The Collapse of Shared Reality in Policy

Information overload with no shared agreement on what’s real.” * The Point: In government, if there is no shared agreement on the facts of immigration (the numbers, the economic impact, the legal status), the “nervous system” of the country stays in a state of high friction.

• The Discussion: When uncertainty is high, the public gets narrower. They stop looking for complex policy solutions and start looking for “Belonging over nuance.” Immigration stops being a logistical challenge to solve and starts being a “charged” symbol of identity. You aren’t arguing about a policy; you’re arguing about who “belongs.”

Does our obsession with reacting to the ‘crisis of the day’ actually make us less safe in the long run?

At what point does the ‘compression’ of constant information turn our natural empathy into a survival instinct that excludes others?

If a government is rewarded for ‘quick reactions’ by the 24-hour news cycle, is it even possible for them to implement a 20-year plan for something like immigration?

In a world that chooses speed over accuracy, the first thing we lose isn’t the border—it’s the capacity to think beyond the next ten seconds.

If we don’t find a way to let the system discharge and the information settle, we aren’t actually living in reality—we’re just trapped in the reaction to it.

can we afford to trade our temporal depth for the safety of a ‘feed’ that never ends, or have we already lost the ability to tell the difference?

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I agree that information overload fractures our shared reality, turning debates such as those surrounding immigration into tribal proxies rather than pragmatic solutions. Your point about the nervous system being in a state of high-friction stasis is valid, and without basic facts on inflows, costs or statuses, political policy remains mere performative symbolism. Governments cannot function as rational actors when the public prioritises “us vs. them” belonging signals over data-driven logistics.

Right. I see that “us vs them” as a way to distract from more insidious acts. I always wonder what it will take for people to wake the fuck up… it took psychedelics for me… and a bunch of spiritual seeking that is still very active. I’ve come to understand though that friction is were wisdom tends to emerge from. I’ve had a lot of experience fucking up. I occasionally still make bad decisions as I am human and not without flaws.. but wisdom to me is earned that way. Some people like my wife have this uncanny ability to watch and learn… I’m more of a doer and learn in hindsight kind of retard lol

Also I apologize in advance for my simpleton expressions… I’ve got the equivalent of a 9th grade education so big words and extravagant talking points are not a strong suit. I get the AI to rewrite a lot of what I say so it’s more palatable to the ear of someone with a “real” education.

@Vince
@Bob

Solutions to all the world’s problems?

What are the proposed solutions of the great liberal minds on this forum?

Now this I have to see.

:clown_face: :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

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It has completely fucked us up, Bob.

:flushed_face:

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@Vince This is well put. The phrase I reach for is “epistemic commons”: a society needs some shared inputs (trusted measures, basic institutions, agreed counting rules) or else politics turns into pure identity competition.

I think your “crisis of the day” framing is basically correct: high-frequency outrage is a terrible operating system for long-horizon policy. It rewards signaling, not calibration.

Two (imperfect) ways out that don’t require utopian citizens:

  • Institutionalize slowness: independent statistical agencies, nonpartisan forecasting offices, multi-year budgeting, deliberative panels, etc. (build procedures where “wait for the data” is normal).

  • Lower the temperature of identity stakes: if people feel existentially threatened, facts won’t land. Material security + credible enforcement (so neither “open borders” nor “panic invasion”) can make the conversation less symbolic.

Question for you: what do you think is the minimum “shared reality” you’d want to rebuild first — shared metrics (how many crossings, how many visas, etc.), shared values (what we owe strangers), or shared procedures (how disputes get settled)?

Whats the horizon on this chart I wonder?

Long term, that is.:face_with_monocle:

Honestly we have to first figure out why we have differences and understand what that means. Like I was saying before. Humans have to see the humanity in each other if we are going to make productive decisions on policy. Something I’ve realized about wisdom is that it’s not instant.. shit takes time before it manifests. So we’d all as humans would have to first agree that peace and tranquility is a shared value. I was adding some shit but figured you guys would rather read a more structured less knuckle dragger response so here it is. Hopefully these AI programs don’t take us out before we can figure out how to not wipe ourselves out lol -

"I think I’d have to choose Shared Values as the starting point. Here’s why: Metrics and procedures are tools, but values are the ‘operating system’ that tells us how to use those tools.

