Georgia tried a “fiat accompli” and got in WAY deeper than they thought they would.
Near as I can tell, South Osetta has been de facto, though not de jure, independent of Georgia for over a decade now ( since 1992?). The President of Georgia has been saying that he was going to take it back, and after a while he had to put up or shut up.
He had just negotiated a cease fire with the folks in S.O. and waited till most of the world leaders were at the Olympics. It looks like the plan was to zip in real fast while nobody was looking, run up the flag, and declare victory.
Sadly for him, it hasn’t worked out that way. Russia lost a great deal of face when Kosovo was carved out of Serbia a few months ago. One of their allies, people they had pledged to protect, had their country divided up by the UN ,USA, and EU. This was NOT to Russia’s liking, but they couldn’t do anything about it. They haven’t been too keen of how the Russian citizens of Estonia were treated, or how the monument to the Red Army in Estonia got moved, but they couldn’t do anything about that either. Since the fall of the USSR they have had to swallow a number of humiliations, large and small, at their inability to protect fellow slavs within their sphere of influence.
THIS however they could, and DID do something about.
Georgia thought that their close ties to the U.S. would protect them, but they badly miscalculated. First of all, no matter how much they deny it, they did start this. The U.S. is not going to go to the wall to defend someone who picked a fight with Russia and got in over their head. Secondly, the U.S. is stretched pretty thin right now, between wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and our other commitments. Even if we wanted to do something, we don’t have the troops to do so.
Mostly though, Georgia is simply NOT a vital interest of the USA. We can get along quite well without them. Japan…Saudi Arabia…Germany…these are places where we have vital and important interests that we will have to defend. Most Americans though, when you told them that the Russians invaded Georgia were afraid that Soviet Paratoopers were landing in Atlanta, and you had to explain to them “No the other one”…followed by “Yes, there is more than one.”
Lastly, there is the logistical issue…have you seen a map? It will be a lot easier for the Russians to get all the troops they want in there than it would be for anybody else to get any troops in there to stop them.
So Russia pretty much has a free hand in Georgia. It is unlikely they will push all the way into Georgia itself…they will probably push the Georgians out of S.O., perhaps formally annex it, (though that would majorly annoy the U.N…but then the Russians can just veto any resolution they don’t like and its not like the U.N. ever actually DOES anything). If S.O. is as torn up as some of the news reports say, the Russians may push a little ways into Georgia just to teach them a lesson and give them a good scare. I doubt they will take all of Georgia back…though they could if they really wanted to…but it would be expensive and “Expensive” isn’t what they need, what they need is a win.
Bottom line, this is going to be a Russian win. The Russians need a win, they badly need a win, they are not going to end it on any terms OTHER than a big a Russian win, and they are in a position, both diplomatic and military, to dictate the terms on which this ends.
I strongly suspect Georgia will be getting a new president soon though.
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