As currently worded, I would arguably have to score the second as failed if Trump follows through on his plan to appoint Musk to co-lead a task force/advisory commission. When I made that prediction, I intended a formal position, e.g. some role acknowledged by the constitution or the legislature, with actual decision-making power (e.g. for RFK I had in mind specifically director of the NIH, which Trump had said he’d do during his campaign).
But that’s not what I said, and an appointment to a made up thing that does nothing is arguably an “appointment in come capacity” – though the counter is that “capacity” excludes complete impotence.
While subsequent events make me more confident of my originally intended predictions, I’m going to leave the confidence as originally written and clarify the ‘capacities’ to which I was referring:
- RFK will be appointed to a role in government created by Congress or requiring Senate approval. (80%)
- Musk will not be appointed to a role in government created by Congress or requiring Senate approval. (70%)
That’s not a perfect translation, but it gets the job done in an objective way. And if Congress turns the Musk Commission into an actual department with Musk as head, that would count as a failed prediction.