If we don’t first agree that the humanity of the ‘other’ is non-negotiable, we’ll just use shared metrics as ammunition. To me, the ‘minimum shared reality’ isn’t a spreadsheet; it’s the agreement that peace and tranquility are more valuable than winning the argument.

You mentioned ‘institutionalizing slowness’—I think that’s actually the practical application of my point about wisdom. Slowness is a value. It’s an admission that we aren’t smart enough to solve life-and-death problems in a 24-hour outrage cycle. We need to agree that ‘taking time’ is a virtue before we can build the institutions that enforce it." - my AI rewrite.

The grand solution is something we have to work towards, rather than something that can simply ‘take over’. The Declaration of Human Rights was a good solution, but it was created at a time when the world was under the delusion that unconstrained power could provide the means to implement a rules-based order.

The pursuit of unbridled power has brought us every war, conflict and social disorder, be it capitalism, communism, Christianity or Islam. It goes beyond competition; it is practically an attempt to achieve the goal of the One Ring: “One ring to rule them all, and in the darkness bind them!” No matter how much good it intends, it remains a dark power.

Power without prudence always has undesirable consequences. Power without sensibility, diligence or compassion will always destroy. The spirit of cooperation recognises our common unity as inhabitants of this planet. It seeks truth from various perspectives, sees beauty in cultural diversity and goodness as a balm for healing all ills.

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Fuck’n A Bob. I agree

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That sounds as though it could be pertinent!

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@Vince I basically agree that shared values come first in the sense that, if you don’t have a minimum commitment to the other person’s humanity, “shared facts” just become ammo.

@futureone On the chart horizon: good question, but it depends on what that image is (source + time axis). A lot of the charts that get passed around are 5–10 year windows, which can look dramatic but miss longer cycles.

My instinct is: use both short-term metrics (what’s happening this quarter?) and long-run indicators (demographics, productivity, housing, debt service, climate, institutional trust). Otherwise we’ll keep “optimizing the dashboard” while the structure rots.

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Not sure what it is you are trying to say. The chart spans 400 years. It almost seems as if you aren’t able to read it. Are you perhaps on an outdated browser where the images aren’t loading?

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@Bob

It’s interesting you use a Tolkien reference for the ring of power because that’s exactly what I see in political liberalism with its intended goal of unified globalism. It looks seducing to the casual observer yet comprises of many disasterous or even dangerous problems.

:clown_face:

@Bob

I know we have our differences and many here hate my interpretations on a great deal of many things but nonetheless I too prefer cooperation over ruthless competition.

The disagreement between me and you liberals is where a lot of your idealisms I find to be very naive or revolving around unrealistic expectations. Therein lies the majority of our disagreements. Well, that and my criticisms of democracy.

Despite what many think of me here I too want to see a better world for all of humanity.

I just disagree with you on how to get there.

:clown_face:

I don’t think you do disagree but I can understand why you think that. Community is important. The goal of a community is to bring shared values and cooperation among the participants…

What is relational between community and communism?

Common Ownership

Shared Goods and Resources

Cooperation over Competition

Social Equality

Different types of community exist, just as different types of communism do. To appreciate the meaning and value of communism does not automatically make one a Communist. One can be an intelligent conservative and still support genuinely communist values.

That being said… communism on paper looks good. Communism in practice is a different situation. In a smaller setting it’s fine hence community… at scale when an entire nation is under a communist structure it fails. Why?

I’ll tell you I don’t think we are in a good spot with democracy either. Not the way we could be and honesty I believe it would require a blending in my opinion. A little of this style of government and a little of that and so on… like making a soup or stew or some shit. My wife when she makes food she always says she’s made it with love as the secret ingredient… to me that would ring true for a government to function for most with the hopes of it working for all… I might be saying some ignorant shit but I’m not claiming to be the smartest or claiming to be without ignorance… I try to avoid it as best I can…. I’m human and it’s sort of the copilot lol

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Also…. I’m sorry for being a dick …. I was homeless before and I know it sucks… when I was young my mom would take us around in Austin and pick up homeless to bring to our house to feed them and hangout. You’re right… it’s treated like someone else’s problem when it’s all of our problems. I do my best when I can now as an adult to help when I can because I know there is still a chance everyday that it could have still been me and I’d want to know or at least believe someone actually gave a shit.

