The part that I have a hard time with is, what if we add another contestant or viewer partway through?
Suppose the scenario all plays out just as described in the example, and after that I turn on the TV and start watching. For me, I see 2 doors and a goat. From the two of them talking, I get the general idea that there’s a car behind one of the two doors, and a goat behind the other. It seems like in that situation, I’d have a 50/50 chance of picking the right door, if I didn’t know which one the contestant picked originally. Right?
Can someone explain to me how discovering which door the contestant picked would provide information that makes one door more likely than the other? What is it about the contestant picking door 1 that makes me go, “Ah, it’s probably door 2!”
Has anyone read ‘The Man Who Only Loved Numbers’? Some good stories in there about how some of the finest mathematical minds of our century couldn’t grasp this. For my part, I understand the proof I saw, but its still very counter-intuitive. If Paul Erdos didn’t understand it, I don’t feel so bad.
Be simple enough to test with 2 people and a deck of cards, wouldn’t it? The stats aren’t just numbers in space, if the example is right, switchng really should get you the car (or ace) 66% of the time.
someoneatwhatever is always making absurd and nonsensical claims that he doesn’t even try to justify. Of course his beliefs are irrelevant, its not just numbers in space, which anyone intelligent enough to operate a deck of cards should be able to find out for themselves. His beliefs won’t alter any probability when making the choices or the statistical outcome. Don’t expect any coherency besides complaints about my repeated use of the word ‘absurd’ sad and pathetic.
people don’t believe it only because they don’t ‘get’ it. It works out that way in the real world, regardless of personal opinion. thier lack of belief doesn’t change the probability difference between picking thier card or the non revealed. if they don’t believe, they don’t get it, because thats just how it works out. again master the playing card and get back to us.
How can a prediction be “unjustified”? It’s either going to turn out accurate or inaccurate between subjective opinions based upon the criteria it self-describes.
Men only gather around the predictions that keep proving themselves true, which is the error of taking science as a faith…
That’s exactly the definition of ambiguity – whatever a person is compelled to do is whatever a person is compelled to do.
The situation says nothing until beforehand or afterward in context, until it is discussed and made sense of, otherwise we’re just being. Actions speak louder than words, yes, but what are we doing here on this forum – acting or writing? Where do word acts begin and end? Is this even the problem at hand?
The hypothetical is a memory of something that may or may not be real, according to fiction or nonfiction. Predicating events based on hypothetical contexts are what men instinctively do in order to anticipate the exchange of gunfire. The hypothetical can be true when what is “true” is definitely going to happen (like that I’m going to drive my car within the next two hours).
I want some clarification…
Skepticism & Nihilism continually beg the question. Pragmatism ends it, so it also forces men to decide what is “valid” and what is “invalid”.
It’s only as flawed as flawed men allow it to be. The fallacy of logicians (and most other logically predicated sciences) is that they don’t know how, where, or when to update their language after mistaking it as an absolute authority. I won’t speak for others, but my authority rests in the same place I put my faith…
Ihate my threads degrading to this drivel. This is a testable prediction, people who don’t believe simply can’t wrap thier heads around it, as the same statistical results or close enough happens consistently in the real world WHEN TESTED. leave the BULLSHIT run of the mill arguments against science/statistical predictions until you can show that in the real* world they don’t routinely come true.
again i suggest a deck of cards for those people too incompetent to do the mental math if you don’t ‘get’ it grab some cards if the people in question thinks its faith 200 rounds with a deck will prove them wrong, the correct card *will be in the dealer’s hand consistantly enough to say the prediction is correct.
seriously not all my threads need to be dragged down by philosophy based on the standards of a seven year old. real world ideas have testable predictions, the worth of claims depends on the accuracy of those predictions, not any mental midget’s ideas about thier worth…