Will machines completely replace all human beings?

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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby James S Saint » Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:06 pm

obe wrote:So James, if You are reading this, where can Your blog on facial recognition be found? Thanks

My blog on facial recognition??? :-s
What blog? :confusion-scratchheadblue:
Clarify, Verify, Instill, and Reinforce the Perception of Hopes and Threats unto Anentropic Harmony :)
Else
From THIS age of sleep, Homo-sapien shall never awake.

The Wise gather together to help one another in EVERY aspect of living.

You are always more insecure than you think, just not by what you think.
The only absolute certainty is formed by the absolute lack of alternatives.
It is not merely "do what works", but "to accomplish what purpose in what time frame at what cost".
As long as the authority is secretive, the population will be subjugated.

Amid the lack of certainty, put faith in the wiser to believe.
Devil's Motto: Make it look good, safe, innocent, and wise.. until it is too late to choose otherwise.

The Real God ≡ The reason/cause for the Universe being what it is = "The situation cannot be what it is and also remain as it is".
.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Orbie » Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:19 pm

Then it's on 'recognition' i am certain of it, about a tear ago. I will find some time today, and really search them archives, unless i am hallucinating. No i am certain of it, and even made a mental note to go back to it. LOL
[size=50][/size]Allone's Obe issance



In answer to your prayer
sincere, the centre of
your circle here,
i stand ; and , without
taking thought,-
i know nothing. But i can

Full well your need-as
you be men
This: Re-Creation. With a
bow,
Then, your obedient

servant now.
One gift is all i find in me,
And that is faithful
memory
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:43 pm

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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby James S Saint » Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:01 am

The indications are fairly stark. The work in routine occupations is trending toward zero. This fall lines up fairly well with the rise of automation of various kinds. For example, computer programs are doing the work of paralegals and x-ray technicians, and factory robots are displacing large numbers of automobile assembly line workers. There are applications that can write sports newspaper articles, based simply on the scoring history in the game.

Of course, for those who consider science fiction as the best oracle for an unknowable future, consider this shot in the dark from Isaac Asimov, who wrote in 1964 about a visit to the World's Fair of 2014:

The world of A.D. 2014 will have few routine jobs that cannot be done better by some machine than by any human being. Mankind will therefore have become largely a race of machine tenders.

Soon, all that will be left for human beings will be the non-routine, creative work. How many of our occupations will our software overlords steal away from us? Many more than today, according to Carl Benedict Frey and Michael A. Osborne, two researchers at Oxford who looked at 702 current occupations.
"Soon, all that will be left for human beings will be the non-routine, creative work."

The researchers found that approximately half of current occupations (47 percent) are at risk of going the way of the telephone operator within just a decade or two. These two researchers relied on the same matrix of work as the Federal Reserve team, and examined how quickly robotic dexterity and A.I. cognition would hollow out jobs that seem to be the preserve of humans today:

Our findings could be interpreted as two waves of computerisation, separated by a "technological plateau". In the first wave, we find that most workers in transportation and logistics occupations, together with the bulk of office and administrative support workers, and labour in production occupations, are likely to be substituted by computer capital.

Note that the "transportation and logistics" sector includes many occupations that will be slammed by autonomous vehicles, like truckers (the number one occupation for men in the U.S. currently), taxi drivers and warehouse workers. Administrative support is the number one job for women in the US, so our robot overlords are equal opportunity, at least.

Frey and Osborne suggest that the second future wave of displacement will come at some later date, when A.I. gains the secrets of creativity and social intelligence. That may take a longer time, but at some future date, lawyers, engineers, brain surgeons and even actors might be displaced by 'bots. In fact, one venture capital firm, Deep Knowledge Ventures, has already appointed an algorithm to its board of directors.
"Lawyers, engineers, brain surgeons and even actors might be displaced by 'bots."

So, we are confronted with the critical question of 2025, as I stated in the recent Pew Internet report, AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs:

What are people for in a world that does not need their labor, and where only a minority are needed to guide the 'bot-based economy?

While it is likely that for the next few decades the educated, creative and inventive will find avenues to gainful employment, that will not be the case for all. How will we organize our world if machines can provide goods and services at lower and lower costs while fewer and fewer have income enough to buy anything?

"when A.I. gains the secrets of creativity and social intelligence."
Unknown to the author of that story, "they" already have it.
Clarify, Verify, Instill, and Reinforce the Perception of Hopes and Threats unto Anentropic Harmony :)
Else
From THIS age of sleep, Homo-sapien shall never awake.

The Wise gather together to help one another in EVERY aspect of living.

You are always more insecure than you think, just not by what you think.
The only absolute certainty is formed by the absolute lack of alternatives.
It is not merely "do what works", but "to accomplish what purpose in what time frame at what cost".
As long as the authority is secretive, the population will be subjugated.

