The GOP Should Use Instant Runoff Voting For Its Primaries

In the New Hampshire primary this year, Donald trump won with only 35.3% of the vote. Many more voters would have preferred one of the establishment candidates (Kasich 15.8%, Bush 11.0%, Rubio 10.5%, Christie 7.4%), but it’s likely that these candidates acted as spoilers for each other, that someone voting for one of them would have preferred any of them to Trump. But because of the way voting is done in most primaries (i.e. not caucuses), that preference is lost, and Trump wins with a plurality, and his campaign continues to gain momentum.

The GOP should have used Instant Runoff Voting (IRV), or any other voting method where preferences are ranked, to eliminate the effect of spoilers. For instance, in IRV, voters rank the candidates in order of preference. If no candidate gets a majority of the top-ranked votes, the lowest candidate is eliminated, and those votes are given to those voter’s second pick. The process is repeated until a candidate has a majority of the votes.

This voting method would more accurately reflect the electorate’s preference, in particular as candidates drop out of the race and the vote can be reevaluated to make sure that delegates are awarded as voters would have liked.

Hopefully, the debacle that continues to unfold in the GOP will encourage them to look to systems that would prevent a similar outcome in years to come.

Ummm… your trying to figure out how to stop a guy like Trump from running in the future, aren’t you?

If your able to see from the statistical data, that Trump would not of been most people’s primary or secondary choice… then why not just figure out a way to compute it using the votes from the first time around, instead of making people vote in hypothetical blind?

How many voters can sit in a voting Booth, with no chair, and work out on the spot

If Not A, Then B, if not B, then D, but never C, but G before F, E… oh fuck me… where is E in my list of priorities of hypothetical, machine crunched election bouts? I want my vote to count under these hypothetical situations.

You vote goes to who it goes to, once… you got a choice for a range of candidates. This is a deep insult and most certainly can hurt a candidate running for the long run in other states to have his position weeded out formulaically in later state races. Not everyone runs for president, some are running for visibility of ideas. No one state primary decides the nation.

We are a presidential system, not a parliamentary system, we aren’t looking for a consensus coalition, we want the top alpha. He has to consistently win majorities around the US to win. Its for a strong executive… now if we ever say fuck Congress, America 4.0 will have a Parliament under a new constitution, then yeah… Prime Minister should be chosen that way.

Hey, isn’t Microsoft counting all the electronic votes across the country?

I’m sure we can trust a national corporate entity like that. What’s the worse that could happen? :sunglasses:

Worst that can happen is you could be elected.

Nobody wants President Joker. How much of the gold reserve can be loaded onto airforce one prior to Joker going into voluntary exile in Russia?

If I was the president I would be sitting all day in the Oval Office contemplating pushing the red button for missile launches to save us all the trouble… :laughing:

Only after I do a Bill Clinton reenactment under the desk with a secretary…

Red Button is kept the next room over actually.

Am I the only one weirded out staples has a red Easy Button, and the White House gas a Red Nuke Button?

Sadly, both buttons require less steps than Carleas ballot plan.

What’s the debacle exactly? Is it just that Trump is the Worst Ever or that all good people should know that He’s the Worst Ever and something must be wrong with the system if he’s winning? From a pure numbers perspective, I don’t see anything going on here that’s different from past years- when you’ve got more than 3-4 people running in a primary, it’s extremely rare for anybody to be getting 50%.

And I am no way saying I like how the electoral college is handled, I would prefer direct voting percentages, see no point in electing delegates with super delegates, but political parties aren’t written into the constitution, they are a side effect. They can parallel the government, have the same people in charge of government in charge of their party apparatus, but never ARE the actual government. Actual government is composed of Judges, Votes and hearings in Congress, and the executive administration. That is the actual government. Political parties can choose their members through who can piss farthest as far as the constitution is concerned.

What concerns me, is major political parties, both on national and state levels, should in principle align themselves in a process similar to how the election to the actual office should unfold. It gives the candidate experience and realism campaigning. I get the idea behind super delegates… those in charge currently want to have a say about new members, but it’s kinda sickening to see Sanders do so well, and have a few ideological assholes months in advance already side with Hillary. Those delegates carry quite a bunch, and shouldn’t have a say in a close election. Its like Mormon Theodemocracy… resembles US Constitutional law unless it is a tie-breaker situation, and only then does some Mormon prophet come mumbling out delivering Gods will to break the tie. Its a rather ugly system, wouldn’t be accepted by other sects (Mormons admit other non mormon sects operate under Theodemocracy). Thats a stabbing offense there… Superdelegates are almost as bad.

