the threat from North Korea

Philosophy Forums Society, Government, and Economics
1

It behooves the mind to think about the news coming out of North Korea, as to it’s saber rattling. She has come out and threatened south korea by canceling the peace treaty which has been in place since the conclusion of that war, has defied sanctions , so acrimoniously adopted by the UN, now even approved by the Chinese.

Is this mere bluster on the koreans part? It doesn’t appear to be so. The US defense department has come out and ordered more anti missile systems to be put in place in Alaska and the coast of California, and ordered nuclear weaponed aircraft to fly by Korea.

The unavoidable fact, seems to be, that this whole scenario could have been avoided. It’s incredibly strange to go along with the notion that Washington really believed that sanctions would work, and the same could be said of sanctions aimed against Iran.

If, years and years of reversals did not teach the US government of the deceptive nature of North Korea’s agreements, all made to be able to serve as a cover to continue developing missiles and weapons, then, what may the underlying motives be?

Another theory has been advanced as to the dynamics of the inner workings of diplomacy, particularly the notion, that China and the US are waging a silent war, and that North Korea is a stage fueled by China, in order to avoid a direct confrontation.

Is there any real facts to support any of these or other theories as to what really is going on in this regard?

I thought it is a good way to start a topic, which may be significant, in terms of how these kinds of mispreceptions can spread to confuse an already uncertain and dangerous world.

2

North Korea wants in on the international market on it’s terms… it wants several large industrial projects built (chinese workers funded by us), and secure markets that won’t be fucked with by sanctions, and a international bank under it’s directorship, and for their new leader to look like big shit in the process.

How do I know? Because that’s what all these tin pot dictators demand, and all these are elements North Korea has traditionally demanded. They still gotta compromise in the end, as Myanmar did.

In North Korea’s case, they have one commodity… nukes, that these past countries didn’t have. There isn’t anymore a Soviet Union that will just freely fund mass building projects in exchange for base and naval rights, or expectations they direct a proxy war against the great enemy’s allies. Cold war is over, Russia only moves if it’s in it’s business interests, or in preserving a monopoly, like with Iran or Cuba.

North Korea’s leadership feels it has to continually push this to brinksmanship as that’s the only hand they have to get anything of quality in return. They don’t want rice for people they already have absolute control over, they want some hard hitting, quality infrastructure, and access to foreign currency on their own terms.

Your thinking your dealing with a foreign state, your dealing with a third generation tyranny… think Obama cubed in terms of shit-headed arrogance and disregard for others. It’s only ever gotten anything from the threat of force. It’s wise in this case to actually just give in, and let the military caste get it’s foreign bank accounts and passports, with Ferrari dealerships and high end French Fashion… and foreign businesses set up, etc. There is a lot more advantage for us to manipulate and split them up against one another in allowing this to happen then to resist them and watch their amateur discombobulations unfold. Every act they’ve played the last ten years would of been laughed at had it been presented on this forum by even the most ignorant of the liberal here. If they become decadent, they won’t be able to resort to brinksmanship as much, as the military caste will continue to fracture more than it likely already is, we would have the strings of top cadre to pull on our side to our hearts content. We would be able to break them at will, or to remake them into a country that actually feeds it’s hostages… err, I mean population.

The armistice wasn’t a end to the war, it was a voluntary cease fire on both sides… and there has been alot of fighting on both sides the last few generations. Don’t think for a second China would prefer North Korea boarding it over say, stable and relatively friendly South Korea. It’s a massive business opportunity for China, and it could cut significantly it’s own defense budget not having to worry about a war coming from that direction from it’s so called ally. China’s natural ally is South Korea, not North Korea at this time. The Chinese public won’t understand why they gotta fight a war there, cause they openly mock and dismiss Korea… it’s the one place the average impoverished Chinese peasant manages to look down on in the region, they know it could be worst for them, and that it isn’t as bad for them.

3

Contra: I can’t but help to think that there is more to this than class struggle within North korea for improving the life style of upper the upper echelon of North Korea to live up to the luxuries of Western standards.

At may appear, that a stage may be being set for a safety valve between major powers, in order to ambiguate ideological confusion (within China) and to displace questionable international behavior.

Both parties may find this as a matter of convenience, to deal with loss of face and the conduct of covert business as usual.

The point of view that an impoverished, barely nuclear country of some twenty million souls, could pose a risk to western powers with a technological jump start of almost 75 years, is totally absurd.

To establish such a perception still leads to the same naïve view that propagation of an agenda motivated
Scenario is as believable as before.

It may be, that beneath the veneer of internal dissent and political expediency on the part of the Koreans, there may lurk a correlative project of international what-to-do.