Amid the lack of certainty, put faith in the wiser to believe.
Devil's Motto: Make it look good, safe, innocent, and wise.. until it is too late to choose otherwise.

The Real God ≡ The reason/cause for the Universe being what it is = "The situation cannot be what it is and also remain as it is".
.
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Posts: 25976
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Tortis » Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:53 pm

James S Saint wrote:"when A.I. gains the secrets of creativity and social intelligence."
Unknown to the author of that story, "they" already have it.


They don't. That's why my job as a translator is not under threat from computers. Free machine translation like Google Translate has come along in the time I have been working as a translator, but it hasn't made any difference to my work. Google Translate, machine translation and AI generally can't do what I can do, because AI doesn't have social intelligence, and it never will, because social intelligence depends on conscious, embodied experience, and computation is irrelevant to conscious, embodied experience.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:03 pm

Tortis wrote:They don't. That's why my job as a translator is not under threat from computers.

And you do not think that this threat will come?
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Flannel Jesus » Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:24 pm

My wife is a translator. A huge, huge, huge portion of jobs agencies are handing out has gone from 'Translate this for 8p / word' to 'This has been machine-translated; just edit it for 5p / word.'
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Tortis » Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:35 pm

Flannel Jesus wrote:My wife is a translator. A huge, huge, huge portion of jobs agencies are handing out has gone from 'Translate this for 8p / word' to 'This has been machine-translated; just edit it for 5p / word.'


Nobody has ever offered me anything like that. But I deliver high quality work in demanding subject areas, most people can't do what I do, machine translation doesn't stand a chance in my market.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Tortis » Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:38 pm

Arminius wrote:
Tortis wrote:They don't. That's why my job as a translator is not under threat from computers.

And you do not think that this threat will come?


No, there are insurmountable barriers to human-level computer translation. To properly understand human language it is necessary to live in a world of experience.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:38 pm

What do you think about the future of the translators?
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:39 am

Tortis wrote:No, there are insurmountable barriers to human-level computer translation.

Very, very difficult barriers. Insurmountable? I wouldn't go that far. Language is complex, but it is extremely finite as well.

I would give translation less than 10 years before a computer can do it nearly as well as a professional. Better before 50 years.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Kriswest » Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:24 pm

As recording devices are made to interpret the inflections of speech and cameras can be used to interpret body language, an AI. could do the job with more accuracy and without prejudice. Of course such complete honesty can cause huge issues. Sometimes we are better off ignoring.
I will be bitchy, cranky, sweet, happy, kind, pain in the ass all at random times from now on. I am embracing my mentalpause until further notice. Viva lack of total control!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is not a test,,, this is my life right now. Have a good day and please buckle up for safety reasons,, All those in high chairs, go in the back of the room.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Orbie » Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:40 pm

At this stage of time i would give it a better than 80-20 chance that this state of the art progression will happen. If things proceed with this type of predicitve certainty, the following may happen, not necessarily in the realm of transcribing, or translating: There will be a conflict between man and machine. A war of an intra world type. Namely, there will become an awareness of lurking danger by both, man and machine, and all segments of life will be, and i boldly state/ EVEN NOW, will be effected. Political, social, ecenomic, psychological and technical crisis will be reached at some point, producing a matrix of predicting most probbel results, particlarily focusing on the limits of societal awareness of limits of endurance toward a preception AND an actual sustanance od humanity's will to live. Thereafter the course will be programmed, and if the thesis, that a minority segment of the population will wish to deny the results of such study will not result in a synthesis; the result of an obvious antithetical force emerging, those very same 1-20% will seethe contra production of continuing that course, since they themselves will place themselves into jepardy. We touched upon this previously, but i don't see any meaningful resolution, since we are still debating it without the core question, by skirting it with peripheral technical feasibility issues such as translation-transcription.
[size=50][/size]Allone's Obe issance



In answer to your prayer
sincere, the centre of
your circle here,
i stand ; and , without
taking thought,-
i know nothing. But i can

Full well your need-as
you be men
This: Re-Creation. With a
bow,
Then, your obedient

servant now.
One gift is all i find in me,
And that is faithful
memory
Orbie
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Tortis » Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:15 pm

Flannel Jesus wrote:
Tortis wrote:No, there are insurmountable barriers to human-level computer translation.

Very, very difficult barriers. Insurmountable? I wouldn't go that far. Language is complex, but it is extremely finite as well.

I would give translation less than 10 years before a computer can do it nearly as well as a professional. Better before 50 years.


Here's an interesting, in-depth exploration of the topic.

http://www.math.ku.dk/~m01mwm/The%20Lim ... 009%29.pdf

Your wife might enjoy it.

