The only reasons Trump is winning

The obvious and simple point is that Trump is neither going to get 75% of white males nor 50% of white female votes.

Do you think otherwise!

With love,
Sanjay

Being a two party system, US politics is as straightforward as maths. Both parties have their loyal bases, which do not deviate much. Thus, at the end of the day, it comes down to floating votes to decide the election.

Democrats are playing this game nicely but GOP is not learning from its past mistakes. Obama was on very weak footing in his second election but becoming of Mitt Romeny a GOP candidate ensured second term of Obama. The same is going to happy here. Hillary is not a strong candidate but Trump will ensure her victory.

There is a basic difference between multiparty and twin party elections. In former case, candidates have to only ensure that their loyal base should stick to them. And, in order to endure that, they have to show rigidity and extremism in their ideology. They can afford to do that too because they neiher need nor expect voters of other loyalities to vote for them.

But, that statagy would be suicidal in two party system. In this scenario, which candidate would be able to gather more votes other than his loyal base, is going to win every time. He can afford to take his loyal base as granted here, as not having any other option, those voters would have no choice but to vote for him.

It may sound absurd to some US citizens, but Carson is the most likely winning candiade against Hillary, when it would come to overall election, even considering that he is standing at the bottom in Republican popularity list. But the number of that list would become irrelevant in the overall election, because most of the supporters of other GOP candidates would have no choice but to vote for him. Secondly, he seems to the only such GOP candidate, who can make a hole in the opponent’s fortress.

Whether someone likes it or not, this election has come down to a single issue for voters; are you for Trump or against him. Nothing else matters right now, including Hillary. All others issues have been put on the backburner. US media, which is mostly against the Trump, unknowingly played a huge part in promoting him. More media criticized him, more GOP voters gathered behind him, and as a result of this, more his opponents gathered behind Hillary. If she wins this election, it would not be her victory but only a defeat of Trump. This is precisely what psephologists like to call as negative voting.

What US media did not realize while criticising Trump 24/7, that he does not represent majority but a minority group, which is extreme right wing. And, in any society, minorities always tend to huddle when attacked. That is precisely why Trump’s popularity is skyrocketing within GOP voters.

GOP can play the same game for its benifit too. It can take its extreme right voters for granted and put a liberal face as it’s candiade. In that case, the situation would take turn, because then a democratic candidate would have to fight only within 75% of the total votes.

But, GOP and it’s supporters alwsys refuse to do that and put a hardcore Republican face forth all the time. For the some next US elections, it is very difficult for a typical white male to become president, especially if he is coming from GOP, unless something very extraordinary happens like 3rd world war. Now, it is a turn of all minorities or other genders to be in the white house.

GOP can win this election in only one condition now. Trump has to take his nomination back in the favor of Carlson, and he will defeat Hillary by some margin.

With love,
Sanjay

I think the non-white vote isn’t going to split the way you suggest, first of all. Trump is more popular with blacks than any GOP candidate has been in a long time, and the asian vote tends to go about 50/50 in any close election. I think Bush won in 2000 with only 55% of the male vote, 9% of the African American vote and 35% of the Hispanic vote.

It’s going to come down to turn-out, as it always does. What you have to ask yourself is, who is more determined to show up to the polls: Trump’s supporters or Hillary’s?

You’re forgetting the anti-Trump voters - not all of whom like Hilary but are nonetheless pretty inclined to cast a vote for her if the alternative is Trump.

Trump is rallying the Dem base more effectively than either Sanders or Clinton ever could on their own.

I think most of them will stay home, and I don’t think they outnumber anti-Hilary voters. Well, let me rephrase that. I think they outnumber anti-Hilary voters right now, but they won’t when Bernie Sanders finally gives in and makes a big show about how rigged the elections are and how he was shafted by the super delegates. I think a good number of people that are merely 'Bernie Supporters" in polls right now might be come either Trump supporters, or anti Hillary voters once there’s no Bernie box to check.

That said, I do prefer the other GOP candidates, and I think a couple of them would do better against Hilary than Trump would. I just disagree that Trump has some problem with women or minorities that isn’t just a classic part of the voter breakdown every election year.

