Election one month from today: crystal ball

[Peter_Kropotkin]

OK kids, this election is finally (thank god) over in one month from today and
this is how I see this one playing out.

This election is about 8 states that are still close (close means polls are less then 6% for one candidate for another)
This information is via real clear politics, which is a conservative web site.
Each state was a red state last election (voted for bush) I will give the state and the latest poll results
Ohio: Obama leads by 3.8% Fla: Obama 3.1% Nevada: Obama 1.8% North Carolina: Obama 1.5%
Missouri: Obama 0.3% Indiana: McCain 2.5% Virgina: Obama 4.8% Colorado: Obama 4.0%
The rest of the states polls are pretty clear one way or another for example Wisconsion: Obama 6.7%

Now the next step is the electoral collage. As of right now Obama has a lead 264 to McCain’s 174 with toss up being 111
with 270 being winner.

Intrade which is a betting site that gives daily tracking of bets made on whether Obama or McCain wins, as of right now
has Obama winning 69.2 vs McCain 30.5.

If every state breaks for the person in the polling lead right now, Obama has a massive electoral lead of 364
to McCain’s 174, but of course not every state will break for the leader of the polling as of right now.

If there is no October surprise, I give Obama a large win including Virgina, Nevada, Colorado
all red states last election. I don’t see McCain winning a blue state.

Given the GOP outright theft of the last two presidential elections, there are too many states in play
to steal this one.

The senate will fall somewhere around 55 to 60 democrats and a large majority of
democrats in the house. The GOP senate losses will include Minnesota and North Carolina and Alaska
(Coleman, Dole, Stevens)

So even if the GOP manages to steal this election, it will be with a democratic senate and a democratic house
with possibly a veto proof senate with an veto proof house.

I also predict McCain will suffer a stroke within a year and retires, no matter who wins.

Kropotkin

[d0rkyd00d]

There’s always the possibility Obama gets assassinated…it wouldn’t shock me. He is black.

[someoneisatthedoor]

@d0rkyd00d

There’s always the possibility Obama gets assassinated…it wouldn’t shock me. He is black.

Lincoln was white. Kennedy was white. Reagan was white.

There is no precedent for a US presidential candidate being assassinated due to being black.

Up until recently I thought McCain was a sure thing. Not because he’s a better candidate, but because he has more support where it matters. But the more I read about Obama’s shady background (and no you liberals, that is not a racial slur), the more I think he might just be corrupt enough to win.

We’ll see. I’m still going for the guy named after the chips and the bird from Alaska.

[d0rkyd00d]

Lincoln was white. Kennedy was white. Reagan was white.

There is no precedent for a US presidential candidate being assassinated due to being black.

Dude…you are too much sometimes. But I am mentally masochistic, so here goes.

Of course there’s no precedent, because there’s never been a black president. I believe there are certain qualities that would increase the likelihood of a president being assassinated, and unfortunately, one of them is race. It doesn’t help that his middle name is Hussein, and many crazies are already decided that he’s a Muslim extremist. Motivation for murder? You betcha.

But the more I read about Obama’s shady background

You racist.

[someoneisatthedoor]

@d0rkyd00d

Lincoln was white. Kennedy was white. Reagan was white.

There is no precedent for a US presidential candidate being assassinated due to being black.

Dude…you are too much sometimes.

The girth of my penis is a private matter.

But I am mentally masochistic, so here goes.

Like, totally.

Of course there’s no precedent, because there’s never been a black president.

Presidential candidate, I said. But regardless, there have been numerous senior black politicians in the US and I don’t know of any that have been assassinated because they were black.

I believe there are certain qualities that would increase the likelihood of a president being assassinated, and unfortunately, one of them is race.

Even though all prior presidential assassinations/attempts have been on white people?

It doesn’t help that his middle name is Hussein, and many crazies are already decided that he’s a Muslim extremist.

So nothing to do with him being black?

Motivation for murder? You betcha.

I would have thought the fact he’s a large state socialist would be a greater motivation, though of course American socialism is inverted and used as a means of subsidising large corporations.

But the more I read about Obama’s shady background

You racist.

Get bent.

[d0rkyd00d]

Presidential candidate, I said. But regardless, there have been numerous senior black politicians in the US and I don’t know of any that have been assassinated because they were black.

People generally don’t assassinate senior politicians…

Even though all prior presidential assassinations/attempts have been on white people?

Despite that, yes.

So nothing to do with him being black?

There are various factors, but him being black is certainly one.

I would have thought the fact he’s a large state socialist would be a greater motivation, though of course American socialism is inverted and used as a means of subsidising large corporations.

You thought wrong.

Get bent.

I will, after work.

[someoneisatthedoor]

@d0rkyd00d

Presidential candidate, I said. But regardless, there have been numerous senior black politicians in the US and I don’t know of any that have been assassinated because they were black.

People generally don’t assassinate senior politicians…

You what? Of all the possible careers in which one is somewhat likely to be assassinated, politics has gotta be up there with traffic wardens and hookers.

[Ingenium]

I think the point is that there’s never been a black presidential candidate that anyone seriously considered would actually end up occupying the Oval Office. This increases the danger, and I think his campaign is fully aware of that.

[bike_seat]

he’ll lose because he’s part black

srsly

[Ingenium]

Americans are culturally unable to see “part black”. Although we’ve evolved these days to acknowledging ‘biracial’ because we pretty much have to. But that’s more about physiology than it is culture. And there are still plenty of protected little bastions of denial, like little pock marks around the landscape.

It used to be that having one drop of “black blood” (not sure which drop they were referring to) gave cause for whites to label persons as black. Because, of course, whites could do such labelling and then act accordingly in terms of what the label meant.

Really, if you study American history regarding these matters (and I mean the actual history, not the, er, whitewashed one), it’s makes Obama’s viability truly amazing. Pretty much the only ray of light that I see in what are otherwise turning out to be rather dark times.

[someoneisatthedoor]

@Ingenium

I think the point is that there’s never been a black presidential candidate that anyone seriously considered would actually end up occupying the Oval Office. This increases the danger, and I think his campaign is fully aware of that.

Obama’s only half black, and he’s from the political class. I think we learnt from Condy Rice that being black or female or part of some other ‘minority’ makes no difference.

[d0rkyd00d]

@someoneisatthedoor

@Ingenium

I think the point is that there’s never been a black presidential candidate that anyone seriously considered would actually end up occupying the Oval Office. This increases the danger, and I think his campaign is fully aware of that.

Obama’s only half black, and he’s from the political class. I think we learnt from Condy Rice that being black or female or part of some other ‘minority’ makes no difference.

Makes no difference in regards to what exactly?