No, it has been something I’ve reviewed a lot over the years.
In martial arts, it’s generally recommended not to make the first move. When the first move is made, the fighter commits to a stance, his opponent can choose from this the counter, giving him the initiative.
What ultimately would of come of Obama’s red line? Assad would of gone into hiding, like Saddam did. Its still our official policy NOT to assassinate world leaders (a international mandate, doesn’t have to be UN, just Arab League and NATO nations could nullify qualms in regards to a slippery slope here).
We would attack Assad, gave weapons without background checks unabashedly to militias loosely associated to the FSA.
End result would be Al Nursa and ISIS armed to the teeth, after receiving coalition SF training. Russia would respond by backing divisional level support of Iranian units in southern Iraq and Syria, supplying logistics, heavy air transport, and military advisors. The conflict would of heated up far worst.
The central issue is Iran is willing to let Iraq and Syria, and Yemen remain De Jure independent, but won’t let it fall into de facto control of it’s opposition. Its been fighting for a very, very long time against the Sunnis, and was invaded by them within the last generation.
Russia is a natural enemy of Iran, shares territorial borders, Russian Islamic population is typically Sunni, hostile to Iran. Both are oil producing states, manufacture second rate industrial products, and military exports are competitors for buyers in the Soviet equipped military world, as both use similar basic hardware designs. What keeps them together is they share similar indignities and limitations from western nations, and a sense of encrochment from the west. China is at best lukewarm, a occasional buyer of minerals, oil, and junk products.
Russian strategy is completely built around the Russian Central Bank, and a urgent need to expand it’s international holdings. Gold, Silver, Oil is universally accepted. So are Dollars, but the US under Reagan manipulated oil supply and currency to the Soviets disadvantage, it was the ultimate cause for their collapse.
Russian central bank needs foreign currency, and access to markets that accept that currency. It faces embargoes through the Dardenalles, Boycotts, and Sanctions whenever it advances west. It has made it’s reexpansion through Europe very difficult, from Bulgaria and Hungarian to Romania, same story. It will eventually get shut out of trade with Turkey. Georgia and Ukraine are in open collaboration.
Notice the major trade deals between Russia and Turkey wasn’t shut down by Russia, but Turkey? Turkey is also always the first to shut down borders with Iran if something goes loopey.
Russia needs to export oil without NATO interference. Its either through the ice, across the Arctic to Asia, or through pipelines to nations that can fly their own flags for transport.
Syria can do this, and Iraq. In both countries, it has Hugh holdings, in Syria, it includes agricultural development in rebel areas, generation long contracts. Why? It needs the oil, it needs ports, and it needs access to sanction resistant markets. Its currency is worthless without them, and all it’s dollars and euroes can’t do a damn thing when it’s cut off from everyone.
Its why you see current chairmen of Russian central banks popping up just prior to the ISIS Breakout in these regions.
Had we pushed hard with Obama’s red line, we wouldn’t of had a responsible, effective strategy. It would of been pointless strikes. Yes, we can destroy all aircraft, crater airfields… Russians would of flown out of Cyprus and Iran acting as Assad’s Air force.
We can bomb armories, but Syria likely has hundreds of Randal bunkers spread out on several dozen bases. Most aren’t chemically related, and their primary weapons of choice are barrel bombs, something deeply unsophisticated and not kept in bunkers or warehouses.
Likewise, Russia and Iran would of flooded Syria with Anti Aircraft weapons. US can counter them, like in Libya, but not the gulf states, or Europe. Though their contributions are minor in actual bombing, their surveillance, diplomatic support, and indirect funding, such as Germany arming the Peshmerga when the US couldn’t due to Iraqi relations (Hugh debate if ft hey should dump the US and bring in Russia and Iran officially instead).
End result is, we would of more or less instantly lost the war. Obama should never of made the red line statement, never make such a bluff, you need to be able to show you can follow through.
It took us a long time to redevelop a strategy. First counter to the above scenario occurred when the US and Germany pulled out it’s commitment to keeping Patriot Missiles in Turkey, and getting the Turks to back off on the Kurdish Cantons in North Syria.
Reason why, is though it’s not designed to knock down Russian air defence missiles, it still can, somewhat. Russia would of deployed it’s deterrent in Syria much earlier, and Russia would if flown fighters with it’s bombers. I don’t think the US let Erdogan know of this intention, thought it was unlikely to happen, but really needed Turkey, and not the US or Germany to make the first hit. Turkish pride and nationalism did the rest, west picked up the pieces, Russia deployed it’s anti air missiles, had to come up with an excuse for why it was bombing Non-ISIS targets. Now ground militias can be equipped to counter and nab Russian assets in it’s poorly defended airfields (they have had minor skirmishes, Russians promise no protection to locals).
Only 8% of Syrian Army fighting has been against ISIS, it’s mostly other rebel groups. Russia is mirroring this emphasis more or less, they need more “moderate” territory to rebuild the Syrian Army. Even with Russia, Assad is coming to a end here soon. Its gonna be nasty when ISIS switches to Urban pushes in Assad main areas when Russia can only pull of daytime dumb bomb drops, radioed in by Arabic speaking forward observers. You saw how bad Kobani got with high precision hits. I don’t think Putin can replicate this without estranging Assad’s core supporters.
