OK kids, this election is finally (thank god) over in one month from today and
this is how I see this one playing out.
This election is about 8 states that are still close (close means polls are less then 6% for one candidate for another)
This information is via real clear politics, which is a conservative web site.
Each state was a red state last election (voted for bush) I will give the state and the latest poll results
Ohio: Obama leads by 3.8% Fla: Obama 3.1% Nevada: Obama 1.8% North Carolina: Obama 1.5%
Missouri: Obama 0.3% Indiana: McCain 2.5% Virgina: Obama 4.8% Colorado: Obama 4.0%
The rest of the states polls are pretty clear one way or another for example Wisconsion: Obama 6.7%
Now the next step is the electoral collage. As of right now Obama has a lead 264 to McCain’s 174 with toss up being 111
with 270 being winner.
Intrade which is a betting site that gives daily tracking of bets made on whether Obama or McCain wins, as of right now
has Obama winning 69.2 vs McCain 30.5.
If every state breaks for the person in the polling lead right now, Obama has a massive electoral lead of 364
to McCain’s 174, but of course not every state will break for the leader of the polling as of right now.
If there is no October surprise, I give Obama a large win including Virgina, Nevada, Colorado
all red states last election. I don’t see McCain winning a blue state.
Given the GOP outright theft of the last two presidential elections, there are too many states in play
to steal this one.
The senate will fall somewhere around 55 to 60 democrats and a large majority of
democrats in the house. The GOP senate losses will include Minnesota and North Carolina and Alaska
(Coleman, Dole, Stevens)
So even if the GOP manages to steal this election, it will be with a democratic senate and a democratic house
with possibly a veto proof senate with an veto proof house.
I also predict McCain will suffer a stroke within a year and retires, no matter who wins.
Kropotkin