Here are the last two paragraphs:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As I showed in the introduction and in chapter 2, the history of machine translation has a
tendency to repeat itself. The fact that we always seem to have come three quarters of the way
again and again incites the hope that this time, we might be able to cover that last quarter. But
instead of inciting hope, this situation should perhaps rather remind us of the fact that drinking a
fourth beer always seems like a better idea after the first three.
And it would be appropriate to curb our enthusiasm, even though machine translation certainly
is an exciting challenge. Unlike the researchers looking ahead at a promising future from half a
century ago, we can no longer claim that we do not know the cost or the chances. Yet another
half a century of attempts to make “machines that think, that learn, and that create” (Simon and
Newell, 1958) would indeed be resources badly spent.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Flannel Jesus » Wed Nov 12, 2014 9:46 pm

The idea that we haven't advanced in algorithm design and computing and therefore we are bound to fail in the same ways seems pretty patently false to me. Yes, people failed at making machines do accurate translations before. Yes, they failed multiple times. If humanity just gave up every time it failed at something a couple of times, we wouldn't have come very far at all.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Thu Nov 13, 2014 12:16 am

Language is the competence to form infinte linguistic terms with a finite inventory of linguistic forms. It has much to do with thoughts, mentality, conceptions, beliefs, imaginations, conventions, experiences, awareness, knowledge, information, communication ... and so on. It is such a complex system that one could say that machines could never reach this high competence that humans have. But it is merely a question of time whether machines will be able to use language like humans do. So when?
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Tortis » Thu Nov 13, 2014 2:16 am

Flannel Jesus wrote:The idea that we haven't advanced in algorithm design and computing and therefore we are bound to fail in the same ways seems pretty patently false to me.


But that isn't my idea, or the idea in the paper I linked to. Computer translation doesn't fail because the algorithms aren't good enough, it fails because to be a good translator you have to know what it is like to live in our complex world of experience. There is an immense background of understanding about how the world works which we develop through experience.

I liked this example from the paper I linked to:

(a) The city councilmen refused the demonstrators a permit because they feared violence.
(b) The city councilmen refused the demonstrators a permit because they advocated violence.

"They" refers to the councilmen in (a) but to the demonstrators in (b).

You can't write an algorithm to deal with this. The knowledge that is required to understand who "they" refers to is part of the background of understanding of how the world works, which we gain through experience.

I translate all kinds of texts, technical, legal, commercial. Very often in all these cases the writer is trying to make the reader feel good about some things and bad about others. A technical writer might want you to feel bad about a machine component that fails. Lawyers want to make you feel good about their clients and bad about their opponents, companies want you to feel good about their products and services.

In order to translate something like that, you need to know what it is to feel good or bad, what kind of thing makes people generally feel good or bad.

So that's the insurmountable problem for computer translation. I've just given two examples, but the kind of problems for machine translation which they illustrate occur in almost every text.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:40 am

Tortis wrote:
Flannel Jesus wrote:The idea that we haven't advanced in algorithm design and computing and therefore we are bound to fail in the same ways seems pretty patently false to me.


But that isn't my idea, or the idea in the paper I linked to. Computer translation doesn't fail because the algorithms aren't good enough, it fails because to be a good translator you have to know what it is like to live in our complex world of experience. There is an immense background of understanding about how the world works which we develop through experience.

I liked this example from the paper I linked to:

(a) The city councilmen refused the demonstrators a permit because they feared violence.
(b) The city councilmen refused the demonstrators a permit because they advocated violence.

"They" refers to the councilmen in (a) but to the demonstrators in (b).

You can't write an algorithm to deal with this. The knowledge that is required to understand who "they" refers to is part of the background of understanding of how the world works, which we gain through experience.

English is not a very good example when it comes to understand any of all kinds of the linguistic reference. There are languages with a grammar that shows clearly all kinds of reference between the linguistic forms because the linguistic deep structure is more noticeable / distinguishable in that languages than (for example) in the English language. The linguistic deep structure can be learned by machines as well as knowledge and experience.

Tortis wrote:I translate all kinds of texts, technical, legal, commercial. Very often in all these cases the writer is trying to make the reader feel good about some things and bad about others. A technical writer might want you to feel bad about a machine component that fails. Lawyers want to make you feel good about their clients and bad about their opponents, companies want you to feel good about their products and services.

In order to translate something like that, you need to know what it is to feel good or bad, what kind of thing makes people generally feel good or bad.

So that's the insurmountable problem for computer translation. I've just given two examples, but the kind of problems for machine translation which they illustrate occur in almost every text.

It is not the insurmountable problem for computer translation. In the future machines will translate more effectively than humans.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby 1mpious » Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:46 am

Arminius wrote: But will all human beings completely replaced by machines? All human beings? All? And completely replaced? Completely? By machines? Machines?

