I agree.
Anyone that thinks 4 shoes is 6 pair of shoes is a complete moron.
It gives new meaning to having 4 Aces in poker; 6 pair. 3 Kings is now 3 pair.
1 Like
“Pair” is another word that has multiple meanings.
The phrase “a pair of apples” means “two apples”. But “a pair of shoes”, means something like “a left shoe and a right shoe intended to be worn by one person at the same time”.
You have found some fun word games to play using the double-meanings of this and other words, but they don’t have anything to do with the conversation.
(see Equivocation).
My point in the other thread was not so much about the likelihood of the sun rising tomorrow, but that that likelihood DECREASES as more days elapse.
That is similar to a coin that continues to flips heads. The more heads that occur the LESS LIKELY it is for another head to occur the next flip. You simply can’t keep flipping heads continuously without a tail happening. The more heads you flip the less likely it is for another one to occur.
It’s all the same concept as my car example, or YOU waking up tomorrow. The more times something occurs the less likely it is to occur the next time. That’s just the way the universe works. Nothing lasts forever.
The likelihood to stay the same decreases as time elapses. It doesn’t matter whether it’s flipping heads, or waking up the next morning, or the sun rise, or the car starting, the likelihood DECREASES as time elapses.
We resolved this already:
1 Like
Good, so you agree that the more flips in a row that land on heads the less likely it is for the next flip to land on heads. So flipping 9 heads in a row means that flip 10 is not 50% likely to land on heads. Flip #1 was 50%, and as the flip count increased with one more head result, the likelihood of getting another head decreased. So flip #1 was 50%. Flip #2 was less, and after 2 heads in a row flip #3 was even less.
So as something occurs more times it is less likely to occur the next time than it was for the first time. That means the “50/50” is changing to say 51/49, then 52/48, then 53/47. If it was a coin landing on heads, the 53 was for a tail to occur and the 47 was for another head to occur.
We all agreed, you included, that this isn’t the case. You said “I stand partially corrected” – this was the thing you stood partially corrected about.
I’m just going to make you argue with yourself.
I stand by my statements that every single flip has a 1 in 2 chance, or 50/50.
When you consider the previous flips then you are not talking about a single flip you are talking about the last flip of multiple flips. The last flip of multiple flips of being all heads means the likelihood of being another head is lower than it was the first flip.
The single first flip had a 50% chance of being heads. As the coin was flipped more and more heads the likelihood of ANOTHER HEAD was decreasing.
So then what did you stand corrected about?
That when considering a single flip after say 20 heads in a row that the chance for a single flip would be lower due to the previous 20 heads in a row. I figured out that was mixing concepts, which you still have not figured out.
So you used to think the word “chance” meant “probability”, and you changed your mind to your new definition where “chance” is defined by the number of possible outcomes?
I figured out that a single flip has a 1 in 2 chance of landing on heads, and that a single flip is not including the past 20 flips.
Ah, you figured out after all that time what the phrase “the next flip” refers to, I see.
A single flip has no past.
Fascinating. You convinced a lot of people that you actually came to understand the probabilities of the situation, but… it doesn’t look like that happened at all. Very interesting.
When you stop mixing concepts then everyone will see the lightbulb above your head light. It’s still dark there.
You took over a year to realize “the next flip” refers to one flip, man. It’s really hard to take your insults of my intelligence seriously.
Because the “next flip” is not flip 21 after 20 heads in a row, it is flip 1 of 1 that has not occurred yet. Flip 1 of 1 can not be head 21.
A pair of Kings is 2 Kings.
I have:
King of Spades
King of Clubs
King of Hearts
So I have 3 pair, right?
Spades-Clubs
Spades-Hearts
Clubs-Hearts
That’s how you do it so I can too!
You seem really caught up in this, maybe this will help you out:
When someone asks “how many HH are there?” they might be asking “how many Hs are followed by another H?”
In THHHT there are 2 Hs followed by another H.
Now maybe that’s not what you meant to ask when you asked Carleas the question initially, and if it’s not, just specify the stipulation that there’s no double counting. Is there some reason you don’t want to specify that?
Edit. Here’s a place where people are interpreting it in the way we are: r - Coin flip game: HH vs HT in a sequence of flips - Cross Validated