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…again… reality doesn’t care what we think it should be.
@Motor_Daddy What changes -in your mind- that makes you think that the 100th flip out of a 99 streak has a 100% chance of it being 99/1, and not 100/0?
Does nature work on probabilities… or on will/wonts?
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Probability is simply a man-made, constructed, thought experiment, that reality cares-not about.
It doesn’t have to. But you agreed that 99-1 is more likely than 100-0. You didn’t need to ask which flip the tails came from. It could have been flip 43, or 87, or 100. The bottom line is that 99 heads and 1 tails is more likely than 100 heads. Just because 99 heads have already landed doesn’t change those odds. You have to be damn lucky to have 99 heads land in a row. You need to be exponentially luckier to have 100 heads land in a row.
So no matter what you observed during the first 99 flips, whatever odds you declared before the flips started, you have to continue believing those exact same percentages?
Are you suggesting that you admit error after 99 heads in a row? Are you admitting that you were wrong from the start, that it isn’t more likely to end up 99-1 than it is to end up 100-0?
I’m asking you what you think.
I’m telling you what I think, that you already calculated from the start that it is more likely to end up 99-1 than it is to end up 100-0. So that last flip is more likely to be tails, and you agreed from the start. If you change your answer after 99 heads then you are admitting error from the start. You are in effect saying, “I was wrong from the start, now that I have seen 99 heads in a row I want to change my answer to 99-1 is equally likely as 100-0.”
So after 99 heads you want to change your answer. Why, getting nervous after seeing 99 heads in a row? Did you calculate a difference from the start if 99 heads landed in a row, or did the last flip landing on heads get exponentially less likely? You did calculate all 100 flips, right?
Yes, you do… but even that last coin-toss is a 50/50 call… otherwise you are claiming that there is a domino-effect of sorts occurring, at the start of the first coin being tossed, in an effectance kind of way…
So if you think that odds don’t change as you learn information about the flip sequence, then what odds do you give for a 50/50 result before you start flipping any coins?
No, the last flip is not 50-50 in the calculations, it is EXPONENTIALLY less likely to have 100 heads in a row compared to 99 heads in a row.
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The sequence is, it’s either heads or tails. 
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A coin ain’t a deck of cards with multiple permutations/odds/results.
What?
Suppose at a horse race the odds are in favor of a horse to win. He is known to lag behind almost the entire race, and then just before the finish line he sprints like a bat out of hell and wins the race.
You sitting in the stands observe him losing almost the entire race, so you lean over to me and say he’s going to lose the race. I bet you $100 dollars he wins when he is only 50’ from the finish line. You take the bet because of your “updated data”, and you end up losing $100, because the horse did what he always does, he sprinted the last 50’ and won the race. You owe me $100 because your updated info did not take into account the entire race, which I did.
Can you answer the question I asked you?
What are the odds for a 50/50 result out of 100 flips? 50 heads, 50 tails. Roughly
I don’t know, I’m not a Bookie.
That’s why I said “roughly”. Give me a ball park. Could be a big ball park. 8% - 50%, for example. Don’t worry too much about being exactly correct. Roughly, what do you think the odds are?
Roughly 1:1
Roughly even odds for it to be 50/50.
So after we flip 99, and see 99 heads in a row, is it still roughly even odds that this sequence of flips ends in a 50/50 split?
Or have the odds for seeing an event split changed based on our observations?
The odds are set from the start. Just because you realize you lost half way through doesn’t change the odds.
You place your bet at the start with the posted odds. The results will be posted at the finish.
So if I asked you after 99 heads in a row, what do you think the chance is it ends evenly split, you’d still say about 50% chance
Interesting.
For me, I answer the question differently after I see 99 of the flips.
Yes, I get that that is what is being purported/investigated here.
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The 50/50 option doesn’t care about exponentiality though, so… so are you saying that there is no randomness, but an exponentially-ordered process exerting its will on outcomes?
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I’ll find a Bookie and ask them…
Or actually, the internet would know… I’ll check.