usatoday.com/story/tech/2016 … /88640044/
See… I don’t know how to take these apps. The science behind them are bizarre… in a traditional sense, how do I know for certain it isn’t one guy voting on his phone, his wife and kids phone, on his computer, etc as a hard enthusiast… traditional polling more or less denies this.
On the other hard, it obviously targets enthusiasts, those most ardently desiring to vote.
We’ve seen how skewed polls since the Brexit can be. I live on the Ohio and Pennsylvania border of West Virginia, both states magically just flipped blue without apparent reason just after the convention, despite local news polls remaining strongly anti-hillary, and I can’t find any locals interested in her who aren’t elderly… yet I’m supposed to be swimming in a sea of blue here… it is obvious the polling is missing a hugh segment of the population. I haven’t been polled since I was a kid, and most people I know on this topic say never. Nobody targets this demographic.
Online poll apps have a real chance of predicting who has the most enthusiasm, but I don’t know if this shows statistically sound data. Phone calling likewise is becoming increasingly suspect.
Are we going to develop a hybrid system of polling businesses running apps like this while polling, try to make heads of the other. Trump and Sanders both showed the capacity to defy polls earlier in the party elections, defying expectations. Likewise, we’ve seen manipulation of the polls to make it look like Hillary was winning, with a massive media blitz on her part… this is likely less to show accurately Hillary support, but rather the portion of the Republican party demoralized… they can bounce back. I think this is as good as Hillary can drum up support, so we know the rough portion of the population that fluctuates for her as well in normal polling. How do we calculate those who are really enthusiastic about her though? She has very poor showings in these sorts of internet polls.
Think about this well past this election too. Next election cycle circumstance can be reversed… what do you think the future of polling will be, how will they work?