4

No… it’s honestly just that. It’s a very historic pattern for second rate Dynasties in the third generation and a unstable, new nobility to start fidgeting for divestment of authority to them, and in exchange to give the leading household a sense of security. This is actually classic statecraft, Ibn Khaldun nailed this one in a more Machiavellian manner than his contemporary Machiavelli could. It’s the third generation everything starts breaking down… it’s not exactly some new observation that I myself came up with.

I understand and applaud you for seeing a buffer state here- but the main threat between China and the US isn’t a head on confrontation anymore- the tactical synthesis between our two counties are rather absurd right now- they can sink our carriers and we can blow up their missle batteries, airfields, and missle batteries easily from Japan, Korea, and even the phillipines if was commenced. It would be a pointless standstill and both side would lose alot of assets… and both the US and China have been working together to eventually be able to project force in policing the international traderoutes.

What’s happening with China in Sri Lanka and Singapore alone should make it obvious China doesn’t want a war… and how worthless North Korea as a ‘buffer state’ would be… as North Korea doesn’t buffer shit for them. China isn’t scared of South Korea… they are annoyed by them- loud obnoxious talkers, but it’s way better than the stunted midgets wetbacking it through the borderlands, hiding out in the cities, robbing employment for nearly as poor Chinese peasants trying to find wage work.

North Korea offers very few advantages to China… it’s a wacky landmine waiting to go off, and you don’t know how it’s going to effect the stability of the region. No one does… and it’s why China is as hesitant about North Koreas actions as the rest of the region.

China’s main power is it’s infinite reserves of infantry… but there isn’t enough infantry in china to stall a rush on Beijing from North Korea. In the end… yeah, obviously, but a psycho-nuclear power is a unnerving risk to have on your border. They are not butt-buddies to the fearless end. China has a lot to loose, such as it’s capital and main trading partners in a silly wacky war.

North Korea is behaving predictably. Let’s exploit this and ease them down softly with the least humanitarian casualties possible… we don’t want a collapse with defiant, confused rogue elements inside launching guerrilla raids from hidden bunkers and tunnel complexes for their dearly departed ruling dynasty against international peace keepers who got bludgeoned coming in, trying to prevent a biblical scale massive famine there, as well as a weird, multi-partied civil war. They are so brainwashed I think a sizable portion of the population would support it.

None the less, I applaud you for thinking about such matters. I just wouldn’t go for the unorthodox explanation before evaluating the orthodox, recent and classical history points to how this one is playing out.

5

The new USA has to stay at war with someone, if not an enemy of Israel, then a small Communist country will do.

6

There’s a threat from North Korea?

7 
 There is an apparent threat and a real threat. The appearent threat is based upon intelligence that seems to indicate that NK's intercontinental missle development has reached the stage where they can mount a nuclear device upon the missile that is allegedly able to reach as far as Alaska and the California Coast.

The real threat is that they have reached nuclear technological know how, where they can build nuclear weapons, albeit very early versions compared to the great nuclear powers, where the real danger I’d in NK willing to sell these weapons to whomever. This can be dangerous and cause a sudden upturn in proliferation.

The danger has been aired based on intelligence reports and is taken very seriously, by the militaries all around the world.

8

What intelligence?

Would you buy a nuke made by North Koreans? I wouldn’t even buy an mp3 player from them.

The danger has been aired based on the need for the US people to perceive an outside threat, and is being taken very seriously by state-approved media hosts all around the world.

In short, it’s bullshit. The only people the North Korean government are a threat to are North Koreans.

9

Are you do deluded SAITD to actually believe this stuff? Do you think Chruchill orchestrated a Nazis state in order to keep control over the English? Do you think the V2 attacks was faked? That people were lead into the underground, while police walked around shooting firecrackers as a means to control the population?

Your either the most uninformed person on this site (save perhaps Gobbo who thinks the Washington State Police are after him because he’s black) or are blantantly in support of such regimes.

I am american, with the military background, and I am openly advocating for a demilitarization of outlook here. I opposed the invasion of Libya… and am a Pragmatic Pacifist. North Korea is playing a game of Brinksmanship- not the US. It used to work during the cold war, but isn’t very successful anymore. The north is broken up into subfactions right now… and it’s not in Kim’s best interest to back the military faction in the long term, but if he doesn’t, he loses his position, and most likely, his life. If that happens, the whole country turns into a shitstorm of rival factions knocking one another off, without a obvious entry point for any country to move in and assist the more sane subfactions in fighting off the most deranged.

It’s a fucking bad situation, but it’s one that’s quite predictable. Think of the Derg in Ethipoia, some thick headed stupid fucks, but much worst as North Korea doesn’t have a tradition of sound government to call on- everyone- even those on the top, get watched and fucked with, and everyone assumes if they aren’t going to be the winners, they will be the painful losers. It’s very high risks within North Korea. Anything can set it off. America poaching it, turning it into a enemy is rather stupid… it’s the one place on earth we can point to with certainty noting we never wanted the war in the first place… they attacked US in the beginning, and have been stuck there in a never ending standoff ever since. Even President Bush tried to officially end the stupid war. If it was as simple as signing a treaty saying ‘North Korea won the war, US Defeated’ and leaving, we would… but we have South Korea- who has been reliant on us backing them for over 60 years from China-Soviet backed North. North Korea can seriously fuck them up in a matter of minutes even without the nukes. It be like France in a matter of minutes bombing London out of existence… you can be sitting on the toilet, minding your own business, and then without warning- your dead. It’s that quick.

We don’t want that to happen to anyone, especially a country that has supported us as much as South Korea, and vice versa. North Korea is in this weird, 3rd generation dynastic melt down, Kim ‘might’ make it, he’s charismatic… but it’s likely not enough. Right now, making a enemy out of North Korea doesn’t do shit for the US, not for Japan, not for China, not for the South, and not for the peasants in North Korea. It’s a very delicate situation. Even something small, like a minor wikileaks leaking of US or other nations views of the DPRK, could cause a meltdown in Pyongyang from any faction, and a nasty brutal regional war. It’s not something the US is interested in lighting the fire of, only thing that can happen is mass chaos and the loss of life after each faction launches a coup- successful or not, on the other as everyone else desperately tried to jump the mine hurdles to break and and restore order. We’re not that well prepared for that. Do you comprehend the food costs alone of getting enough rice to keep all those people alive for a few years?

10

Why do people think North Korea is a threat?

The place is a fucking Elvis-imposter fantasy land circa the 1940s. They don’t have delivery systems for nukes because they don’t really have technology in the sense of how we perceive it outside of North Korea. These people drive old Fords and think Dennis Rodman is a celebrity.

Turn off the television and stop being mindless drones. Holy shit. So tired of this “hurrr durrr North Korea” nonsense.

11

Seriously. Without posting a clip from the news, make one argument why, living in the West, anyone should even remotely give a fuck about North Korea, let alone be afraid of them, let alone feel the need to go to war.

12

I don’t think SAITD is THAT deluded and uninformed. Also Gobbo is not uninformed. He reads allot of stuff.
If I were you I’d hold back on the ad hom.

[edit] and gobbo posted two replies before I posted this.

13

People like CN, when you look past all the typing, and the irrelevant military chest beating, it boils down to the following:

Just repeating what you are told on television.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWnt2exFm1o[/youtube]

14

Coming from someone who thinks daydreams are a valid source of historical and political information, I won’t take this to heart.

15

Despite how it may look to you, I didn’t mean that as an insult.
I think everyone is a little bit deluded and uninformed. That is why I worded it like this, instead of saying “SAITD is not deluded or uninformed.”

I don’t think you know me very well and that is why you say I think daydreams are a valid source of historical and political information.

16

Really… ad hom for me? Really Dan? Really? I’m the one getting lectured here Dan? It’s like taking it out on the intendent in a insane asylum for being rude and mean.

And I stress, I am NOT for a war with North Korea. If we go to war with North Korea, I’m tying Gobbo and SAITD to the front of the Engineering Strykers to take the first blows from the enemy fire, not because I am supportive of war, but because I’m going to be pissed we ended up having on because people haven’t been paying attention to the situation.

I’ve been knee deep in Korean news since I hit puberty… I’ve gove over the whole country with Google Earth, what exactly do you want me to link you to? My unit was are quick reaction force for the Pacific, and I already had a background in the asian military classics prior to joining the army, and have a solid grasp on korean history… I even watch the television.

Castaway on the Moon was pretty badass of a movie… shit… Queen Seondeok and Li San…

what do I gotta do, write a fucking essay on the Confucian classics in Korea, or the writings of Kim il Sung, Kim Jong Il in order to get it understood I might have a grasp of the situation? Do I gotta start quoting old korean war histories, or doctrine relating to North Korea?

I know what models of ships they sell, motorcycles, military radios, tools, and even industrial chains. Fuck… I can tell you how many paths are in the field between Russia, China, and North Korea (which is really weird as it’s clearly unguarded and people just roam in and out, they got a collective near by within walking distance of the boarded).

When I say ‘hey, don’t bomb this country’ it’s for good reason. It’s because it’s not going to work out that well.