West can now selectively arm rebels with weapons, some of which can take down Russian aircraft. We have the short line of logistics, we have a legal just cause, given our special forces teams are hidden across northern Syria… if they are hit by Russian Aircraft, it’s over for Russia, either a no fly zone goes up, or rebels start liquidating their assets using our advanced weaponry.
Likewise in Iraq… the Iraqi Army went hard to the Iranians, US stagnated. We stuck to a near exclusive air campaign, whenever the Iraqi Army didn’t do the main offensive pushes, we backed off. When they did, we supported. It would of taken the Iraqi Army 6 months to cut off Mosul once they retook Haditha Dam… all you had to do was send a division to take the Outskirts of Southwest Mosul, Kurds could of held the North… ISIS left in the rear a minor worry. Main roads taken, but there are dozens of dirt roads in the desert north of the Euphrates… I know, I’ve traced each one on Google. A small tank and attack helicopter detachment could of fucked up any major ISIS movements in this nomans land. Infantry/Armored Cars held the walked cities, modified concrete supports in the main arteries could of foiled any blitzkrieg push ISIS was fond of making.
Iraq didn’t invest in it’s army, demoralized it, ridiculed those who remained loyal and continue to fight, and switched to a Shia emphasis over Sunni. The militias in both Syria and Iraq were mostly inept, so they brought in their top generals, and just recently lost their biggest name in Aleppo.
Meanwhile, Turkey has been training up Turkomen and Kurdish fighters to retake Mosul. They now even officially announced establishingba FOB. Iraq is threatening airstrikes, but if it does, it will best case scenario lose it’s aircraft to superior Turkish Fighters, worst case… successfully hit Turkish and Peshmerga fighters.
If this happens, the Peshmerga will cede from Iraq, declare their own state, be recognized by Turkey, given official Kurdish to Turkey oil contracts, Kurds will storm Mosul with Russian help, then sack the Kurdish Cantons in Syria, pushing out Occalan influences, becoming a buffer state to both Turkey and NATO. I am largely okay with this, as it makes NATO more stable over the next few centuries. Also secularizes Sunni populations in Syria and Iraq, as it will become a prosperous and westernizes influence, counter to the Shia in the south.
Kurds, instead of the Iraqi government, severed the main Iraqi - Syrian Artery.
US sorta has small elite groups of men on the ground, they can potentially be weeding the ISIS forces down through small kill teams, causing demoralization and havoc at night. I’m not seeing too much evidence for this, but can start at any time, if it hasn’t already.
I would prefer for the Kurds and Turks not force a Peshmerga succession if the Iraqis attack. My preference is a Fatwa declaring Assad a legitimate target, commented on by Arab States positively, and western philosophers to write positively on this, deligitimizing Assad as a official head of state, accused of genocide and war crimes, particularly by philosophers with legal backgrounds, who’s works hold judicial status in countries like Italy.
Once Assad is dead, it hardly closes the issues of Syrian Army war crimes, but it will be a Hugh relief to Putin if whoever takes control (they will rapidly lose territory as thus occurs) pledges to honor Russian contracts, offers to meet with the west. Russia will be satisfied, might even cross Iran to a point.
Likewise in Iraq, it’s still De Jure independent. Sooner Mosul is wrestled away from ISIS, without Tukey and Kurds sealing off the border for good in the north, the more likely it is to recover, though with a nasty mix of Shia militia and backwards military. It will heavily favor Iran, but will have a lot if stress for the Sunnis during occasional rebellions, and will have to take on a more independent national character. I don’t think Russia want Iran to get too cuddly with Iraq, just prefers it to Iraq being cuddly with the West. Its long term goals will eventually force it into a antagonistic stance against Iran, though I don’t all out war.
Expect further pushes into Ukraine, Turkey probing it’s Russian border, and Russia pushing hard into Georgia to hit refugee communities from Chechnya. Also expect sanctions returning back on Iran, and half of Europe refusing. I don’t know if Israel will hit Iran soon, it’s communications with Russia over Syria is cryptic, but it seems to be cooperating with Russia, while labeling the Assad/Iranian/Hezbollah Axis as far more dangerous than ISIS, and is adjusting it’s military stance to this, which doesn’t make much sense.
Middle East would of been far worst off had Obama bombed Syria after the red line. We got lack in Iraq on making cross border contacts. We didn’t learn from Vietnam and Korea the importance of having friends in bordering states who can check interstate guerillas, encampments, providing a list of who is who. We do investigate a lot of stuff, just not the heads of militias, local economic strongmen (especially black market prior to militias forming), and we don’t befriend and bribe these people. It pays off in the long run. We didn’t know who was who when this war started, despite knowing Syria under Assad was raising Sunni militias to target Falluja, Iskandariya and Baghdad for years. I was on the receiving end of that. We really should of been playing the demographics, picking out strongmen and getting them to be our friends in Syria and Iran. A head of a local Mafia will not hesitate to undermine the government if given enough money and incentive.