Yeah, i disagree, but obviously no one knows these things with any certainty at this point. My thought tends to be that by the time election day has rolled around and Trump’s celebrity luster has been somewhat tarnished by all the inevitable mudraking and baggage checking of the general election campaign, and Hilary has taken Bernie as VP or promised him some other prominent cabinet position, Dems, moderates and most other NON-old-white-anti-government-types will be fed up enough with his juvenile bullshit and transparent mendacity that they will be out in droves. And at that point, Hilary will not have earned many (if any) anti-votes that she doesn’t already have. Let’s not forget, Republicans have been at least partially devoted to destroying her and her political career for over 20 years. Not only have their attempts been abject failures, but they have by now familiarized (to an exhaustive extent) the electorate with all her lies, flip-flops, failures and mistakes. They don’t have much new to offer on that front. Trump may come up with some clever new insults to hurl at her, but the Republicans aren’t likely to uncover any new scandals the public isn’t already sick of hearing about. The same is not true for Trump, whom Dems have not yet even BEGUN to smear and attack.

It would pose a problem if those who favor that narrative think that there can be no exceptions and that corporate control is 100%. This is assuming that Trump goes on to win the whole election, not just the GOP nomination. If corporate money determines the outcome of the majority of elections, including the Senate/House and the presidency, and also has a powerful hand in choosing the administration’s ministers, then those people do not really have problem, unless seeing one black swan means suddenly that most or all swans are black. If we add in that Trump is himself part of corporate america and has been given access to the media, for a long time, gaining name recognition and a reputation for being a leader as a presumption of that recognition, then it seems like they have even less of a problem. Me, being one of those people, consider both Sanders and Trump to not be the corporate elite’s favored candidates. I would think that HIlary will beat Trump and that while they prefer that both candidates be in their pockets, they are not particularly out of the game yet. I even think Nixon - though a reprehensible figure - was the not the candidate the elites really wanted. When you find the smaller subset of people who think that control is always 100% and that there are not other ways to control or limit the power of an elected official by those in real power, they may be experiencing cognitive dissonence at this time, and we can condescendingly feel sympathy for that subset.

Then of course there’s always what must be the nightmare, doomsday scenario for the GOP, wherein Rubio and Cruz manage to get enough delegates that Trump is not the clear winner, there’s a contested convention, Rubio gets nominated, and Trump goes independent (what possible reason could he have NOT to do so?). Admittedly, that is looking less-and-less-likely however. i think tomorrow’s primaries will probably be key in determining just what is going to happen.

Trump may be popular with blacks but as a TV celebrity, not a politician. And, whatever more or less support he would had with blacks, is certainly long gone by now. The same is true for asians, Hispanics and all other minorities. He may or may have not said openly against all those, but his negativity towards all US non-whites has been conveyed well enough.

He is not a inclusive leader but follower of the premise of “us v them” or " device and rule".

Secondly, do not compare this with Bush election. The context was entirely different them. Remember, Bush did not win either because of himself or his party but because of what was done by Clinton as a president. It was not Bush who won, but it was actually Clinton who was defeated by negative voting of some of the traditional Democratic voters or floating votes. They would have voted for any GOP candidate at that election. Bush was lucky to be there as a GOP candidate then.

To your last point about turnouts, I already mentioned that this election is all about a single issue till now, and that is trump himself. Thus, all Trump concerned voters will come out more than others; both who want to ensure his win along with those who want to ensure his defeat.

And, in any social event, be it simple news or even election, negativity always sells dearly. It is a time tested phenomenon in the elections all over the world.

With love,
Sanjay

So, can we look forward to Trump sticking it in our asses also?

Trump made us drop out pants bent over and all of a sudden we took a huge dump. Hey, you know what, that rhymes. :laughing:

He’s getting a larger share of the hispanic and black votes in his primaries than any other candidate, and that includes people like Marco Rubio with a softer stance on immigration issues.

What negativity does he have towards asians? Towards black people? Why are you lumping all ‘non-whites’ together because of his stance on immigration?

Um, the GOP has a stronger control of the Congress right now than at any point since the Civil War, and they have that specifically because of how fed up people are with Obama. How can you say there’s no parallel? If a GOP candidate wins, it will obviously be because they campaigned on undoing all the mistakes and overreach of the Obama administration. It’s practically the only thing the front runners talk about.

I disagree. Hillary is nearly as polarizing as Trump, and easily could become moreso depending on how the FBI investigations go. There’s a shitload of Bernie Sanders supporters who would rather vote Trump or stay home than vote for her.

Ucci,

You are again confusing Trump with GOP, which is not the case now. Majority gained by GOP in the congress does not have any bearing on the winning or losing or Trump. He is almost on his own now.

I did not say that GOP base has been shrinking. That is almost there where it was. But, the issue right now is Trump, not GOP per se. He has completely overshadowed his party in this election, at least so far.