And yes, Gobbo is classically uninformed… he thought the Washington state police of all things was racist, and he’s a notorious conspiracy theorist. He’s never said anything sane, balanced, or intelligent for that matter. The world is one way, and he intentionally disregards it and trumpets a perspective that is only achievable if one is constantly high, and avoids anything involving news or libraries involving works on foriegn news, politics, or economics and strategy. He may infact be the least informed person in the history of the world. What evidence do I give? His posts.

I understand you’ve taken a perspectivist outlook Dan… but know the perspectivist outlook doesn’t apply to strategic thinking- and however broken or backwards North Korea is, it has access to all the historic Military Classics, which puts the various factions within it on a intellectual level dramatically higher than most people in American Universities… they have that same Buddhist background in Skepticism we got in the west from ancient thought, but they advanced significantly beyond it. They make really crappy industrial equipment, but can execute a highly complex, multi-tiered strategy marvelously. Way better than we would expect Iraq or Iran or even the Nazis to pull off if put in similar circumstances… their corpus of military works, especially the native, ancient ones, there is really that advanced, it’s not something to laugh at or dismiss as nothing. North Korea isn’t a laughing matter. I am not drumming a wardrum here… I’m offering the peace pipe to them if anything.

As to Gobbo’s assumption that their missle tech is antiquated- it can nuke the fuck out of Beijing, Japan, and South Korea rather easily… or can be loaded on a freighter for delivery. The only nukes every used in a war were delivered via non-missle technology. And yes, their military philosophy has for the last 2500 years advocated unorthodox projection of force… it’s going to be very natural for them to think of delivering it via non-orthodox means.

And PS… last I checked, out missile defense shield wasn’t exactly that efficient in taking down dummy warheads, it still misses alot… better than nothing, but can very well amount to nothing.

It takes a conscientious act of enforced stupidity not to grasp what I am saying here. I am not the silverback gorilla here beating my chest Dan… I’m stressing De-escallating this situation… but if we misstep slightly, we can loose several hundreds of thousands of people within minutes. This is beyond the scope of SAITD and Gobbo’s competency (I don’t actually know where their scope is truthfully). I know your trying to apply your philosophy here Dan, but trust me, it’s not applicable… we’re not able to see our blindspots, and get angry when others point it out.

I can recommend going onto Itunes and start with downloading The Seven Military Writtings of Ancient China, and get started there. It’s not up your alley though, given your magical emphasis. However, it is my specialty in philosophy. It’s my one area of solid expertise. If I say ‘you don’t know what you are talking about’ it’s no different than a college professor writing that on the top of a freshman’s paper with a big fat F printed on the side of the remark. That’s not a Ad Hom, it’s the true and honest reality of the situation. They either do not grasp the situation, or effectively are willing to toss the world aside for influencing others to a crapshhot of hedonistic games that can’t end positively for anyone, if they ever influence the right/wrong people.

I also know this is how pathetic North Korea is… someone in North Korea is reading this right now. I’m not joking, I got hit by spyware two years back from a DPRK embassy site, and then got my computer shut down when I was chatting with a marxist professor I was friends with in Dalian on her trip in Tibet… computer was never able to be recovered. They owe me a 2000 computer. They actively spy on people on the net, and load some terrible shit on them…

17

It can begin at any moment, any day. If North Korea decides that they will act on their explicit renunciation of the 38th parallel arrangement, then all of our supermarket lives will end unceremoniously. They might march into South Korea over the 38th parallel to “re-unite” with their “brethren” and there will be an American President who has to decide what to do about it.

That is the part that I get sick over

18

A bunch of typing. No response to the question of what threat they pose.

As I said, they are technologically laughable. This whole discussion is laughable. That you are calling me a conspiracy theorist and talking about everything except the issue says a lot.

You have nothing.

Wait, sorry you have that. Wait, sorry that’s still nothing.

19

Well, I have to say, Hollywood makes far better propaganda films than CNN and associates. I’m sure everyone under the age of 15 is going to fully accept the plausibility of half of the Korean red army wondering around Washington DC fully armed with rockets, mini-guns, explosives of every type, anti-aircraft weapons and all completely unnoticed until they pull a surprise raid on the White House, capturing the President, who surprisingly wasn’t Morgan Freeman… well, not in the beginning.

Funny, you can’t get a Japanese made sling shot into DC, but hell, if you’re Iranian or Korean, just walk right in, nukes and all, no one will notice, just tell them that your not a terrorist.

20

Clearly you don’t think that ‘everyone is a little bit deluded and uninformed’ since in your very next sentence you wrote:

So, fuck you very much for the insult and for the pathetic attempt to lie your way out of it.

You blather on about humanoids on another planet as though that has some relevance to mankind’s trajectory. You clearly do think daydreams are a valid source of such information.

But I ‘didn’t mean that as an insult’…