But the claims themselves establish the pattern.
If the roughly 60 million Americans who claim to have seen ghosts were seeing something capable of being captured on camera, then given that almost all of them have a camera within reach 24 hours a day, we would expect to see a minimum of tens of thousands of compelling photos and videos. That’s the pattern we expect from things that can be captured on camera.
We know a great deal about “literal, objective, measurable-by-anyone-because-they-are-part-of-shared-reality” things work, and we know that they don’t produce the pattern of evidence we see for ghosts.
I’d argue the example of ball lightning is actually strong evidence against ghosts. Ball lightning is rare and fleeting, so while it exists, there’s very little opportunity to observe it. It’s because it’s exceedingly rare that its existence was in dispute for so long. And yet, we have it on video.
As of 2015, nearly a fifth of the US population said they have seen a ghost. We should expect so much more video evidence of ghosts than we have of ball lightning, and we don’t have it.
There really isn’t. My argument doesn’t depend on any particular explanation for the experiences people describe. It only depends on there being multiple possible explanations, and that different explanations produce different patterns of evidence.
The pattern of evidence we have lets us rule out explanations that entail things like “ghosts are the kind of thing that reflects or emits light”. Whatever else they are, they aren’t that.
False beliefs are bad.
Because that’s not my claim. My claim is that the pattern of evidence we do have is incompatible with the existence of ghosts I provide in the OP.
You are using a different meaning of ‘ghost’: