Let's Start World War III! Get ready To Rumble!

Mictlantecuhtli · February 22, 2016, 8:45pm

A Furious Turkey Says US Is “Acting Like An Enemy,” Demands Washington Brand Kurds “Terrorists”

As you might have noticed, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is about to lose his mind with the situation in Syria.

To be sure, the effort to usurp the Bashar al-Assad government wasn’t exactly going as planned in the first place. Regime change always takes time, but the conflict in Syria was dragging into its fifth year by the time the Russians got directly involved and although it did indeed look as though the SAA was on the verge of defeat, the future of the rebellion was far from certain.

But to whatever extent the rebels’ fate was up in the air before September 30, the cause was dealt a devastating blow when Moscow’s warplanes began flying sorties from Latakia and while Ankara and Riyadh were initially willing to sit on the sidelines and see how things played out, once Russia and Hezbollah encircled Aleppo, it was do or die time. The supply lines to Turkey were cut and without a direct intervention by the rebels’ Sunni benefactors, Moscow and Hassan Nasrallah’s army would ultimately move in on Aleppo proper and that, as they say, would be that.

The problem for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar is optics. That is, everything anyone does in Syria has to be justified by an imaginary “war on terror.” Turkey can’t say it’s intervening to keep the rebels from being defeated by the Russians, and similarly, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the US, France and everyone else needs to preserve the narrative and pretend as though this all doesn’t boil down to the West and the Sunnis versus the Russians and the Shiites.

Here’s what we said earlier this month: somehow, Turkey and Saudi Arabia need to figure out how to spin an attack on the YPG and an effort to rescue the opposition at Aleppo as an anti-ISIS operation even though ISIS doesn’t have a large presence in the area.

Well it turns out that’s an impossible task and so, Turkey has resorted to Plan B: a possible false flag bombing and the old “blame the Kurds” strategy.

The attack on military personnel in Ankara this week was claimed by The Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (an offshoot of the PKK) in retaliation for Turkey’s aggressive campaign in Cizre (as documented here), but Erdogan has taken the opportunity to remind the world that the PKK and the YPG are largely synonymous. That is, they’re both armed groups of non-state actors and if one is a terrorist organization, then so is the other.

Erdogan’s anti-Kurd stance is complicated immeasurably by the fact that both the US and Russia support the YPG out of sheer necessity. The group has proven especially adept at battling ISIS and has secured most of the border with Turkey. As we noted way back in August, it was inevtiable that Washington and Ankara would come to blows over the YPG. After all, the US only secured access to Incirlik by acquiescing to Erdogan’s crackdown on the PKK, but some of the missions the US was flying from Turkey’s air base were in support of the YPG. The whole thing was absurd from the very beginning.

Well now, Turkey is not only set to use the fight against the YPG as an excuse to intervene in Syria on behalf of the Sunni rebels battling to beat back the Russian and Iranian advance, but Ankara is also demanding that the US recognize the YPG as a terrorist group. If Washington refuses, “measure will be taken.”

“If the Unites States is really Turkey’s friend and ally, then they should recognize the PYD — a Syrian branch of the PKK — as a terrorist organization. If a friend acts as an enemy, then measures should be taken, and they will not be limited to the Incirlik Airbase, Turkey has significant capabilities,” Erdogan advisor Seref Malkoc told Bugun newspaper.

So yeah. Turkey just threatened the US. It’s notable that Malkoc specifically said actions would go “beyond Incirlik,” because pulling access to the base would be the first thing any regional observers would expect from Ankara in the event of a spat with Washington. For Turkey to say that measures will go beyond that, opens the door for Erdogan to become openly hostile towards his NATO allies.

“The only thing we expect from our U.S. ally is to support Turkey with no ifs or buts,” PM Ahmet Davutoglu told a news conferenceon Saturday.“If 28 Turkish lives have been claimed through a terrorist attack we can only expect them to say any threat against Turkey is a threat against them.”

In other words, Turkey is explicitly asking the US to support Ankara’s push to invade Syria and not only that, Erdogan wants Washington to sanction attacks on the YPG which the US has overtly armed, trained, and funded. “The disagreement over the YPG risks driving a wedge between the NATO allies at a critical point in Syria’s civil war,” Reuters wrote on Saturday. “On Friday, a State Department spokesman told reporters Washington would continue to support organizations in Syria that it could count on in the fight against Islamic State - an apparent reference to the YPG.”

Right. “Washington will continue to support organizations in Syria that it can count on in the fight against Islamic State.” So we suppose that means the US will support Russia. And Iran. And Hezbollah. But most certainly not Turkey, who is the biggest state sponsor of the Islamic State on the face of the planet.

zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-2 … terrorists

Mictlantecuhtli · February 23, 2016, 3:43pm

What Could Go Wrong? Saudis Want To Give Surface-To-Air Missiles To Syrian Rebels

When the Russians started flying from Latakia on September 30 it put the Syrian opposition in a decisively precarious situation.

Whereas the Syrian air force was largely out of date and relied on replacement parts and continual maintenance to remain viable, Moscow brought one of the most formidable sky attacks on the planet to a fight against rebels with zero air capability and exceptionally limited capacity to defend themselves against an aerial assault.

Starting in October, the Russian Defense Ministry began posting video clips (hundreds of them) depicting strikes on a variety of rebel and militant targets and The Kremlin also went out of its way to capture full color, HD footage of Su-34s and long-range bombers in action over Syria where the opposition was quite simply powerless to defend itself.

For about a month (sometime between mid-November and mid-December) it appeared that President Obama was right. The fanfare around the initial wave of Russian airstrikes had subsided and the push north to Aleppo appeared to have stalled. The “quagmire” it seemed, was real. Then, suddenly, Hezbollah surrounded Aleppo and reports indicated the Russian air force had implemented what amounts to a scorched earth policy when it comes to the militants battling Iranian forces.

Once it became apparent that the country’s largest city would soon be recaptured by forces loyal to Assad, both Turkey and Saudi Arabia began to weigh their options. A ground assault by Ankara and Riyadh would be a veritable nightmare for the US and the West. It would invariably devolve into a direct conflict with Iranian forces and the first time a Russian jet hit Saudi or Turkish troops the world would be plunged into a global conflict with the potential to drag every nation in the developed world to war.

So far, the Turks and the Saudis haven’t invaded, although Ankara is now shelling the YPG in the Azaz corridor in an effort to roll back Kurdish efforts to consolidate border gains. According to Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, Riyadh’s next move may be to introduce surface-to-air missiles so that the rebels will be able to defend themselves against the Russian air attack.

“Is Saudi Arabia in favor of supplying anti-aircraft missiles to the rebels?,” Der Spiegel asked al-Jubeir on Friday.

zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-2 … ian-rebels

Mictlantecuhtli · February 23, 2016, 3:46pm

Mictlantecuhtli · February 23, 2016, 3:47pm

Mictlantecuhtli · February 23, 2016, 5:41pm

Mictlantecuhtli · February 23, 2016, 5:45pm

Mictlantecuhtli · February 23, 2016, 5:55pm

Mictlantecuhtli · February 23, 2016, 6:50pm

24 Hours After Syrian “Ceasefire” Deal, Nobody Trusts Anybody

On Monday, the US and Russia announced that an agreement on a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria had been reached.

The deal applies only to groups not deemed to be “terrorists” and that determination will supposedly be made by Washington and Moscow with the proper deference to UN designations.

On Tuesday, Bashar al-Assad said his government (or whatever is left of it) is prepared to abide by the terms. “The Syrian government announces its acceptance of a halt to combat operations on the basis of continuing military efforts to combat terrorism against Daesh, the Nusra Front, and the other terrorist organizations linked to it and to the al Qaeda organization, according to the Russian-American announcement,” a statement reads.

But Damascus also warned that foreign interference (i.e. from Turkey or Saudi Arabia) threatens to undermine the deal. “Foreign support to armed groups should be halted” in order to “prevent these organizations from strengthening their capabilities or changing their positions, in order to avoid what may lead to wrecking this agreement.” In other words, if Ankara and Riyadh continue to meddle, Damascus will call the whole thing off and you can bet Tehran will support that decision.

As for the rebels, they wholeheartedly agree with our assessment from Monday. “There are al-Nusra elements everywhere,” we said. “Russia will always be able to claim that its warplanes are targeting parties not subject to the agreement because the situation on the ground is impossibly fluid.”

The deal “leaves a significant loophole by allowing further attacks, including air strikes, against Islamic State, Nusra and other militant groups,” Reuters noted yesterday, adding that “Bashar al-Zoubi, head of the political office of the Yarmouk Army, part of the rebel Free Syrian Army, said that would provide cover for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian allies to keep attacking opposition-held territory where rebel and militant factions are tightly packed.”

“Russia and the regime will target the areas of the revolutionaries on the pretext of the Nusra Front’s presence, and you know how mixed those areas are, and if this happens, the truce will collapse,” he remarked.

Right. And that’s precisely what we’ve been arguing for months. This has virtually no chance of succeeding and you can bet that Moscow and Tehran will indeed use Nusra’s presence in the west as a pretext for more bombing. Below, find the ISW’s latest rundown of al-Nusra’s operations in Syria. As you can see, their geographic dispersion makes it exceptionally difficult to pin down where they’re concentrated.

Jabhat al Nusra’s Fighting Force & Geographical Footprint Jabhat al Nusra’s organization consists of:

A fighting force of at least 3,000-5,000 fighters, according to open sources in 2013. The planning group estimates but cannot assess from open sources that this number has likely grown by several thousand fighters as of December 2015
At least 19 training camps in Western Syria36
Foreign fighters, comprising at least 30% of its force
Ethnic subunits,38 including Chechens, Uighurs, Moroccans, Saudis, Uzbeks, and Europeans.
Jabhat al Nusra operates:

Across eight of Syria’s nine western provinces in rural and urban terrain, including Damascus. Primary zones of military strength include
Aleppo City
Jabal Turkman region of Northeastern Latakia Province
Jabal Zawiya region in Southern Idlib Province
Quneitra Province along the Golan Heights.
Meanwhile, The Pentagon and the CIA are suspicious of “sneaky” Russians:

PENTAGON, CIA CHIEFS DON’T THINK RUSSIA WILL ABIDE BY SYRIA CEASEFIRE–OFFICIALS
PENTAGON, CIA CHIEFS WANT WHITE HOUSE TO READY PLANS TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON MOSCOW
So in short, no one trusts anyone and thanks to the “terrorist” loophole, everyone has free reign to keep attacking everyone else.

And speaking of “terrorists,” expect Turkey to continue his assault on the YPG in the Azaz corridor on the excuse that the group is simple the Syrian arm of the PKK, which both Ankara and Washington identify as a terror organization.

zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-2 … y#comments

Mictlantecuhtli · February 23, 2016, 6:56pm

Meno2 · February 24, 2016, 7:46pm

The cease fire is not a time out.It is, according to the latest edition of the New York Times, a series of new construction attempts to bring current policy issues in line with the internal politics going on in the United States.

There is no doubt, at least in my mind, that the power brokers internally, in the US, are watching effects over I. The Middle East, and vica versa.

In addition, some potential GOP nominees, very low on the totum pole , in terms of votes, are staying in, in effect realizing, that they have been reduced to playing games. These games are constructed in effect, as calculated effects, to bear significant consequence, somewhat in accordance to game theory. In essence, the GOP participants are in violation of the tenets of game theory which subscribe to mutual co operation, in stead, seem to project the negative of that, the expectation of gaining some political capital, the accumulation of negotiating power, whereby staying in may result more benefits.

The racial, and terrorist issues dominate the field, as consequential to the immigration issue, and hence, the manipulation of simulated changes in preception set the political machine of reality making in motion, both in the US, and abroad. How different it was to put Obama into the White House, when an undermanned was needed, to profligate the idea, that yes, the system was broke, but it could be fixed.
The recession gave the big time losers some time out to short their depleted capital, by buying into the the idea,my that capital loss could be shorted, and made into a venture capital tool. So did during the Great Depression, many who realized this, made tremendous wealth. including Mr. Trumps father, in New York real estate. They too, fought virtual battles, and established a blood line of relevant ideology in terms of staying power.

This is what is going on today, and as self interest dictates, masked in proto fascist type of divisive rhetoric filled process, do the eternal return of Marx’s famous dictum re-apply again, that there is no memory with which the mistakes of history may be re-thought.

But since the game has shifted to the universal insight of political cause and effect, with a cartoonish I spy-you spy effect, the consequences re fairly indeterminable, giving a pause to reassemble and differentiate reality from political gander.