Oh… and Carleas… your proposal is illegal in the state of West Virginia… half the state would be under arrest if your idea was passed as it is.

freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1047412/posts

No wait, it has been stripped it looks like, thats part of our old law. Good to know, always hated it.

We had weird primary laws that prohibited anyone from voting differently in a primary than in a election… it looks like it’s been progressively stripped away.

Explains now how the state went blue to red, more democracy.

If nobody was certain how they actually voted in the primary "I voted for X, but X was disqualified by fuzzy DC math… and the devotes put their choices second, third, fourth tier up in the final count, a lot of people wouldn’t recall who they actually voted for. We would of been arrested in mass under Carleas system back under the old rules. Like… whole state hypothetically would be disqualified from voting save a handful if the contest was tight.

Trump is not the worst, merely bad. It is Hillary who is the worst amongst all candidates. But, she is not in the focus. Majority of the voters either want Trump’s win or defeat.

That is where the actual fight is going to be, if he becomes an official GOP candidate, which is quite possible.

If I were a US voter, and would have to choose between Trump and Hillary, I would have chosen Trump 10 out of 10 times. Having said that, I would have never voted for Trump in the GOP primaries, but for anyone else who is most likely to beat him, for the simple reason because I do not want Hillary to win the presendial election, thus would use my vote to ensure her defeat from the very beginning.

This is called tactical voting, which is used effectively mostly to stop any such candiade who is the most popular yet do not have the support of more than 50% voters.

Let me give a real example to explain this phenomenon.

Present Indian PM and his party is the most popular in the India right now with having the vote base around 38-39%. It does not change much in any election but result vaties hugely.

His winning and losing depends on index of opposition unity. Being a multiparty system, whenever he has to face ununited opposition, he invariably wins handsomely, otherwise loses badly. This happens because just like Trump, he is the most liked and most disliked politician at the same time, and becomes the crux of the any election by default.

Very recently, elections were held in the state of Bihar in India. Two years back, Modi’s party got around 39% of the votes in that state and won 90% of the seats. This time, though his party got almost the same votes but for only 1/3 of the seats. That happened because three other parties came under some sort of election arrangement and put joint candidates. So, all those voters, who do not want Modi’s party to win, voted for those unified candidates. This does not mean that those voters liked those candidates. Their only interest was to ensure the defeat of Modi’s party, thus they consolidated behind those candidates who can defeat Modi candidates.

This is precisely going to repeat in the upcoming US election, if there were Trump and Hillary facing each other. The problem with Trump is that even being the most liked candidate, he is also disliked by even more voters. And, as he would have only one candiade in his opposition, thus all his dislikers would rally behind the other sole candidate.

Trump is not fighting with anyone but himself.

With love,
Sanjay

Trump has a political base that traditionally doesn’t vote, and Hillary’s Democratic core doesn’t like her… it’s hardly a monolith, new generation less likely to be enthusiastic.

US doesn’t mandate it’s population votes, and so it’s gonna be who is most pissed off voting for her.

I’m independent, so don’t vote in primaries. I still wouldn’t vote for Trump unless it was a Trump vs Hillary… he is a much wiser choice than her. I’m tired of getting stuck in stupid wars like with ISIS, a better president would of prevented that from occurring in the first place. Libya would have Qaddafi with NATO/African Union peacekeepers instead of the current mayhem, etc. Things went crazy under her watch… I’m not looking forward to round 3 of the continuation of this mayhem.

Perhaps, for the first time, I have to agree with Turd.

I do not like Trump either, but i dislike Hillary that much that I do not mind voting for anyone who can defeat her.

This election is all about only and only Trump so far. My understanding is that though the majority of US voters may not like Hillary much, but they do not dislike her either. She does not matter much for them in either way.

But, the same cannot be said about Trump. He is highly liked and disliked too, and that only issue will decide the election.

But, Hillary would have that advantage only if Trump would be on the opposite side. If GOP puts any other candidate, other factors would become dominnant, including Hillary’s own credentials.

Thus, at the end of the day, it is up to the GOP preliminary voters to decide whether they want any GOP candidate to win the presidential election, or merely want Trump to become an official GOP candidate.

