but I am a decent player in low-level tournaments, I’d get steamrolled in the type of tournaments that draw really good players. There’s a ton of Variance in both no limit cash game and tournament play, so I only play tournaments (sporadically) for fun and don’t play No-Limit cash games at all.

Smears,

That’s somewhat common. Tao’s Mountain Casino appears to be an Indian casino and a place that is tailored mostly to locals, that is evidenced by the fact that the lead promotion on their website is for a $25 grocery card giveaway at some place called Smith’s.

The Blackjack is playable, and the double-deck is quite possibly a beatable game, depending on how much you can spread your bets (Table Mins v. Table Max), I can call and ask if you want. They also have a few cute little promotions from Monday-Thursday that don’t add much, but they add something. The suited AJ in Spades, with a Max $50 bet, has an expected value of:

(4/104 * 2/103) * 50 = 0.03734129947 or 3.73 cents per hand in Double Deck and:

(12/312 * 6/311) * 50 = 0.0371011625 or 3.71 cents per hand in Six Deck.

The reason for the slight disparity is because, given you have received the first card needed off of the top of a fresh deck, the second card needed exists in a slightly higher percentage of the remaining cards in the double-deck game. The first part of each equation both breaks down to 1/26 which is 2/52 representing one Ace of Spades and one Jack of Spades in a 52 card deck.

The House Edge of the Double Deck game is 0.17832%, so the expected loss on a $50 bet is:

.0017832 * 50 = 8.916 cents per hand.

If you subtract the 3.734 cents per hand, the new House Edge is:

x * 50 = (8.916 - 3.734)

x = 0.10364 or 0.10364%

Beatable game, and since the first two cards to the player adjudicate, there are no strategy changes. Blackjack would pay 1.5:1 anyway, though, so really this is only worth about 1.87 cents per hand, still good, though, because the rules are good in the first place.

The Tuesday 6-7-8 win and double money is probably a little stronger, I’ll analyze that later.

13

Jack of Spades and Ace of Spades Pays 2:1

Okay, that analysis sucked because I was in a hurry, so I was just slamming it out. Here’s a proper analysis of the value of the promo, again, off the top of a fresh deck:

We’re only going to do double-deck, all other things equal, it’s the only one you should play. It probably has a higher minimum, but we’ll ignore that for now.

(4/104 * 2/103) * 25 = 0.01867064973

Okay, now we have to subtract out the value of a dealer getting dealt any Natural, because the result would then be a push.

((4/104 * 2/103) * (7/102 * 31/101 * 2)) * 25 = 0.00078655231

0.01867064973 - 0.00078655231 = 0.01788409742 or 1.78841 cents per hand.

.0017832 * 50 = 8.916 is still the correct expected loss on a $50 bet, per hand.

8.916 - 1.78841 = 7.12759 is the new expected loss on a $50 bet, per hand, resulting in an effective House Edge of:

x * 50 = 7.12759

x = 0.1425518 or 0.1425518%

That’s a razor-thin edge on a game with an edge so thin that it was already beatable, with card counting and adequate bet spread.

6-7-8 Beats Dealer and Pays 2:1

Okay, there is one reason I immediately know that 6-7-8 is better than 7-7-7 and that reason is effect of removal, for each seven that is removed (which is necessary to win double your bet), obviously, fewer sevens remain in the deck. In two decks, then, off-the-top, five sevens would remain after you had taken three whereas 3 6’s 7’s and 8’s would remain each on the other promotion (which is nine total cards) and instantly tells us that there is a greater proportion of, “Best Cards,” on the 6-7-8 promotion.

The 6,7,8 can also come in any order!

Now, the thing about the 6,7,8 is that we would not always hit that hand. Specifically, we would only hit against a dealer showing 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace…it’s possible, if dealt any combination of 6,7 for thirteen that one might hit against a dealer deuce in this variation, but I’m not sure and the math would take half of forever.

Okay, so let’s do the first thing that has to happen, we need any combination of a six, seven or eight which is first 24, “Best Cards,” and then 16, “Best Cards.”

(24/104 * 16/103) = 0.03584764749

At this point, we need the dealer to receive either a 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace showing to make hitting the correct play, the probability of same (given that we have the 7, 8, or both) is:

(62.5/102) = .6127451

The .5 in 62.5 is a cheap and dirty way of accounting for the fact that one player card MUST be a seven or an eight, but the other could be a six or the seven (if first is an eight) or eight (if first is a seven).

Okay, so now we have our situation in which we are going to hit against the dealer:

(0.03584764749 * .6127451 * 7.5/101) * 50 = 0.08155496415

Okay, so we need to subtract, technically, all dealer 21’s out because that’s a Push…but you know…fuck that because there are a ton of them. I’m only going to subtract out natural 21’s for the time being:

(32/102 * 8/101 * 2) = 0.04969908755

Okay, so that leaves 0.08155496415 - 0.04969908755 = 0.0318558766 or 3.1855877 cents per hand, in value, with a $50 bet. I’m going to go ahead and knock half a cent off of there to account for all other 21’s, just as a rough guess.

3.1855877 - .5 = 2.6855877

The baseline House Edge and Expected Loss:

.0017832 * 50 = 8.916

Remain the same, so:

8.916 - 2.6855877 = 6.2304123 is the new expected loss per hand, resulting in:

x * 50 = 6.2304123

x = 0.124608246

Which is an effective House Edge of 0.124608246% making this the better promotion.

Conclusion

The 6-7-8 promotion is the superior of A-J spades on the deal, 7-7-7 and 6-7-8 (any order) as I suspected.

Ironically, I would imagine that Tao Mountain Casino actually makes more money, on a per player basis, off of the 6-7-8 promotion. The reason is because of player Basic Strategy mistakes, think about this:

The A-J Spades BJ promotion is very straight-forward and does not hinge on any kind of strategy, the player either gets that dealt, or the player does not. However, the 6-7-8 gives the player a choice, the player with two out of three of these cards has the option to hit to try to get the third of the needed cards, but if the dealer has a 2-6 showing (except it might be the right play with a two showing) the player should stand and is making a bad decision to hit, promotion or not.

I suspect that most players, unaware of basic strategy or otherwise enticed by the 2:1 pay, will opt to hit against a dealer showing 2-6 when presented the opportunity, and therefore, the casino makes money off of the fundamentally bad play.

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Why does Uccisore kick ass? Is it because he is good at forming arguments of a persuasive nature?

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Also I wish you the best with your life and I’m glad you will still do a bit at ilp for a while at least.

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Thanks, Dan, how have things been with you?

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I was speaking in terms of his Moderation, but what you said is also true.

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Greetings right back at you.
Good to have you back, P. :mrgreen:
And good luck.
Just remember to occasionally call to mind the words: “Life is what happens to you while you’re making other plans.”