I believe the point that Cyrene is making is how cognitive probabilities are processed in more basic and “stupid” people. On a game show, for the host to pick all the incorrect doors and leave the final “chance” at 50-50, then people misinterpret that the odds of picking the correct door ends up as a 50% chance. In reality, those who are more intelligent see through the “game” of the “show” … that they detect that the host is misleading the contestant and the viewers (conceptually) by a “sleight of mind”. In the end, it appears as the pick comes down to a 50% chance, when in reality, the chance was very low to begin with (depending on the amount of doors w/goats behind them).
The “problem” here is how the probability changes in a real-time context. The human mind works cognitively in this manner (compared against an intelligent or ignorant person) by anticipating possible changes and adhering expectations toward them. Most people cannot account for this, because they are literally stupid. However, a more intelligent person will pick up on the clues and eventually understand that the door situation stayed consistent in context from the beginning to the end and the “game show” is a mere illusion to those who are fooled by it.
What would really throw such an “intellect” off is if the game show host randomly picks the correct door from time-to-time rather than leaving it to the last. Then, the odds become randomized again in expectation only … and the “game” loses its appeal (of anticipation of coming down to the final two doors rather than seeing the result straight-out).