It’s Too Big To Fail. Part B

This is just an update on the last post concerning the subject “Too Big To Fail”, which can be found at:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=166187

I met with an x-business partner / friend, Jim, and an acquaintance, Will, to discuss the subject matter.

They suggested that I study the “think tank’s” matter on the subject. I concluded that there was not much on the subject and that economics in general was a primitive subject matter primarily driven by ideology with little historical reference and virtually no analytic basis or modeling, at least as relates to this subject.

From the limited historical information available on these “think tank” sites I did conclude that most corporate breakups did not result in a cost savings to the public, however they did generally appear to provide more stability to the surviving entities. Much of this data comes from the Wall Street Journal article found in a Brooking Institute search entitled: “If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Break It Up” by Robert W. Crandall.

This means that breaking up very large corporations is problematic under the current legal structure, which places a premium on the net cost to the consumer.

Our group decided that the best place to break up these large troubled organizations was when they came to the government asking for “bail outs”. Here there was leverage and the breakups would not require dealing with the court system.

While, initially, there were no other people suggesting that we break up corporations, which posed a systemic risk, it now appears that a number of other people are starting to call for a break up of these companies and new rules for restraining the growth of these large companies.

Mike Lux, in the Huffington Post on March 12, 2009 writes: “I also agree with David Sirota that if these companies are too big to fail, then they are too big to exist: a proposition also agreed to by the populists and progressives of the late 1800s/early 1900s…Progressives of all eras have understood that corporations that grow too enormous threaten our economy and our democracy, and should be [b]roken up into smaller entities that can’t do so much damage when they are mismanaged”

Mary Anastasia O’Grady’s interview with Nobel Prize winning economist Gary Becker’s article in the Wall Street Journal March 21:

online.wsj.com/article/SB1237598 … #printMode

includes the best partial solution that I have found, since I have started looking into this problem.

After a few paragraphs of defending the historical importance of markets, and how we got to the point of where we are now, he writes:

“However that issue is resolved in the short run, there will remain the problem of institutions growing so big that a collapse risks taking down the whole system. To deal with the too big to fail problem in the long run, Mr Becker suggests increasing capital requirements for the financial institutions, as the size of the institution increases, “so they can’t have so much leverage.” This he says, “will discourage banks from getting too big” and “that’s fine. That’s what we want to do.”

The reason that I say this is a partial solution is that it apparently only addresses the banks. Further there are no specifics about the capital requirements.

One somewhat satisfying fact is that Citi group and AIG have in fact been breaking themselves up. Citi group has spun off Smith Barney to Morgan Stanley and it has stated that it wants to break itself up into a “good bank” and a “bad bank” and AIG’s CEO Liddy has been working at ways to spin off viable assets to gain cash. The problem of course is that the remaining entities are still too large and it is likely that an unbiased third party would break these companies up in such a way that there would not be a preferred offspring.

Notable Quotes:

Bernanke said to Paulson on September 17, after the New York Federal Reserve board authorized an $85 billion Loan on September 16 in return for about an 80% share of the company.

“We can’t keep doing this, both because we at the Fed don’t have the necessary resources and for reasons of democratic legitimacy, it’s important that the Congress come in and take control of the situation.”

Apparently Bernanke thought it might be appropriate to save our republic. Maybe a hero - who knows?

Alan Greenspan argues that the very existence of antitrust laws discourages businessmen from some activities that might be socially useful out of fear that their business actions will be determined illegal and dismantled by government. In his essay entitled Antitrust, he says:

“No one will ever know what new products, processes, machines, and cost-saving mergers failed to come into existence, killed by the Sherman Act before they were born. No one can ever compute the price that all of us have paid for that Act which, by inducing less effective use of capital, has kept our standard of living lower than would otherwise have been possible.”

It is amazing to me that someone, so critical to the health of our economic system, should know so little about the mentality of the chief executive officers of our business community.

A final comment:
Based on my initial reading it is apparent to me that breaking up very large corporations will incur a cost. These large corporations enjoy an economy of scale and historically (despite the fact that they were generally ordered to divest in order to make a more competitive market) the net result of breaking them up was a net increase in cost to the consumer.

What needs to be determined is: what is that cost? However, the cost of a broken economy is virtually incalculable.

AIG will be broken up, and the unit that has caused all the trouble will be destroyed. It will simply cease to exist. Smaller companies will not taken that unit’s place, because the business it engaged in will be regulated to death.

Hi Faust,

Thanks for your response.

There is no question that AIG and Joseph Cassano in particular badly mismanaged his assets. (That’s actually an understatement). Investing 441 billion dollars in CDOs is something even the etrade toddler wouldn’t do. The number is so bad that it makes one think that the 180 billion the US taxpayers have paid so far is just a pittance.

My real interest lies in finding a way to stop corporations from becoming a threat to not just to the US economy but also to the world economy.

Unfortunately, if we wait until a corporation comes begging to congress the damage is already done. Banning any corporation from becoming large appears to deprive consumers from a low cost option, and it currently would be a violation of US law.

Leaving these things to the corporations themselves, or to governmental regulation, in general, has shown itself to be a flawed policy.

Dr Becker’s construct of requiring certain capital requirements based on size is a good idea, but has the draw backs of not being specific (how much?, What is the multiplier based on?, specifically, what does he mean by capital - assets or shareholder equity? Is it simply that he wants to maintain certain debt to equity ratios?) and currently it only applies to certain financial institutions.

Assuming that Dr. Becker’s capital requirement could actually be ascertained, what’s to stop it from becoming a political social engineering tool? Could it or should it be a constitutional amendment?

Obviously, I don’t know the answer.

But I really do want to do something about this, and it is pleasantly suprising that more people are interested in breaking up these very large corporations. I noticed in an AP article that Senator Dodd suggested giving the FDIC “the authority to take over and resolve big institutions if there colapse would threaten the financial system.” While it is clear that he does not understand the implications of his comment, at least there is a legislative interest in the subject matter.

I think Greenspan’s advice will be largely ignored - at least in the field of finance. That advice is more pertinent to manufacturing and tech. It will be ignored because economists, through their new mouthpiece, the President, have seen that additions to GNP that are merely paper are not particularly useful. One of Obama’s innovations will be to actually heed economists - he is the new Reagan in that way. This will probably not be a permanent change - at least it will be eventually distorted beyond recognition, the way Reaganomics was.

There will remain pressure to limit any such government action - the voters will grow weary of it.

Yes, the voters still count, when they want to.