It is almost a play within a play, and the power motive is purely ascribable in military terms, spits strictly a capitalist game at heart. There is no need panic, Mr.Trump has come here to re-affirm the potency of Capital to overcome the tech Big Brother from grabbing away his assets. Tech big brother , of course, is the legitimate purveyor of true to heart game theory, which has appeared of late to slide toward the social left wing concerns of society at large.

Meno2 · February 24, 2016, 7:49pm

Sorry, 2 times the message.

Dan1 · February 24, 2016, 10:22pm

ok i deleted the second msg / clone.

Dan1 · February 24, 2016, 10:23pm

A friend of mine, Diane, thinks that trump will start world war 3 somehow.
She did not go into finer details. Our time to chat was limited.

Mictlantecuhtli · February 25, 2016, 3:48am

That very well may be the case. I really don’t think it matters who the United States president is going to be.

There is no escaping the global calamities coming our way…

No president whoever it is will change all that.

Dan1 · February 25, 2016, 3:52am

I really suggest you make some kind of stash for completely dehidrated beef jerky.
Not just beef. Any jerky.

Mictlantecuhtli · February 25, 2016, 3:56am

Nah, just arms and weaponry.

I’ll ransack a couple of mansions or wealthy houses for all my needs or desires…

You see, my plan is to start my own elite gang when things go down. I already have a handful of recruits at my disposal.

We’re all ready to go. You can’t believe the numbers of poor disenfranchised men everywhere with nothing to lose looking for anything to believe in…

All of them just need the correct push, guidance, and direction. From somebody like myself for instance.

Dan1 · February 25, 2016, 4:04am

Theft instead of trafficing heroin?
Normally it’s customary to claim to be god’s mouth piece when making recruits.
If you are honest, you will sound like our beloved papa Hitler.
After that, make endless farms for opium, weed, etc.
If you doubt the system, why not remember just how wonderful and hateful God is.
The system was made by God. When I take a shit, it was made by God.
If someone dies, it is God’s will.
If you kill a few people, it was God’s doing, God’s will, not mans.
Maybe they died to relieve us of our sins?
People are still imperfect, after all. So, we need more death and curses and punishment.
Enough curses and death can cure all of society’s ills.

I can’t stress enough the importance of heroin machine gun wielding prophets.

Mictlantecuhtli · February 25, 2016, 4:09am

Dan~:

HaHaHa:

Nah, just arms and weaponry.

I’ll ransack a couple of mansions or wealthy houses for all my needs…

You see, my plan is to start my own elite gang when things go down. I already have a handful of recruits at my disposal.

Theft instead of trafficing heroin?
Normally it’s customary to claim to be god’s mouth piece when making recruits.
If you are honest, you will sound like our beloved papa Hitler.
After that, make endless farms for opium, weed, etc.
If you doubt the system, why not remember just how wonderful and hateful God is.
The system was made by God. When I take a shit, it was made by God.
If someone dies, it is God’s will.
If you kill a few people, it was God’s doing, God’s will, not mans.
Maybe they died to relieve us of our sins?
People are still imperfect, after all. So, we need more death and curses and punishment.
Enough curses and death can cure all of society’s ills.

I can’t stress enough the importance of heroin machine gun wielding prophets.

Nah, I prefer the mafia or warlord approach. Our organization will revolve around raw violent brutality.

We’ll profit in military arms, women, and all the plunder we loot. You see while everybody is busy killing each other for political or national ends when it all comes down to it I’ll be the guy profiting in between the scenes with a sort of local underground black market. Everybody will be too busy fighting over national and political ends while me along with my merry crew will be fighting for profit or our own elevated power.

Dan1 · February 25, 2016, 4:13am

If your group agrees on things, it’s actually a mini-democracy.
You all vote who gets the money, or you split it up evenly, after each successful raid.
That is good old, perfect, holy democracy.
You can feel an ease of conscience.
The mafia has its own laws and rules, instead of using national law.
They feel they are just, in their own way. Some of them don’t, but maybe you’d be surprised,
the kinds of things people can become fond of.

Mictlantecuhtli · February 25, 2016, 4:17am

Not exactly, I’ll be the leader of my group. There isn’t really a vote on that. We will however split our plunder or spoils evenly and mutually amongst ourselves.

We wouldn’t raid a place either without discussing it amongst each other and having a common agreement amongst all members of the organization.