THIS WILL EITHER MAKE YOU LAUGH OR MAKE YOU THINK
What has unfolded in the past 7 months has been a case of classical domino theory. On a deeper level, it has wiped away the last remnants of the idea of independent nation-states, revealed the true global power structure (a feudal order), and the first glimmerings of a global civil society.
Firstly, let us begin with some myths about American government. There does exist a general sense among the American populace of a âdemocracyâ, or a government controlled by the people. This is backed up by all of our traditions and myths. However, as the politically savvy will quickly point out, we really have a representative Republic, not a direct or proportional democracy. We usually have only two possible candidate choices, and these candidates only have to answer to the people once every 2, 4, or 6 years, depending on the position they hold, despite the thousands of decisions made between that time. And even when election time comes around, at least half usually feel it useless to vote (or donât care), and the decisive factors often involve special interests very heavily. Once in office, politicians are highly influenced by these same lobbyist groups.
In this light, the classical liberal triumph of modern times can be seen less as an assertion of the rights of man, but with the perspective of a simple de-centralization of power necessitated by changing economic conditions on the eve (and aftermath) of the industrial revolution. And America can be seen less as a country controlled by the people, as an oligarchy of interests reinforced by a semi-accurate image of democracy.
Presidents then are not candidates of the people but candidates of the oligarchy accepted by the people based on their alleigance with interested groups. And the men who surround the president under his appointment may hold the ideas and interests of only a small minority of Americans. None of this is new to the politically savvy, but simply provides the context of the discussion.
Because in the past, these advisors have generally remained just that, and have not fully leveraged their power. However, all fo that changed with the current administration and the Iraq controversy, where the worldâs true power structure has been gradually revealed.
The hawks in the administration, led by Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, in the winter of 2001-2002 represented a very small minority in America. Yet because of the decentralized nature of the administration (divided between them and the doves, led by Colin Powell), they were able to, by the summer of 2002, persuade Bush that a war with Iraq was necessary, given that he would go to the United Nations first. The president and then Powell agreed⌠the first and second dominoes had fallen.
Now that the administration was serious about war, Tony Blair had to decided to hop on the bandwagon for desires of glory, giving the hawks a toe-hold in Europe. Smaller European nations seeking American support and governed by conservative governments elected on issues totally different from the war, also hoped on the bandwagon. The third domino had fallen.
Once the front was presented, Republicans had to choose whether or not to support their president in an election year; some Republican Congressmen nevertheless voiced objections, but they were eventually isolated and pressured to tow the line. The fourth domino fell.
Now the Democrats had to decide in an election year with their wafer-thin senate majority; the pressure to be moderate proved too much for Daschle and Gephardt. The fifth domino fell. It had taken some time, but now it was paying off for the administration hawks: within a few months, the entire American political system had fallen into line.
By falling into line, the Democrats also fell into the trap of having no alternative plan or anything to offer except half-hearted support. In November 2002, faced with a dismal choice, American voters backed clarity over confusion. The sixth domino had fallen into line. The people had exercised âtheir voiceâ.
The vote directly accelerated the pressure on the international community; faced with the possibility of a unilateral attack, the U.N. Security Council thought it could stop the war by appeasing the exploding power of administration hawks: mistake. Within a few days of the election, a seventh domino fell when 1441 was passed.
Despite that no country bordering Iraq wanted war, not even Kuwait, large amounts of American troops began to mass in that small monarchy, which agreed along with other small Gulf monarchies (due to desire for U.S. friendship and support) to be springboards. The crucial eighth domino.
The process slowed again as the remaining independent opponents finally decided to take a stand against the administration⌠But it was too late. Despite 94 percent of Turkish public opinion against the war, despite that Mufasta Kemal Ataturk once said that no foreign troops, friendly or not, would ever set foot in Turkey, the newly elected JDP and Turkish military is about to approve of U.S. troops based on Turkey. The ninth domino.
This week, the six undecided countries of the Security Council, poor, 3rd world nations, will put their national interest ahead of their beliefs and vote for a war they strongly disaprove of. The tenth domino.
If France vetos, it will still look bad and the U.S. will go ahead. Paris will be the 11th domino to fall.
After the war, strong anti-war feeling around the world will have amounted to nothing, and they will be the 12th domino, a victim of their own irrelevance.
Thus, a series of nominally independent entities (1) the president (2) the administration doves (3) the hawkish allies (4) the Republican party (5) the Democratic party (6) the democratic system (7) the general Security Council, part 1 (8) the small regional players (9) a large regional player (10) the general Security Council, part 2 (11) the permanent Security Council (12) world opinion who were in the wake of the fall of the Taliban all opposed or at least not in favor of the war that is about to happen, who are supposed to represent the world, have been pressured, cajoled, coerced, or subverted, one by one, into towing the line, and then in turn used to pressure, cajole, coerce, or subvert the next line of dominoes (or pay the price).
As is obvious from the facts, the world power strucutre has now been revealed: we live in an globally interdependent world feudal system. At the top, the âkingâ, or president, (or his advisors in the case of a weak or conflicted president) can, if he/they does/do it skillfully wield soverignty over a bunch of ânoblesâ, or semi-independent entities: the powers of the domestic republic, world bodies, opinion, and nation-states large and small.
But it is the last domino that is most interesting, for it represents a competing current in this explosive chain of events. 20 years ago or even 10 years ago, before âglobalizationâ, before al Jazeera and CNN and the Internet and cheap long distance, âworld opinionâ did not exist, or if it did it would certainly not have mattered nearly as much as it has. This is a major revolution that has been going on not-so-quietly and yet, it has never, to my knowledge, been pinpointed precisely. After all, since when did Americans or people of other countries closely follow a survey asking what people in countries ranging from Brazil to Nigeria to Russia to the Philipinnes think? Since when were protests so well coordinated and people so well united in a common understanding, and a common struggle (not only against the war in Iraq, but FOR the war⌠against terrorism)?
As power in the upper echelons and traditional corridors solidifies in this post-Cold War, post-Sept. 11 world, into a truly undemocratic conglomeration of coporate and military-industrial special interests, there is a gilmmer of hope: The people are also coming together as never before, something crystalized in the past 7 months, in what is evolving into a global civil society. Let us just hope that in the 21st century, as in the 20th, technology remains a double-sided phenomenon, checking centralization as well as increasing it, and the terrifying promise of George Orwellâs prophecy can be deferred yet again.