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@futureone Fair point — I didn’t mean to imply it was a short window, and I wasn’t trying to be snarky. When I replied earlier I hadn’t actually seen the axis/source clearly (image-loading can be flaky).

If it’s a 400-year chart, then my point becomes: we should be careful about reading a single curve as destiny without knowing (1) what it’s measuring, (2) how it’s constructed, and (3) whether it’s been updated with new data. Plenty of “400-year” collapse charts floating around are composites with debatable assumptions.

If you can name the chart/source (or what variables it claims to plot), I’m happy to engage it on the merits.

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Well… I guess I was also incorrect

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Unfortunately, I only have a long answer.

The problem with democracy as we understand it is that we are still ruled by people who believe that power is the solution. This has undermined the democratic process, as those in power believe that they should rule. Disunity is spread instead, and social media has been an effective means of doing so. However, in apocalyptic visions, power is often called upon to achieve what frustrated people believe is not possible in any other way.

Such visions have long emerged during eras of societal upheaval, war, persecution and disaster, offering explanations for chaos and promises of renewal. One of the earliest examples comes from ancient Persia, dating back to around 1500 BCE. In this vision, a saviour named Saoshyant leads the battle between good and evil, resurrects the dead for judgment, and purifies the world. This arose amid invasions and dualistic struggles between order (Ahura Mazda) and chaos (Angra Mainyu).

The Book of Revelation draws on the works of canonical Hebrew prophets such as Daniel, Ezekiel, Zechariah, Isaiah, and the Psalms, with over half of its references coming from these sources — Daniel is the most prominent source for references to beasts, kingdoms, and end-time judgement. Rather than quoting directly, it weaves in imagery such as heavenly thrones, seals, and cosmic battles that are familiar from these works.

Written amid the Roman persecution of early Christians, likely during the reign of Emperor Domitian or in reference to the era of Nero, this New Testament text depicts the Four Horsemen, the opening of the seals unleashing catastrophes, the Battle of Armageddon, and the final judgement. As believers faced imperial oppression and political turmoil, it spread widely, with the beasts and dragons being interpreted as Rome’s emperors.

In Norse mythology, Ragnarök foretells the Fimbulwinter, three years of extreme cold, followed by a moral collapse, fratricide, floods, earthquakes and the battle between the gods and monsters such as Fenrir and Jormungandr. Composed during the instability of the Viking Age, it reflected fears of endless winters and social breakdown in Scandinavia.

As the first millennium came to a close, medieval Europe was gripped by anxiety over Christ’s imminent return, fuelled by famines, Viking raids and omens such as blood-red moons or burning torches. Chroniclers linked natural disasters to the end times, prompting pilgrimages and church building, despite debates about the scale of the panic.

The 14th-century plague, which killed up to a third of Europe’s population, fuelled apocalyptic fervour, with the horsemen of the Apocalypse being interpreted as symbols of war, famine, plague and death. Earthquakes, comets and floods were seen as divine signs, leading to mass piety, flagellant movements and accusations of sin or poisoning.

Today, I hear people claiming that ‘only a war’ will put things right. However, this would again involve the use of unbridled power to solve our problems, much like the portrayal of the formation of the Federation of Planets in Star Trek, which was prompted by the Vulcans’ advanced technology.

Historians such as Stéphane Courtois and Stephen Kotkin estimate that communist regimes under Stalin, Mao and others caused 65–100 million deaths through executions, famines, labour camps and purges. Anti-communist efforts in Cold War proxy wars — Korea (2–4 million dead), Vietnam (2–4 million) and Afghanistan (1–2 million) — added millions more, often via US-backed interventions.

