How many of you read Philip Longman’s article in the April edition of Fortune magazine concerning world population trends and the implications for the values of modern civilization?
He cites the example of pagan Rome’s decline in fertility during the 3rd century while Christians flourished.
Basically, recent predictions are that the current 6 billion world population will peak at around 9 billion in the next 50 to 100 years and then begin to decline. This flies in the face of the dire “population-bomb” predictions of global over-population. It should be a reason for rejoicing but it carries serious implications to world values.
Two reasons are cited for the trend. First, the rapid ageing of world population in which most developing countries will grow old before they grow rich with dire consequences for the world economy as the work force begins to shrink as early as 2020. But more interestingly for philosophic implications, there is a broad social trend, across all nations rich and poor of all forms of governments, that is absolutely undeniable: As more and more of the world population moves from rural to urban areas, children offer little or no economic benefit to their parents, and as women gain economic opportunity and reproductive control, people are producing fewer and fewer offspring. Fertility rates are already one-half of what they were in 1972 and the drop in fertility has spread to every corner of the globe
Our current global society of nations that are market-driven with citizens who are highly bent toward individualism, could be in for a dramatic shift.
Industrialized nations will not sustain their populations. The economics of family life make the trend almost inevitable. It costs over $200,000 to raise a child to age 18 in the U.S., not including the cost of college. While pension funds and social security depend heavily upon the replenishment of human capital, it is ironic that the economic benefits go largely to those who avoid the burden of raising a family. Children become costly impediments to economic success.
Developing nations are ageing even faster. Mexico at five times the U.S. rate. Iran will have more seniors than children by 2030. In India, the fertility rate has dropped 20% and by 2030 Indian population will be in decline across all provinces north and south. 30% of China’s population will be seniors by 2050.
Declining fertility leaves more resources to be enjoyed by adults. But soon enough, that demographic dividend has to be repaid. It is far more expensive to care for seniors than for children, particularly in health care. Export driven economies like Japan, which flourished with population growth in North American and Europe, will face stark contrast as rich countries will be deeply encumbered by the cost of health care, pension plans and social security.
So, the question that will impact the future of world values and the future of philosophy is this: Who will go forth and multiply? Where will the children come from? It will likely be from those people who are “disconnected” from the modern world, who either “don’t get the rules of economic success in the modern world” or who feel they have a higher purpose for having children than economic benefit. That higher purpose might be some form of “God” or it might be some totalitarian state. It may be some new Messiah. Either way, the new global culture could be bent far more toward fundamentalism and far more anti-market than today. It could be another dark ages.
Another interesting question is what sort of philosophy, what sort of world view is most consistent with the new reality of the coming shift in global demographics? Who will ring truest and most relevant to mankind’s new condition?