The real truth of it is, many roles cannot be performed by machines.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Arminius » Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:23 pm

1mpious wrote:
Arminius wrote: But will all human beings completely replaced by machines? All human beings? All? And completely replaced? Completely? By machines? Machines?

The real truth of it is, many roles cannot be performed by machines.

Not yet, but in the future machines will be able to do it.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby James S Saint » Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:06 pm

There is absolutely nothing that a human can do that a machine cannot be designed to do better.

I can't wait to see the cyborgs and androids pleading, "Oh poor abused me." Then following it with a righteous indignation attack, wiping out all of mankind.
Clarify, Verify, Instill, and Reinforce the Perception of Hopes and Threats unto Anentropic Harmony :)
Else
From THIS age of sleep, Homo-sapien shall never awake.

The Wise gather together to help one another in EVERY aspect of living.

You are always more insecure than you think, just not by what you think.
The only absolute certainty is formed by the absolute lack of alternatives.
It is not merely "do what works", but "to accomplish what purpose in what time frame at what cost".
As long as the authority is secretive, the population will be subjugated.

Amid the lack of certainty, put faith in the wiser to believe.
Devil's Motto: Make it look good, safe, innocent, and wise.. until it is too late to choose otherwise.

The Real God ≡ The reason/cause for the Universe being what it is = "The situation cannot be what it is and also remain as it is".
.
James S Saint
ILP Legend
 
Posts: 25976
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 8:05 pm

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Orbie » Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:12 pm

I am very sorry, James, but i would really rather die a peaceful death in my bed, then to be wiped out by machines. If You can't wait to see that happen, You will be among ALL of mankind to be wiped out. There is no guarantee that it will be a very kind death with the human touch.
[size=50][/size]Allone's Obe issance



In answer to your prayer
sincere, the centre of
your circle here,
i stand ; and , without
taking thought,-
i know nothing. But i can

Full well your need-as
you be men
This: Re-Creation. With a
bow,
Then, your obedient

servant now.
One gift is all i find in me,
And that is faithful
memory
Orbie
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Posts: 7596
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby James S Saint » Thu Nov 13, 2014 5:17 pm

Twilight Zone, the original, had an episode concerning the displacement of humans by machines. Although Youtube has almost the entire TV series, they don't display that episode, but has the radio version if you have the time to listen to radio (can be more fun than you might think).

Clarify, Verify, Instill, and Reinforce the Perception of Hopes and Threats unto Anentropic Harmony :)
Else
From THIS age of sleep, Homo-sapien shall never awake.

The Wise gather together to help one another in EVERY aspect of living.

You are always more insecure than you think, just not by what you think.
The only absolute certainty is formed by the absolute lack of alternatives.
It is not merely "do what works", but "to accomplish what purpose in what time frame at what cost".
As long as the authority is secretive, the population will be subjugated.

Amid the lack of certainty, put faith in the wiser to believe.
Devil's Motto: Make it look good, safe, innocent, and wise.. until it is too late to choose otherwise.

The Real God ≡ The reason/cause for the Universe being what it is = "The situation cannot be what it is and also remain as it is".
.
James S Saint
ILP Legend
 
Posts: 25976
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 8:05 pm

Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Kriswest » Thu Nov 13, 2014 5:34 pm

I remember enjoying that series as a little kid.
I will be bitchy, cranky, sweet, happy, kind, pain in the ass all at random times from now on. I am embracing my mentalpause until further notice. Viva lack of total control!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is not a test,,, this is my life right now. Have a good day and please buckle up for safety reasons,, All those in high chairs, go in the back of the room.
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Re: Will machines completely replace all human beings?

Postby Wizard » Thu Nov 13, 2014 5:37 pm

Most humans already are "machines" and brain dead zombies. Do you actually believe the average person of average intelligence "thinks" about existence or lives a "worthy" life???

The difference between "human", machine, and zombie, is that people falsely believe a human is "higher, above, superior" than the others. But how is presumption justified?

People take humanity for granted. People convince themselves that they're much smarter than they are; because humanity is represented by something higher than humanity.


Humanity is a "right, entitlement, privilege" conferred by something above humanity, that turns homo sapien from merely animal into "something higher, pristine, godly, and divine".

Machines have already replaced human beings. Because human beings were machines (slaves) from the beginning.
phyllo wrote:Before the internet, there were these things called books. There were special buildings full of them.

James S Saint wrote:It is the mostly blind builders struggling against the entirely blind destroyers in an effort to find the light.
"The light is here"
"No it isn't"
"The light is there"
"I don't see it"
"The light exists"
"No it doesn't"

... on and on ...
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