Is a coin more likely to flip tails if it has already flipped heads a bunch?

Philosophy Forums Science, Technology, and Math
1749

Ah, I see you are also wedded to a different definition of “given”.
Wikipedia again shows that there is another common technical use of the word:

A given is a statement or a condition assumed to be true or known, often to explain or give an example of something

Shortly after that, it links to the page for “axiom”, which I think better describes the concept I’m referring to (and also has fewer alternative meanings):

An axiom, postulate, or assumption is a statement that is taken to be true, to serve as a premise or starting point for further reasoning and arguments.

Do you agree that this concept is distinct from a guess before the evidence?

1750

An assumption could be a best guess, so a best guess could be a given.
A given could also be a fact. A given could also be false but believed to be true.

For some people it is a given that God exists. That is not a fact, it is a belief by some people. It’s just taken to be true even though there is no evidence supporting that belief. It is faith which is an assumption not supported by the evidence.

1751

Could be, but not necessarily. Because they’re distinct concepts.

You can just say, “yes, they are distinct concepts.”

1752

A guess before the evidence can be a given, because as your quote says, “assumed to be true.” There might be no evidence supporting that assumption, which is faith. Faith is a belief not supported by evidence.

1753

Can be, but not necessarily. Because they’re distinct concepts.

You can just say, “yes, they are distinct concepts.”

1754

A given is not a concept it is simply a “starting condition” prior to the evidence. A given is just a prior condition. It is just what is available prior to the main idea.

You still haven’t answered this question:

Do you agree that the more days the sun rises the less likely it is to rise the next day?

How Likely Is The Sun To Rise?
1755

An instance of the concept is not itself a concept, but I am talking about the concept.

Correct.

1756

A simple yes or no will do. Avoiding it makes it look like you don’t want to answer it because it blows your ship out of the water.

1757

You are telling on yourself.

1758

No, it’s YOU that is avoiding the question. Why?

1759
1760

Stop the press everybody, Motor’s right, he hit the bullseye, and when you go to the doctor and ask “what are the chances I have cancer?” it makes total sense for him to say “it’s 50/50”.

:smiling_face_with_three_hearts:

1761

You either do or you don’t.

Or you could ask the good Doc, “How likely is it for a smoker of 40 years like myself to have lung cancer?”

He might respond with, “35 out of every 100 people that smoked for 40 years get lung cancer.”

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1762

Yup, this is a totally normal thing for doctors to say. 50/50, you either do or you don’t, lol.

1763

And when I ask him how many pair of shoes do I have if I have 4 shoes, it is totally normal for him to reply “6 pair.”

1764

You found a doctor whose hobby is set theory, that’s interesting

1765

You found a Doc that knows that 1 in 2 chance is 50/50.

1766

One of the only other people in the world who speak MotorDaddian English.

1767

The rest of the people fall into the lower 99.999%. Not everybody can be a genius.

1768

Yeah, you’re a genius and everyone else is a moron lmao.

1 Like