There is still some time left for GOP voters to give their party a fair chance in presidential election, if they stop succumbing to the meaningless rethoric of Trump.

With love,
Sanjay

See… that’s where you consistently fail in logic, you think rhetoric is meaningless. Its very much a part of logic. I can’t sniff you trump’s actual political position, so he is a blank check is in this regard, but it’s hardly meaningless.

For a long time in philosophy we had, and still to a large degree, can scoundrels who claimed they could separate the ideas from the man. This isn’t possible, ideas are generated and processed via feedback loops in the mind, affiliation and further actions cascade off this. Trump plays both angles, but consistently runs as a Republican (what that really means in his mind us anyone’s guess), but as a populist, he has to stay in tune with the emotional state of the population. He can’t offer rhetorical arguments like I am free to do, to alienate his consistuents. For me, it’s a path to encouraging people to engsdge in Self Examination and Catharsis… Trump needs to keep people on his side for reelection.

End result is, he us less principled but more responsive, but to whom? That isn’t meaningless, quite the opposite, quite meaningful, but it is to whom?

In the US, our more backwards populations is still far better educated and self aware than the educated in many western countries. Look at the guys on this forum… a lot of homeless scroundrels, high school drop outs, better red in philosophy than your average philosophy professor in any university across the planet. Capable of a diversity of opinions. It isn’t self evident just who in each state is running out to vote to Trump, but it’s not the people the left is claiming, or Carleas is claiming (warrior ethos or something along thise lines he blaimed)… it’s people who feel deeply ignored and neglected, wronged, completely disempowered from the last two elections, especially from Obama. Many families in the US gave up relatives in countless wars for the republic, we knew the laws, supported them, and we see the country left in tatters. Its turning into a Banana Republic quickly. Tea Party didn’t do shit, the establishment watered down every attempt to reassert their attempts to get reelected… if Republicans went too right, Democrats would take over, or vice versa… end result was a hopeless morass constantly looking for the next election, instead if acting now.

I’m very serious when I look at Trump as the incredible hulk grabbing shit at random telling and screaming, breaking. I would much rather have every Democrat a Bernie Sanders socialist, every Republican Trump or Rubio or Carson… at least we could work on honest compromises, pass bills on a constitutional basis (Obamacare remains unconstitutional, never started as a bill in the House, I will never give a penny to it till it’s voted on legally).

Who he will be breaking for is up in the air. I think Trump, he is smart enough to sense there is a generational change, knows the country is sick of the old politics. I’m hoping after smashing his first year or two in, he gets bills passed from playing both sides of the isle on a bipartisan basis… with the kind of results that satisfy everyone.

Just… I can’t guess in advance what that will be, other than Poll Booths charging a Perry peso at the Mexican Border to pay for the wall (and Mexico will pay it President Fox, you can’t get in without doing it).

Thats the only obvious piece of legislation. If he comes out and says Ben Carson will be Surgeon General, we can more or less guess his plan will replace Obamacare… which absolutely must be placed, it’s economically unworkable financially as it is, and we need to figure out the baby Boomer issue. Having legal laws with the backing of Congress and the consent of the people is way better that a thoughtless black hole of a mess we currently have. If he doesn’t bring Carson on, I’m very stumped what will replace it. Its a financial absolute, the program has to be chopped, or we discover a gold mine on government land to pay for it, as it us, like Athens did with it’s fleets and silver mines. I hear of no reports of a large gold mine, so it means bye bye Obamacare, by defaukr. What replaces it? With Trump, I don’t know.

You’re over-complicating it. It’s not some intricate logic came, it’s an ordered list of your preferred candidates: A, B, D, G, F, D. Pretty straight forward, and it is used in the real world, both in the US and in other countries.

The “you get one vote” argument misses the point: IRV better reflects the preferences of the electorate. If there are 5 candidates, the least popular candidate can win with 21% of the vote. He’s another way to put it: let’s say 11% of the population is suicidal. Now say we have an election for “Thing People Want the Most”, and here are the candidates:

  1. An island mansion,
  2. 100 million dollars,
  3. a supermodel spouse,
  4. fame
  5. immortality
  6. true love
  7. a small sovereign state
  8. super powers
  9. drug induced bliss
  10. death

If items 1-9 are equally people’s top choice (say 1-8 get 10% of the vote, and 9 gets 9%), then this election will result in 10, death, being the Thing People Want the Most. Since we’ve already stipulated that only 11% of the population is suicidal, we know that that is false, it is a given that 89% of the population doesn’t want death the most. That outcome is absurd, and IRV would solve it.

