On May 5th about 45% of the British population will vote. That’s about 60% of the voting population.
In the last election Blair’s labour party won 413 seats, Hague’s Conservatives won 166 and Kennedy’s Liberal Democrats 52. There were also 30 or so indepedent and fringe party MPs. The government majority stood at 166.
A few little shifts have taken place, Labour now hold 408 seats having lost 3 members (one of which, George Galloway, stands for the socialist alliance ‘r.e.s.p.e.c.t’ party) mainly due to the Iraq war, the Tories have 160 seats having lost some members also. The Liberal Democrats have won single seats in by-elections from both Labour and the Conervatives resulting in them now having 54 seats. The government majority at the dissolution prior to the election stands at 161.
So what will happen? The proportional vote in the last election was not reflected in the results. Labour won 10.7 million votes, the Tories 8.4 million and the Liberal Democrats 4.8 million. This year, with so many constituencies up for grabs I think we’ll see a similar spread of the vote but a fair few seats will change hands. The Labour party are divided over various polocy issues and the war, the Tories are opportunists with no consistent platform and seem to be running out of steam, the Lib Dems are plucky but unlikely.
I predict that the Liberals will gain 25-40 seats, mainly from Labour. I think most of the independents/fringe party candidates will be returned, as well as a few new ones, again in Labour constituencies. So the results would be roughly
This would leave Labour with a majority of just 115 seats, and given they’ve had problems with up to 100 backbenchers voting against them on various legislation that could lead to some tight races in the next Parliament
I want Church Hill back in office, even though Hitler coulda wupped his ass in a fist fight.
No man has ever sucked a cigar faster than that fat fucker did. That, my friends, is leadership. The only thing left to do once democracy has reared its ugly head.
England doesn’t need its own parliament - we just need to recolonise the US, who are blatantly incapable of taking democracy seriously or coming up with good leaders. That’s not to say there aren’t good leaders in the US - they are just never put forward by either of the two main parties.
Rule of politics #32 - People will only want an obese leader in a time when they want a relaxing father figure, such as a wartime
Look how fast we voted him out after we’d won the war (with a little help from those just southof Canada soon to be known as ‘Brittons’)
What’s the man in the street’s view of dear Mr. Blair these days…? I’ve been out of the country for quite a while… Has the war in İraq damaged his cred seriously, or has the rascal bounced back…?
He’s doing well enough - the Iraq war was a major blip but since there’s no real opposition leader capable of replacing Blair I think he’s managed to pretty much get away with it
He’s got the advantage of having already said that he’ll leave after his next term and hand things over to Gordon Brown, who is immensely popular. Therefore people are effectively voting for Gordon Brown when they vote for Blair in this election.
Well, he has been voted the sexiest man in politics, the most earnest man in politics, the most trustworthy cabinet politician and in the last poll I read he was about 15% ahead of Blair, who will probably win the next election.
I don’t see Michael Howard or Oliver Letwin or even Charlie Kennedy winning these polls.
