North Korea Provokes U.S. … apacific//

False alarm or could this mean yet another war? … act-us,35/

If it comes to it, I’ll bet you dollars-to-doughnuts that China blinks. As long as there isn’t a stupid (media?) build-up where China is forced to commit to save face. N. Korea is to China what Mexico is to the US. A big fat immigration problem but, Monroe-Doctrine style-shit would mean that if somebody else where to mess with it, a response would be necessary. Unless, of course, people didn’t really mention it. As long as they don’t point it out, if somebody else wants to clean up the problem, err, why not let them? If it gets pointed out. Errr. Ain’t gonna end well.

China’s development right now is on par with any of the great powers on the eve of the Great War. At the end of the long 19th Century, there was plenty of awkward colony-shifting and wars evaded because both sides really didn’t want it to come to blows so they respected each others’ silly nationalism. Give her the respect she so openly craves and a pittance like N. Korea can fall by the wayside.

Think about it this way. Pretend that Nicaragua and Mexico got stuck in a time warp during the '70s. They unfreeze now and everything is the same as it was during the ‘70s, except Nicaragua and Guatemala have traded places and for various reasons, Nicaragua would absolutely dominate in a war between the two countries. And, to complete the example, instead of engaging in nasty rhetoric, the leaders of the USSR and USA spend all their free-time sucking each others’ dicks.

If that happened, I think there would be a lot of unusual coalitions in the US. On the right, there are people who want a “final solution” to the Mexican problem and this presents just such a solution! On the left there are peaceniks and outright Communist supporters. So, the occupation on the boarder is either an acceptable loss or a step forward in the socialist world revolution! But the opposition is just as confused. You’ve got plenty of right-wing nationalists and Cold-Warriors who don’t want that sort of concession within the American sphere of influence. On the left, well, first off let’s not pretend that nationalism has no role in leftist politics in America, but you’ve also got things like the Nicaraguan record on human rights and it being pretty terrible. School of the Americas-type shit. Plus, in the long run it will cost us more having a hostile neighbor (the left being the only fiscally sensible wing of American politics). You get a frankenstein’s monster. Which one wins? Eh, don’t provoke 'em and Homo economicus reigns. H. economicus works very well as a predictive model for humans under non-stressful conditions. So don’t stress 'em out, and hope reason prevails.

I don’t know think Xunzian’s analogy is an appropriate one that exemplifies how the Chinese will handle the latest North Korean assault (assuming one believes that it was North Korea’s fault, of course). In some sense, Xunzian is correct about the Chinese annoyance having to deal with North Korean refugee problem. However, this problem seems relatively marginally compared to other issues that have to deal with human immigration ones. Besides, the Chinese easily just deport the North Koreans that escape through their borders without much questions asked. Rest of the user’s post, I don’t think I can cover without taking over this thread. So, I’m digressing a bit now, onto the original post.

False alarm or war? Neither. Just strategic politics between the North and the South.

On NPR, The World had a nice, short segment on the relationship between North Korea’s history of belligerence and South Korea’s peaceful concessions. The link is here:

North Koreans are the ones that want war. They have been wanting it since the armistice was signed. However, the influence from the major players such as Russia (Korean War) and the Chinese (since the fall of the USSR) has made the North Korean government sit down or lose them. At this point, the Chinese influence in North Korea is all, but weak. To have any serious scholar of that region to think the Chinese have a great hand in North Korea’s foreign policy would be silly, the North Koreans are truly belligerent. Mitchell Lerner’s USS Pueblo has a nice, concise chapter summary of the DPRK’s falling out with the Soviets and gradually, the Chinese.

But no one else wants war in the region. As Xunzian pointed out, China’s development is a major factor; of course, there are other reasons as well such as regional trade and stability. Though, of course, I find the analysis of this latest incident from the West’s viewpoint to be rather amusing. Within the proper context, one can understand this as a regular routine from the North. While outside of that, there seems to be some imminent threat. I say this in consideration of mainstream society.

One can easily exemplify this with Lee Myung-bak’s latest move to cut trade with the DPRK. However, the news media falls short to inform that the Kaesong economic distract area is still active. In addition, there are still communication links between the DPRK and South Korea through secured lines that discuss about various issues regarding things like Kaesong.

In the end, DPRK is putting a show and denying their involvement (assuming the acceptance of the international report). They are reasserting themselves in the region and making some kind of nationalistic show whether it be for domestic propaganda or some other odd reason (which would not be surprising). For South Korea, there will be aggressive responses, but there will never be a war.

I would like to add something else that came to mind while reading the original poster’s title: North Korea provokes U.S. I’ve noticed that the major news media outlet does cover this latest show of DPRK and South Korean escalating tensions. However, this issue has been used more often to discuss the Sino-American relationship even more. There seems to be some morphological viewpoint between the four countries and their proxies. However, the reality is more complicated, but I thought to share that.