For the GOP, the debacle is that the presumptive nominee is probably going to tear the party apart, and most of the party would have preferred a more mainstream candidate. It’s not just that 4 candidates split the mainstream vote and propelled a fringe candidate to victory, it’s that that fringe candidate is much more likely than average to fracture the party and realign national politics. If you’re the GOP, that’s a once-a-century shitstorm, and IRV would probably have prevented it.

OK, I get that. I was just trying to pin down if it was purely the nature of the candidate you’re trying to fix, or if something actually went uniquely wrong with the process.

Yeah, I’m really just taking advantage of a situation to promote a reform that I see as valuable in general :-" I don’t think this situation is uniquely wrong, or even wrong per se, since I expect Trump will get actual majorities in some of today’s primaries. But IRV might well have stopped or slowed Trump’s campaign in New Hampshire; Bush and Christie might well have stuck around, the establishment candidates might well have beaten Trump, and the momentum of the election could have been very different. If you’re the GOP bosses, that’s a reason to consider IRV.

I’d like to see IRV or some sort of ranked voting in all our elections. It captures more information about what the electorate wants, and I think that’s a good thing (and it’s hard to argue otherwise without taking an anti-democracy stance). That kind of reform is not likely to happen all at once, but the parties could possibly implement it more easily, since they’re quasi-private (though my knowledge of the law here is admittedly poor). If people see it work there, and produce candidates that more of the party is happy with, they might support it as a political reform in other elections.

Nothing wrong with that! I was just curious if I was missing something, numbers/delegates wise that made this election substantially different from past elections.

I wonder what effect instant run-offs has on the voices of minor candidates.

Last I heard, he was edging close to 50% RNC support nationwide.

I certainly don’t mind the idea of IRV at all. I looked at it backwards and forwards with my usual conservative ‘nothing must ever change’ attitude, and it seems ok. The parties can basically do what they like re: primaries, and this might be something to explore. For real federal elections though, sounds like the kind of thing that might take a constitutional amendment, since the electoral college is written right in there.

Another message deleted upon trying to post!

I’ve been looking further into it, I am going to have to retract my statement that this suggestion by Carleas is legal now in West Virginia, it appears only one portion of the law was struck down. I’m hoping I can find evidence it has been fully repealed, but it isn’t looking good, I see it still mentioned on some election law sites that are current.

I can lose my vote, if I write down a alternative, and my alternative is selected, if I wrote in my primary on a petition for office. I’m a bit murky on what would happen to petitioners in this set up… that portion has been partially struck down by court. As it stands, until proven otherwise, I’m going to have to say it’s illegal here. You got 49 other states to try this on however.

And Carleas, I didn’t miss your point, I already answered it, you just didn’t understand the tangent.

We live under a presidential system, not a parliamentary system. A lot of political scientists think a presidential system is less sound and prone to chaos and collapse than a parliamentary system. We happen to be the black sheep in the family of presidential republics that isn’t a shithole banana republic. One of the reasons why, in my opinion, is we really put strong emphasis on inclusive representation, it’s actually wider on the party level than the federal level… we’ve seen presidential campaigns in territories such as Puerto Rico for delegates. Sometimes the only time people notices a group or region is when the absurdities of multi state campaigning narrows down a state, or set of rural counties, for support. Anyone is potentially in play… you got better odds living in Iowa than in the Brooks Range of Alaska to be reached out to admittedly, but each election is different, and everyone is in play.

Your talking about mathematically eliminating sections of the population to express their vote. Where do you think third parties come from? Its from elections like these.

What are these states pulling these math games, systematically eliminating the votes of the people as insufficient and invalid? Is it Parliamentary Democracies like Turkey, where Erdogan was at peace with the Kurdish parties in his own country, his policies upsetted him, they broke off his alliance… he failed to fain a majority, and so called for relections, eliminated that party in a still ongoing civil war, one Noam Chomsky is screaming and kicking about (my fault for not bringing this to the forum’s attention earlier).

These rules exist to give a mathematical sense of pleasure and completement of a ideal majority, a OUGHT over 50%. What they result in is hung Parliaments like in Ireland when consensus can’t be reached, and the collapse of the administration… new elections are called constantly in such countries.