We have to wait and see whether that is for good or bad, both for GOP and Trump himself.

With love,
Sanjay

Our great hero and shining knight riding his white horse straight on his way to the white house. The new savior and messiah for a population that is too lazy, apathetic, and clearly helpless to save itself.

Yes, I’m sure all of this will end very well where we will all finally be delivered to the fabled promised land of Murica…

[Please stay tuned as our glorious new messiah’s activities develop overtime.]

Prepare the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch?

Yes, I believe this time is very appropriate concerning tragedy of American political discourse. Bust it out!

Let’s face it: no matter how much we argue about it, eventually someones going to win. I just wanted to see what peoples thoughts were on the subject and what I’d come up with without even thinking about it. It’s absolutely amazing the things I say some times with barely any pre-thought. I love the collaborative effort of my thoughts that start with bare minimum and then something else yanks it out and gives it back in a fwoosh, that was actually pretty intelligent, kind of fashion.

Let’s face another thing: I don’t think that a third party candidate has won a single election thus far in the history of the US, except maybe once or twice, but that’s hazy at best. So… one of two parties is going to win based on the current running theme and momentum of US politics, the strongest candidates of those parties have already been pointed out and are doing their war dance which might as well be compared to a primitive mating ritual and one of those two is going to eventually ‘win’. So, what’s the point of discussing, arguing, debating after a certain point when the actual facts are laid out and still people choose to refer more to their own bias and prejudice than actually looking at the merits of the people themselves that might make them actually suitable for the position that they’re racing to get to and will spend the next 4-8 years hating the fact that they raced there just to be forced to drag heels while the rest of the political world and much of the rest of the world in general avidly rejects change and runs far from it?

I’m just waiting for the older generations to die so that more ‘reasonable’ minds can prevail and kill the beast that politics and government has become so that we can restore some semblance of ‘sanity’ to society and stop the unnecessary creation of useless laws and rules that they can’t even enforce properly that force us all to become fascists while we avidly deny that fact.

I’m pretty sure that if they were to pull out of their ass a third party candidate with a come-from-behind victory, that too much of the world would be pissed off, so it still comes down to Hilary or Trump and Trump still looks more likely to become president than Hilary. Regardless of polls in between now and the election period and regardless of how people actually vote. Which of the current world leaders are female? None that I know of. Do you really think any one of those alpha males would actually respect an alpha female without being made her bitches? And, that’s bad for masculinity in a world where the men outnumber the women and still most of them are pussy-whipped little bitches, anyway. It’d be too much for their fragile egos to have an outright alpha female not hiding behind the veils of subtlety.

So… yes; I trolled my own thread when the dumbasses started prevailing. Sue me.

These idiots and pundits can keep their illusions of the real world. I prefer the underworld of it instead.

There I reside until the one day the world they’ve constructed comes collapsing down permanently. :wink:

I love how they talk about GOP and the economy as if they actually give a shit about it, as if anybody is telling the truth about it; as if they could, at any point, actually get an accurate tally of the percentage of blah, blah, blah, blah, blah and shut the fuck up.

It’s as if they know what they’re talking about. It’s like talking baseball statistics when it still comes down to who feels like pulling their heads out of their asses to actually win a game.

‘you can always rely on numbers’, say people who want a safe bet in life when there are no safe bets.

I want to live in a world where all people actually want to take part in and help build society and a utopia and actually put the hard work into doing so.

But, sadly, I’m all too able to separate fantasy from reality and similarly able to realize that I can’t get what I fucking want and I’m not supposed to be pissy and upset about it at all, no sir. I’m just supposed to swallow it down like a load of cum as someone or something shoves their dick down my throat and tells me they’re going to fuck me until I love them, but it’s not rape, no sir. You were born free, didn’t you know that? You’re free, son, but btw, you’re gonna be a slave to money until you die and we’re going to turn you into a giant pillhead based on a variety of diseases that never used to really exist until someone decided to market healthcare and profit from it.

Struggle-snuggle. Like how this ‘recession’ is not a ‘depression’.

But when you talk about someones hairline receding, they get all butthurt and go out and buy a false cure for it, cover up the natural process of life and living instead of just dealing with it better.

So, I actually agree with HaHaHa; I’d rather live in truth than some bullshit, Trumped up lie. So, I just wait for the asshats that are supposed to do so to get off their asshats and don them properly and actually get to work deconstructing society and government the hard way, since people are so loath to actually do it properly.