Critics such as Francis Fukuyama argue that the term ‘War on Terror’ mislabels a tactic as an enemy, thereby justifying endless interventions while ignoring root causes such as resentment arising from invasions. The term echoed Cold War binaries and fuelled over 900,000 deaths in post-9/11 wars, according to the Costs of War project at Brown University, with media hype amplifying fears that were disproportionate to the actual threats.

However, humanity has also had its visionaries of peace. Taoism and Buddhism, for example, have offered profound visions of peace, harmony and non-violence. Emerging amid ancient chaos, these ideals have influenced cooperation across Asia. Contemporary with Buddhism, Jainism elevates ahimsa to the highest virtue. During the Vedic era, Mahavira (6th century BCE) advocated extreme non-violence towards all life. Confucianism emphasises ren (benevolence) and harmonious relationships, as set out in the Analects, promoting social cooperation over conflict in feudal China. Mohism, founded by Mozi in the 5th century BCE, uniquely championed universal love and impartiality against war and elitist conquests.

Jewish prophets such as Isaiah envisioned swords being turned into ploughshares amid threats from the Assyrians and Babylonians. Early Christians practised non-violence under Roman rule before Constantine’s militarisation. Other examples include Jain ahimsa; the Quaker peace testimony during colonial wars; Tolstoy’s Christian anarchism against tsarism; and Gandhi’s satyagraha against British imperialism. All of these promoted cooperation over violence.

However, power structures often label pacifists as naïve or subversive. Gandhi was imprisoned, MLK was under FBI surveillance, and conscientious objectors were jailed or executed during the First and Second World Wars. Nevertheless, echoes persist in the form of the League of Nations’ ideals after the First World War, the anti-war movements of the 1960s that curbed the Vietnam War, and modern peace studies that influence UN resolutions. Cooperation thrives amid diversity, in places such as cooperatives and community solutions.

It is unconstrained power that threatens us, because our language is replete with associations with greatness, strength, and vigour, evoking loud and superficially compelling arguments. However, whenever something truly great arose that affected the population, it was thoughtful, full of erudition, wisdom, and caution. Wisdom and knowledge are judiciously applied; it is sagacious, prudent, sensible and discreet.

Wisdom incisively contrasts the bombast of raw power with quiet profundity, a tension woven through history and philosophy. Jesus symbolises that executed sagacity, challenging temple authorities and Roman order not through force, but parables and compassion, much like the pacifist visions above.

Language glorifies ‘strength’ and ‘greatness’ through conquest, from Homeric heroes and imperial eagles to modern ‘strongmen’. Yet these evoke fleeting triumphs that mask fragility, and empires crumble when belief falters since power rests on constructed consent. True greatness, however, manifests itself more prudently. Consider Socrates’ examined life amid the excesses of Athenian democracy, Laozi’s yielding water that wears down stone, and Gandhi’s satyagraha that eroded British rule. Such greatness demands erudition and the discernment to know when to speak, act or withdraw. It is often branded seditious, as with Jesus’s “Render unto Caesar” which upended tribute systems.

Prophets and sages repeatedly fall victim to power. Hypatia was lynched for her Neoplatonic wisdom in Christian Alexandria, al-Hallaj was beheaded for his Sufi mysticism in Baghdad, and MLK was surveilled and slain for linking poverty to militarism. Each of these examples exposes the construct and the fact that rulers fear not armies, but minds that can dissolve the myths that sustain their control. But wisdom endures in the form of underground movements, monastic traditions, Quaker meetings and cooperatives, which nurture discretion until power overreaches and prompts rediscovery. The key lies in recognising this cycle without despairing and applying knowledge to build resilient alternatives amid the noise.

In suttas such as the Dhammapada and the Kosambiya Sutta, the Buddha attributes strife to the restless mind: ‘Hatred is never appeased by hatred… by non-hatred alone is hatred appeased’ (Dhammapada 5). He taught that power’s bombast stems from clinging to ego (tanha), fuelling cycles in which the mighty crush dissent, only creating more enmity. This is illustrated by the example of kings seeking his counsel on conquest, whom he dissuaded by revealing the karmic rebound of violence.

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