Why? Because politics is naturally dual in nature. Political parties will counter one another over time, however absurd this position ultimately is, in a bid to gain majority. Successful political parties eventually get tied up into just two major coalitions, both parliamentary and presidential. Both political systems show echoes of the other. I’m not sure it is wise to import one of the more unstable, self destructive elements of parliamentary government into a successful presidential system, we are after all one of the few that actually works. If we are going to move in any direction, it should be one the basis of being more inclusive, not eliminating ideas, denying candidates, and giving the rights of coalition alliances to just the dominant movements in a election. Why the hell should any swing state, or swing district, listen to a candidate for election, if they know their vote for their concern has already been forecast to come in last place in politics? Your lesser known candidate championing your cause is gonna get squeezed out… one of the larger candidates will swallow your area by default… it encourages political laziness on the campaign trail. It literally cancels out our ability for wide swaths of each state to have a say, only people who get to have a say are the populated, urbanized areas who vote in bloc. Nobody will pay attention to outsider votes. Regional issues will never be able to become national because every politician will just focus on this minority, till they wash away all the little people around them, letting only their voices be heard.

No… I don’t support this just for a mathematical satisfaction. Many elected for the executive choose their competition who ran on long shot campaigns as vice presidents, or cabinet members. It gives a chance for consensus coalitions like in parliamentary democracy, without government being dismissed, or pogroms launched, or civil war incited on mathematical technicalities. If it gets too damn close, we flip a coin. We don’t pull these second and third world hooligan stunts suppressing the electrolate so a minority heterodoxy can swallow up all the little fish, declaring itself the Orthodox Big Fish. Our impulse to divided governments in representative government is a coalition building game, it solves these issues on it’s own democratically. People tend to find representation, but only if they are seen politically worthwhile. Your idea makes everyone’s vote that much less if they aren’t in these big groups, which themselves are often just stubborn minorities to begin with.

Rhetoric cannot be a part of main logic, ever. Having said that, just a little bit of it is necessary to explain the actual point, not beyond that. The purpose of the logic is explain/communicate implied premises and thus driven explanations. That is all.

Rhetoric is just like a seasoning in any dish. A pinch of it binds the different flavors of dish together and makes it edible. But, you cannot make any edible dish merely from salt and pepper. There has to be some basic ingredients there in the first place, then one can add a little of salt and pepper. Remember, you can once eat any vegetable without seasoning, but you cannot eat seasoning alone without any base ingredient.

The same is the relation between logic and rhetoric. Logic can serve its purpose without rhetoric but it may become tasteless and hard to swallow. A little bit of seasoning of rhetoric will make it tasty, thus could be eaten easily and willingly.

There is no blank cheque there, Trump or anyone else. All cheques are filled and signed at that every moment when cheque books was handed over.

Turd, do you think that Trump would do anything much different from what Hillary would do, or Obama has been done so far! No, not at all. All Trump supporters are mistaken and he is making fool all those all along by portraying himself outsider or victim of the establishment. I am a bit surprised why people (including harcore politicians) cannot see what he is doing.

Right now, he is just playing to the gallery, to his targeted audience (extreme GOP voters) to get the nomination. And, once he would achieve that, you will see his tone changing completely, and very conveniently, he will pass on all the blame on media by saying that he was misquoted and misinterpreted all along, as he is not that kind of person as was portrayed in the public.

Being a TV personality so long, he knows very well how to become popular. He is playing the game of this is what i truly am, or i am not hippocrate like other politicians or i say what i mean etc. This is precisely the strategy what participants of reality shows like Big Brother often use to gather the sympathy and votes of the outside audience. The only difference is that he is playing this in real politics. That is all.

You think that because you are not aware of what is happening around the world. Turd, there is a lot of world that resides outside US, and do not that sure of all that.

But, you are forgetting that people used to say the same at the time of Bush also, and Obama won too. But, what actually changed on the ground in last 8 years?

That is precisely what he wants you to see; he, as a last man standing or a lone wolf amongst the sheep.
In the tv terms; Ray Donovan.

But, US needs Jack Bauer of 24 fame, not Ray Donovan.

With love,
sanjay

This is precisely what I was referring to. There is no more mr Trump Hulk, as Turd described that. He already started to shift gears and now playing a good boy though he has not got nomination yet. He will continue to do this flip-flop as the election process goes on.

With love,
Sanjay