ISIS (turkish websites call it ISIL) in Syria expanded into Iraq to find a economic and recruitment rear outside of Syria in a location Syria wouldn’t be able to follow, deep across a international border.
They used no more than under a brigade of heavy hitters, broken up into battalions who planned in advance where they were hitting.
The Iraqi government wasn’t maintaining the bribes and “power sharing” with the local tribes, who could be bought cheaply in the northwest, but is collectively expensive. ISIS offered more, and the bribes coincided with the invasion. A further insult to injury, many troops existed only on paper collecting paychecks due to poor esprite de corps… we ended the Iraqi mission too early, the Majors were not yet experienced enough, and not enough NCOs made it up through the ranks from private into leadership to warrant Obamas pullout.
The good news is, ISIS has dramatically overextended itself, and the Kurds fortifying Kirkurk are unlikely to make another expansion until the city is dug in, and even then, minor armor raids and strikes. ISIS took alot of weapons it cant hold short of shipping back to Syria, will rapidly run short of ammo for such weapons, and the money will be spent on backpayments, debt, and general corruption.
They are currently overstretched, holding a population they may personally identify with, but is overwhelmingly complex and unlikely to uniformly support them in return.
Likewise, the mass exodus from the newly captured cities has fueled resentment and a humanitarian crisis, many will provide intel, spy, scout, and enlist in militias and the regular army. They have a better chance at winning the hearts and minds of their neighbors at home than ISIS.
You will see IRAQ stagnate for a few weeks, with minor gains,bas it prepares a multi battalion mechanized strikeforce to move south of the theater and strike north into the Anbar and Jazeera, cutting off ISIS communications with Syria. Syria will step up its assault as well, hammering a ISIS force cut in half.
Mosul will be cordoned off in 3-4 months, with admin districts taken earlier. Southwest Falluja will experience a series of skirmishes. It will fall faster, but with heavier casualties as its unsuited for mechanized warfare.
Iranian Quds will form a portion of the Mosul strikeforce. Its unlikely to be publically announced.
Obama is being held back less by his ideology than by Turkey. Turkey has muxed feelings, being Hanafi Muslims themselves, but certainly want nothing to do with this shit, and are facing a scenerio where the Kurds ironically may be their most stable and trustworthy neighbor.
Turkey will not tolerate Iran in Iraq, and will back the Sunni population, minus ISIS, if Iran gobbles up Iraq. Iraq knows this, Iran knows this. Neither want a permanent NATO army effectively annexing Northern IRAQ. Kurds are paranoid the most about this, as Turkey has been known to invade Kurdish Iraq.
The US will primarily view this from Turkeys perspective, as out military borders are NATO’s borders… in a sense the US borders Iraq via NATO in the same sense Turkey borders Mexico, or France Sweden via Norway.
The Turkish consulate in Mosul was taken hostage, as well as 50 turkish truckers, released when ransoms are paid, then recaptured by another ISIS faction.
This is extreme extortion, certain to piss the Turks off. The US has substantial personal, especially Airforce, in Turkey.
I think its a bad idea to build this much naval activity in the persian gulf. Too easy to sink it.
ISIS doesnt know how to spread its convous out, or move paralell via multiple roads. Their commanders are horrible. I doubt they thought ahead beyond the shock and awe.
The Nietzschean analysis here in this thread is worthless, has no place in reality. I suggest a rereading of Machiavelli’s works on their part, and less musings on empires and dollars.
Airstrikes could in a sense end this quick, but ISIS would still be in both countries… and the siege pf the cities would take much longer once the remnants hunker down. Iran needs to be overtly discouraged, ISIS factions have to think Iraq is doing it so they surrender faster. If its just US strikes, then they will hunker down and hold what they have knowing we wont land troops to hit them. However, a rout and mass demoralization, way too easy here.
Possibility of Turkey joining, at 25%, if they do, very rapid end to Syrian and Iraqi war, as well as Kurdistan and independent Iraqi government. Only in name for a few years will it continue. US will back Turkey before anyone else.
Congratulations to the Kurds for retaking Kirkuk. Wish they could just conquer Iraq, Syria, and Iran too.